stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The GFS won't do what we want. It never does what we want. I'm not sure we want it to at this stage. Do we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yes but can't this very easily become a cutter if the ridge sets up to far west. I don't think that is likely. Possible but not likely. IMO- our biggest enemy would be for the trough to end up not being sharp enough and having anything of interest shear out and quietly move ots to our south. What the euro shows is a standard +pna. It really stinks that the atl refuses to cooperate. Everything has to be placed and timed just right without a -nao. I hate that part of the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 How much snow did you guys get? Figured it had to be at least a foot based on the posts of some in that region crowing about the "white Christmas." I saw like 22 snowflakes. What a terrible flight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 that was a great movie! for its time, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 he's all in....100% of his stack in the middle I guess his stupidity has gone viral based on the email chain ii see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I don't think that is likely. Possible but not likely. IMO- our biggest enemy would be for the trough to end up not being sharp enough and having anything of interest shear out and quietly move ots to our south. What the euro shows is a standard +pna. It really stinks that the atl refuses to cooperate. Everything has to be placed and timed just right without a -nao. I hate that part of the setup. I will take that over a cutter any day, and even if this does not pan out it is just exciting to have something legitimate to track after this disaster of a December. Deep down though all of us are praying it threads the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Maybe some flurries or snow showers on sunday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS so far looks nothing like the euro upstream... At least it looks cold early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 not even close...much flatter Too bad the euro loves fantasy so much lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 not even close...much flatter Give it time, i am betting that by tomorrow night it will look closer to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Too bad the euro loves fantasy so much lately The gloves will come in handy next week either for snow or cold, so i hope you brought them back with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 How much snow did you guys get? Figured it had to be at least a foot based on the posts of some in that region crowing about the "white Christmas." Dusting only here...looked pretty for 5 minutes Hope something good hits you folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 what have I missed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 yes...cause the euro might suck by then Lol had not thought of it that way, but your probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Man, the euro and gfs are really at odds with each other on the ridge out west. They are really far apart. If I had to guess I would say the euro is really overdoing it because the gfs looks pretty much like what we've been seing for weeks. Progressive troughs and boring winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 it's probably way overamplified maybe, i'd be concerned if the Euro ensembles were really flat, but just by looking at the ensemble means...there are far more amplified members than flat members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Somebody right now is furiously refreshing the 18z GFS looking and extrapolating for any sign of the Euro storm. The 144 hr GFS says no way. It's way too far east with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The gloves will come in handy next week either for snow or cold, so i hope you brought them back with you. I'd like to believe but I don't have it in me to weenie out given the current circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Going way out on a limb here, but... it is possible the 18Z GFS at 8 days out is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 soooo its gonna snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 maybe, i'd be concerned if the Euro ensembles were really flat, but just by looking at the ensemble means...there are far more amplified members than flat members. Weve been there before with the euro. I mean I'm not adamantly writing it off like past storms but let's not read things that are not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It doesnt even have a storm to suppress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Man, the euro and gfs are really at odds with each other on the ridge out west. They are really far apart. If I had to guess I would say the euro is really overdoing it because the gfs looks pretty much like what we've been seing for weeks. Progressive troughs and boring winter weather. the biggest pause for concern I have is the GFS beat the Euro on the Christmas storm where Euro had something, GFS didn't, then GFS won lala land storms, almost guaranteed to be disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the GFS also closes off the trough over Maine idk, ever other mr model has the big trough except the GFS how often does the GFS score the coup against all the other mr models at Day 7? but, I guess it's happened before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Man, the euro and gfs are really at odds with each other on the ridge out west. They are really far apart. If I had to guess I would say the euro is really overdoing it because the gfs looks pretty much like what we've been seing for weeks. Progressive troughs and boring winter weather. Going back to last year, the Euro has consistently erred by overdeepening surface lows along the SE coast at this range. I remember seeing the Euro spitting out 940 MB lows over hatteras last year. The GFS seems to be more accurate at low pressure strength at this range while the Euro is quite a bit better at locating the storm tracks at this range. At least that's my impression from watching these weenie fantasies evolve over the past two seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 what have I missed? Nothing, most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Going way out on a limb here, but... it is possible the 18Z GFS at 8 days out is wrong. It's possible all the euro, gfs, euro ensembles, gfs ensembles members are all wrong. I always feel uncomfortable when the ridge has to amplify strongly and then you get a closed low that is 4 or 5 standard deviations from normal in terms of depth. The solution is possible but wow, it's forecasting a rare event. Weaken the ridge and you get a different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 idk, ever other mr model has the big trough except the GFS how often does the GFS score the coup against all the other mr models at Day 7? but, I guess it's happened before The ukmet doesn't so not all models look like the euro. The ggem does. I don't look at the nogaps cause it stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well it's only a week late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Heh, the gfs does have the euro solution. It's just @ hr 276-300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.