Huffwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 hr 192 euro ens a real decent match If we start to hedge that the troff is too sharp, I like our lower lattitude relative to DC for a minor + event (Maybe2-4, 3-6 range) Heck, i'd be thrilled for a 1-3 inch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 wow...too bad its 8 days out and it shows low pressure in Greenland that isn't going to change...we can't expect the ATL to help us...even worse is the pos height anomaly off the maritimes...the pattern is quick....we need the trough to close off in a way that won't hurt us...good luck to us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 i think with the way this winter is going...i see no harm in trying to track anything that remotely shows snow on the models..even if it is 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 that isn't going to change...we can't expect the ATL to help us...even worse is the pos height anomaly off the maritimes...the pattern is quick....we need the trough to close off in a way that won't hurt us...good luck to us!! DT isnt even following his own eastern snowstorm rules. But this is all we have right now and its better than the severe blowtorch forecasted by Donald Sutherland for jan 1-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...2zsnowf180.html Looks like 0 of the GFS Ensemble members show anything at all. Not that it matters too much, but anyone know what the UKMet says? While we're at it, what about the JMA? Brazilian? NOGAPS? CRAS? DGEX? FMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 i think with the way this winter is going...i see no harm in trying to track anything that remotely shows snow on the models..even if it is 8 days out. thanks for your permission....the euro showed a K/U...there isn't a single person who isn't going to track this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Somebody right now is furiously refreshing the 18z GFS looking and extrapolating for any sign of the Euro storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Somebody right now is furiously refreshing the 18z GFS looking and extrapolating for any sign of the Euro storm. People in glass houses should not throw stones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 People in glass houses should not throw stones. I haven't even checked the GFS yet because I know it's nowhere near the fun time frame. I will shortly though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Somebody Everybody right now is furiously refreshing the 18z GFS looking and extrapolating for any sign of the Euro storm. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I haven't even checked the GFS yet because I know it's nowhere near the fun time frame. I will shortly though! Until Wes becomes more optimistic i cannot get on the boat with you and Kate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Until Wes becomes more optimistic i cannot get on the boat with you and Kate. the problem is we are stuck....we have a real air mass this time....the only way to get unstuck is for every model to lose the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the problem is we are stuck....we have a real air mass this time....the only way to get unstuck is for every model to lose the storm Yes but can't this very easily become a cutter if the ridge sets up to far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 You can always tell when RIC is getting bombed on the Euro. DT is invested. Not fully yet, but he's in. he's all in....100% of his stack in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 he's all in....100% of his stack in the middle He is always all in when it shows Richmond getting a foot of snow. He is as much IMBY as me and the rest of the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yes but can't this very easily become a cutter if the ridge sets up to far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I cannot see what you posted all i see is an X and it says posted image next to it. I have been having this problem for a long time now with a lot of images on the forum and i cannot figure out why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The GFS won't do what we want. It never does what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 NOGAPS? CRAS? DGEX? FMA? It was hilarious that just before I posted that, someone actually did post the JMA. Let me be clear I was kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The GFS won't do what we want. It never does what we want. I'm not sure we want it to at this stage. Do we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yes but can't this very easily become a cutter if the ridge sets up to far west. I don't think that is likely. Possible but not likely. IMO- our biggest enemy would be for the trough to end up not being sharp enough and having anything of interest shear out and quietly move ots to our south. What the euro shows is a standard +pna. It really stinks that the atl refuses to cooperate. Everything has to be placed and timed just right without a -nao. I hate that part of the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 How much snow did you guys get? Figured it had to be at least a foot based on the posts of some in that region crowing about the "white Christmas." I saw like 22 snowflakes. What a terrible flight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 that was a great movie! for its time, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 he's all in....100% of his stack in the middle I guess his stupidity has gone viral based on the email chain ii see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I don't think that is likely. Possible but not likely. IMO- our biggest enemy would be for the trough to end up not being sharp enough and having anything of interest shear out and quietly move ots to our south. What the euro shows is a standard +pna. It really stinks that the atl refuses to cooperate. Everything has to be placed and timed just right without a -nao. I hate that part of the setup. I will take that over a cutter any day, and even if this does not pan out it is just exciting to have something legitimate to track after this disaster of a December. Deep down though all of us are praying it threads the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Maybe some flurries or snow showers on sunday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS so far looks nothing like the euro upstream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS so far looks nothing like the euro upstream... At least it looks cold early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 not even close...much flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 not even close...much flatter Too bad the euro loves fantasy so much lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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