ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 not even close...much flatter Give it time, i am betting that by tomorrow night it will look closer to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Too bad the euro loves fantasy so much lately it's probably way overamplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Too bad the euro loves fantasy so much lately The gloves will come in handy next week either for snow or cold, so i hope you brought them back with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Give it time, i am betting that by tomorrow night it will look closer to the Euro. yes...cause the euro might suck by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 How much snow did you guys get? Figured it had to be at least a foot based on the posts of some in that region crowing about the "white Christmas." Dusting only here...looked pretty for 5 minutes Hope something good hits you folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 what have I missed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 yes...cause the euro might suck by then Lol had not thought of it that way, but your probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Man, the euro and gfs are really at odds with each other on the ridge out west. They are really far apart. If I had to guess I would say the euro is really overdoing it because the gfs looks pretty much like what we've been seing for weeks. Progressive troughs and boring winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 it's probably way overamplified maybe, i'd be concerned if the Euro ensembles were really flat, but just by looking at the ensemble means...there are far more amplified members than flat members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Somebody right now is furiously refreshing the 18z GFS looking and extrapolating for any sign of the Euro storm. The 144 hr GFS says no way. It's way too far east with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The gloves will come in handy next week either for snow or cold, so i hope you brought them back with you. I'd like to believe but I don't have it in me to weenie out given the current circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Going way out on a limb here, but... it is possible the 18Z GFS at 8 days out is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 soooo its gonna snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 maybe, i'd be concerned if the Euro ensembles were really flat, but just by looking at the ensemble means...there are far more amplified members than flat members. Weve been there before with the euro. I mean I'm not adamantly writing it off like past storms but let's not read things that are not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It doesnt even have a storm to suppress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Man, the euro and gfs are really at odds with each other on the ridge out west. They are really far apart. If I had to guess I would say the euro is really overdoing it because the gfs looks pretty much like what we've been seing for weeks. Progressive troughs and boring winter weather. the biggest pause for concern I have is the GFS beat the Euro on the Christmas storm where Euro had something, GFS didn't, then GFS won lala land storms, almost guaranteed to be disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the GFS also closes off the trough over Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the GFS also closes off the trough over Maine idk, ever other mr model has the big trough except the GFS how often does the GFS score the coup against all the other mr models at Day 7? but, I guess it's happened before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Man, the euro and gfs are really at odds with each other on the ridge out west. They are really far apart. If I had to guess I would say the euro is really overdoing it because the gfs looks pretty much like what we've been seing for weeks. Progressive troughs and boring winter weather. Going back to last year, the Euro has consistently erred by overdeepening surface lows along the SE coast at this range. I remember seeing the Euro spitting out 940 MB lows over hatteras last year. The GFS seems to be more accurate at low pressure strength at this range while the Euro is quite a bit better at locating the storm tracks at this range. At least that's my impression from watching these weenie fantasies evolve over the past two seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 what have I missed? Nothing, most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Going way out on a limb here, but... it is possible the 18Z GFS at 8 days out is wrong. It's possible all the euro, gfs, euro ensembles, gfs ensembles members are all wrong. I always feel uncomfortable when the ridge has to amplify strongly and then you get a closed low that is 4 or 5 standard deviations from normal in terms of depth. The solution is possible but wow, it's forecasting a rare event. Weaken the ridge and you get a different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 idk, ever other mr model has the big trough except the GFS how often does the GFS score the coup against all the other mr models at Day 7? but, I guess it's happened before The ukmet doesn't so not all models look like the euro. The ggem does. I don't look at the nogaps cause it stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well it's only a week late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Heh, the gfs does have the euro solution. It's just @ hr 276-300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 At least it does not have us torching through almost the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Going back to last year, the Euro has consistently erred by overdeepening surface lows along the SE coast at this range. I remember seeing the Euro spitting out 940 MB lows over hatteras last year. The GFS seems to be more accurate at low pressure strength at this range while the Euro is quite a bit better at locating the storm tracks at this range. At least that's my impression from watching these weenie fantasies evolve over the past two seasons. yea, the Christmas storm last year was a Cat 2 hurricane pretty much on the Euro from this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The ukmet doesn't so not all models look like the euro. The ggem does. I don't look at the nogaps cause it stinks. yeah, it doesn't have the deep trough, but it has a much more substantial one than the GFS; this is Day 6 as I can't find anything beyond that http://meteocentre.c...hh2=120&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Sometimes I wonder who's a bigger weenie, DT or JI at least he says it's not a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Sometimes I wonder who's a bigger weenie, DT or JI at least he says it's not a forecast. did you hear?....KIm Jong Il died Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Sometimes the GFS makes me wonder just what exactly it smoked before it ran... makes sense, this does not: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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