Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Its amazing how this board comes alive with a back to back Euro bomb. I think it's time for Midlo to post the pop eyeballs GIF. One of the funniest things I have ever seen on a forum. DT John Holst: a dumb post. the OCT 28 -29 severe e northeaster snowstorm that dropped 1 foot and smashed records was picked up by Most models 7-8 days out... the massive xmas east coast storm later winter was seen 7-8 days out.... the BIG event are seen many days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 DT John Holst: a dumb post. the OCT 28 -29 severe e northeaster snowstorm that dropped 1 foot and smashed records was picked up by Most models 7-8 days out... the massive xmas east coast storm later winter was seen 7-8 days out.... the BIG event are seen many days out The weenie playbook!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The weenie playbook!! Must I remind you...This is NOT, I repeat NOT a forecast but when it happens exactly as depicted, I called it 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Must I remind you...This is NOT, I repeat NOT a forecast but when it happens exactly as depicted, I called it 1st Yep it's a no lose game . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yep it's a no lose game . only 15 more euro runs until the 1st flakes....lalala lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Dear god, STFU with ships and buses Boat. Plane. Ship. Bus. I am going to mention the Tracker Bus as much as I can in every storm and every possibility now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yep it's a no lose game . So now we have 8 days of watching model runs; the final four days sleepless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 List of people not allowed to start a thread on this threat (feel free to add): me Ji Ian Randy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 only 15 more euro runs until the 1st flakes....lalala lock it up! Lock it, Having a fantasy storm does enliven the threads, Will's post is lol as is DT non forecast weenie map. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 DT John Holst: a dumb post. the OCT 28 -29 severe e northeaster snowstorm that dropped 1 foot and smashed records was picked up by Most models 7-8 days out... the massive xmas east coast storm later winter was seen 7-8 days out.... the BIG event are seen many days out You can always tell when RIC is getting bombed on the Euro. DT is invested. Not fully yet, but he's in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 List of people not allowed to start a thread on this threat (feel free to add): me Ji Ian Randy I prefer Bethesda boy to start all of our substantive threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 So now we have 8 days of watching model runs; the final four days sleepless. as long as there is some semblance of a storm associated with this front...then yes....We need the Euro to cave and punt the threat entirely for several consecutive runs....if we can get some weak OTS solution for a few runs, we can go back to our normal lives...1-2 runs won't do it...a storm that misses us just south and east won't do it....something that cuts too early and gives us mix/rain won't do it...and if the GFS sniffs it out, it won't do it...we are pretty much screwed...7 days of torture....and then Jonestown-esque ritual suicide to follow...we are insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It was mostly mild here too. At least I should miss most of the rain or maybe all of it. How much snow did you guys get? Figured it had to be at least a foot based on the posts of some in that region crowing about the "white Christmas." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherJunkie Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Boat. Plane. Ship. Bus. I am going to mention the Tracker Bus as much as I can in every storm and every possibility now. So we take the boat to get to the plane to get on a ship to get to another bus?? With these models, we're gonna need a bigger boat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 as long as there is some semblance of a storm associated with this front...then yes....We need the Euro to cave and punt the threat entirely for several consecutive runs....if we can get some weak OTS solution for a few runs, we can go back to our normal lives...1-2 runs won't do it...a storm that misses us just south and east won't do it....something that cuts too early and gives us mix/rain won't do it...and if the GFS sniffs it out, it won't do it...we are pretty much screwed...7 days of torture....and then Jonestown-esque ritual suicide to follow...we are insane the euro ensemble mean looks like the most likely solution or something in between it and the operational. It doesn't have the big closed low but does ahve a hefty trough and there probably are a few members that close off a center but it's a more progressive look with one low way up north and the wave with the southern end of the trough way offshore. Still, it argues for the coldest air so far and doesn't completely say the euro is trash but suggests the operations euro is one of the more extreme possible solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Storm aside, I like the fact that the Euro has been advertising an arctic outbreak and -AO (still +NAO) around the 3-5th for several days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 as long as there is some semblance of a storm associated with this front...then yes....We need the Euro to cave and punt the threat entirely for several consecutive runs....if we can get some weak OTS solution for a few runs, we can go back to our normal lives...1-2 runs won't do it...a storm that misses us just south and east won't do it....something that cuts too early and gives us mix/rain won't do it...and if the GFS sniffs it out, it won't do it...we are pretty much screwed...7 days of torture....and then Jonestown-esque ritual suicide to follow...we are insane Well, here's another insidious scenario...the Euro loses it, GFS picks it up and they keep trading off on the threat. They both drop it..the GGEM/UK pick it up..drops it and then the NAM at 84 hours LOOKS like it's on to something extrapolated 120 hours out. THere are many, many torturous scenarios from this point on that will disrupt our lives, cause us to withdraw from family and friends and becoming irrationally combative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well, here's another insidious scenario...the Euro loses it, GFS picks it up and they keep trading off on the threat. They both drop it..the GGEM/UK pick it up..drops it and then the NAM at 84 hours LOOKS like it's on to something extrapolated 120 hours out. THere are many, many torturous scenarios from this point on that will disrupt our lives, cause us to withdraw from family and friends and becoming irrationally combative. Lastly, as it shows a progressive system the JMA shows it and Ji sinks with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well, here's another insidious scenario...the Euro loses it, GFS picks it up and they keep trading off on the threat. They both drop it..the GGEM/UK pick it up..drops it and then the NAM at 84 hours LOOKS like it's on to something extrapolated 120 hours out. THere are many, many torturous scenarios from this point on that will disrupt our lives, cause us to withdraw from family and friends and becoming irrationally combative. First radio show in the works??? I want updates every hour on the hour. Get that Drag fella involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well, here's another insidious scenario...the Euro loses it, GFS picks it up and they keep trading off on the threat. They both drop it..the GGEM/UK pick it up..drops it and then the NAM at 84 hours LOOKS like it's on to something extrapolated 120 hours out. THere are many, many torturous scenarios from this point on that will disrupt our lives, cause us to withdraw from family and friends and becoming irrationally combative. you must have missed the ggem, but yea i agree. i think the 18z gfs starts to sniff it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well, here's another insidious scenario...the Euro loses it, GFS picks it up and they keep trading off on the threat. They both drop it..the GGEM/UK pick it up..drops it and then the NAM at 84 hours LOOKS like it's on to something extrapolated 120 hours out. THere are many, many torturous scenarios from this point on that will disrupt our lives, cause us to withdraw from family and friends and becoming irrationally combative. the only scenario assured is that we will all "lose it" at some point or another over the next 7 days woe is me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the euro ensemble mean looks like the most likely solution or something in between it and the operational. It doesn't have the big closed low but does ahve a hefty trough and there probably are a few members that close off a center but it's a more progressive look with one low way up north and the wave with the southern end of the trough way offshore. Still, it argues for the coldest air so far and doesn't completely say the euro is trash but suggests the operations euro is one of the more extreme possible solutions. even the OP trended east today....would even expect the next runs to push it further south and east....the problem is if it comes close...then we won't be able not to watch it...we need it to lose the storm....something more progressive but that fringes us with 1-3" or even comes within 50 miles won't do it.....i really hate the timing we need with such a fast pattern....it seems like even a great solution could bust on day 1....I'd like a juicy southern stream moving at a snail's pace with a blob that can't miss the side of a barn....given that isn't going to happen, a semblance of a block would be nice.... looking at the KU book quick and dirty, DEC 63 and the 2/16/96 storm don't seem that dissimilar though there are major differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm usually not that interested with off hour GFS for the lr but I'm kinda curious about the 18z run coming up shortly. It would be nice to see the gfs start to look more euro'ish with the +pna next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Lastly, as it shows a progressive system the JMA shows it and Ji sinks with that model. JMA does have a monster trough on day 6 http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_144HR.gif and an interesting surface map too http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 JMA does have a monster trough on day 6 http://grib2.com/jma...PVORT_144HR.gif and an interesting surface map too http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_144HR.gif Duel lows, 1500 miles apart, that's a classic KU look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 even the OP trended east today....would even expect the next runs to push it further south and east....the problem is if it comes close...then we won't be able not to watch it...we need it to lose the storm....something more progressive but that fringes us with 1-3" or even comes within 50 miles won't do it.....i really hate the timing we need with such a fast pattern....it seems like even a great solution could bust on day 1....I'd like a juicy southern stream moving at a snail's pace with a blob that can't miss the side of a barn....given that isn't going to happen, a semblance of a block would be nice.... looking at the KU book quick and dirty, DEC 63 and the 2/16/96 storm don't seem that dissimilar though there are major differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf180.html Looks like 0 of the GFS Ensemble members show anything at all. Not that it matters too much, but anyone know what the UKMet says? While we're at it, what about the JMA? Brazilian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 hr 192 euro ens a real decent match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 hr 192 euro ens a real decent match the pattern isn't a bad match...that storm evolved a bit differently though...we don't have a southern stream to work with this time....that was an epic storm in dixie...i'm not sure it ever closed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 hr 192 euro ens a real decent match wow...too bad its 8 days out and it shows low pressure in Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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