ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 did you hear?....KIm Jong Il died What do you mean of course he knows he is Kim Jong-Un. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 did you hear?....KIm Jong Il died Bin Laden got killed too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 soooo.... ya' think this will still be out of tonight's 3Z SREFs range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Sometimes the GFS makes me wonder just what exactly it smoked before it ran... makes sense, this does not: Epic snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 soooo.... ya' think this will still be out of tonight's 3Z SREFs range You can extrapolate for us that should just about nail it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 So the 18z GFS shows something somewhat similiar but five days later than the EURO. And 48 hours sooner than the 12z GFS run although that one was well west of the area until it bombs out north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Sometimes the GFS makes me wonder just what exactly it smoked before it ran... makes sense, this does not: 6 inches for Nola, Jax, and Biloxi? Sure, why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Weve been there before with the euro. I mean I'm not adamantly writing it off like past storms but let's not read things that are not there. just stating that the Euro and its ensembles are in agreement with an amplified solution, while the GFS and its ensembles are in agreement with a flat solution. not sure what you see that's not there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 just stating that the Euro and its ensembles are in agreement with an amplified solution, while the GFS and its ensembles are in agreement with a flat solution. not sure what you see that's not there? im just saying i dont think it's that meaningful that the euro ens is not flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 im just saying i dont think it's that meaningful that the euro ens is not flat. fair enough. I think it is important, at least in the argument of amplified vs. flat in the day 6 to 8 period. the fact that we're in the sweet spot on the last two runs of the Euro is not important...i think we both can imagine a number of ways that an amplified solution can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 another 0.66 inch today. Been damn wet since mid august. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I know one thing, if I see an effin' butterfly flying around between now and Tuesday morning, it's dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 fair enough. I think it is important, at least in the argument of amplified vs. flat in the day 6 to 8 period. the fact that we're in the sweet spot on the last two runs of the Euro is not important...i think we both can imagine a number of ways that an amplified solution can go wrong. i suppose. it just seems in other instances of the op being overamplified the ens was as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 not to get a storm thread started but seems someone should at least create a jan thread since we're discussing something in jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 not to get a storm thread started but seems someone should at least create a jan thread since we're discussing something in jan. Paging PsuHoffman, please start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 i suppose. it just seems in other instances of the op being overamplified the ens was as well. the Euro has had a monster trough in the east now since the 12/24 12Z run's Day 10 if consistency means anything, idk, sometimes "yes" and sometimes "no", but ya' never know if this time it's a "yes" until after the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 not to get a storm thread started but seems someone should at least create a jan thread since we're discussing something in jan. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 the Euro has had a monster trough in the east now since the 12/24 12Z run's Day 10 if consistency means anything, idk, sometimes "yes" and sometimes "no", but ya' never know if this time it's a "yes" until after the event i dont think it's cut and dry that it wont happen (though it seems unlikely it would happen as 12z shows)... but in a convoluted scenario it's hard to imagine the best case scenario. plus i dont think it's a lie to say the euro has not had its best times over the last 2 cold seasons even if it still spanks most of the other models overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Done. cool.. i think ppl can close up any loose ends here but we should move the discussion out of the dec thread going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Done. As long as it's not Ji im thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 i suppose. it just seems in other instances of the op being overamplified the ens was as well. there are instances where that has been true, but that's expected because the ensemble can be biased to the ops (e.g., sometimes it is difficult for them to have radically different solutions), especially if the reason for a poor forecast is related to something in the initial conditions/model physics. however, in this case, the Euro has been steady in showing amplification for several runs now, but the same could be said for the GFS who has had consistent flat solutions in both the ops and ens. large scale pattern changes are typically poorly forecasted....maybe reality lies somewhere in between the two. I just like having something to look at again, i was getting a bit bored at work, being productive and all, during this terrible pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 i dont think it's cut and dry that it wont happen (though it seems unlikely it would happen as 12z shows)... but in a convoluted scenario it's hard to imagine the best case scenario. plus i dont think it's a lie to say the euro has not had its best times over the last 2 cold seasons even if it still spanks most of the other models overall. that's the problem...even if it has more skill than the GFS overall, it skill lacks a lot of skill at day 7-8....It is very possible that it is more right than the GFS with the amplitude of the ridge, yet we still get no storm or an OTS solution....I am less worried about day 7-8 when day 4-5 are so different....the 500mb patterns are widely divergent by 100-120 hours.....I assume we will see the models come to some agreement on that within the next 48 hours....It isn't like the GFS is just missing a phase or something...it isn't even remotely close to having a storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Its so windy it looks like it is snowing up. Ground is white again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 With warmer temps on the way for the end of the month, I thought it would be interesting to note the coldest December temps at DCA: Coldest high: 43 (11th and 17th) Coldest low: 29 (11th, 12th and 19th) Today and tomorrow could contend with these, but I would say it's not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Its so windy it looks like it is snowing up. Ground is white again. Looks wintery on the various webcams and good snow making weather. Imagine white grass will scratch out a few areas for x country? Good to see some winter close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 a few brief snow showers here this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 looks like a few rain/sleet showers moving through...a few puff balls on the deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Snow and sleet here with rain mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Saw some snow flakes while on my ride home in Gaithersburg... just enough to notice it was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Very windy here. Was out earlier getting the dog's nails trimmed, and really experienced some strong winds. The place I take him is slightly elevated and very flat. I was fooling with him and his leash, and it knocked me off balance. Very strong. I'd have to guess around 50, but that's just a guess. The local obs don't match up with that, but it was very strong. Unfortunately, my neighbor has had a very large tree fall on their home. I've seen them out looking at the damage. It hit their deck first, broke the tree, and now the large part is on the decking at an angle with large pieces on their roof. Looks like the tree is about 18 inch diameter. I plan to go see if they need help after I give them some time to recover from the shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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