stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 DT John Holst: a dumb post. the OCT 28 -29 severe e northeaster snowstorm that dropped 1 foot and smashed records was picked up by Most models 7-8 days out... the massive xmas east coast storm later winter was seen 7-8 days out.... the BIG event are seen many days out You can always tell when RIC is getting bombed on the Euro. DT is invested. Not fully yet, but he's in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 List of people not allowed to start a thread on this threat (feel free to add): me Ji Ian Randy I prefer Bethesda boy to start all of our substantive threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It was mostly mild here too. At least I should miss most of the rain or maybe all of it. How much snow did you guys get? Figured it had to be at least a foot based on the posts of some in that region crowing about the "white Christmas." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherJunkie Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Boat. Plane. Ship. Bus. I am going to mention the Tracker Bus as much as I can in every storm and every possibility now. So we take the boat to get to the plane to get on a ship to get to another bus?? With these models, we're gonna need a bigger boat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 as long as there is some semblance of a storm associated with this front...then yes....We need the Euro to cave and punt the threat entirely for several consecutive runs....if we can get some weak OTS solution for a few runs, we can go back to our normal lives...1-2 runs won't do it...a storm that misses us just south and east won't do it....something that cuts too early and gives us mix/rain won't do it...and if the GFS sniffs it out, it won't do it...we are pretty much screwed...7 days of torture....and then Jonestown-esque ritual suicide to follow...we are insane the euro ensemble mean looks like the most likely solution or something in between it and the operational. It doesn't have the big closed low but does ahve a hefty trough and there probably are a few members that close off a center but it's a more progressive look with one low way up north and the wave with the southern end of the trough way offshore. Still, it argues for the coldest air so far and doesn't completely say the euro is trash but suggests the operations euro is one of the more extreme possible solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Storm aside, I like the fact that the Euro has been advertising an arctic outbreak and -AO (still +NAO) around the 3-5th for several days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 as long as there is some semblance of a storm associated with this front...then yes....We need the Euro to cave and punt the threat entirely for several consecutive runs....if we can get some weak OTS solution for a few runs, we can go back to our normal lives...1-2 runs won't do it...a storm that misses us just south and east won't do it....something that cuts too early and gives us mix/rain won't do it...and if the GFS sniffs it out, it won't do it...we are pretty much screwed...7 days of torture....and then Jonestown-esque ritual suicide to follow...we are insane Well, here's another insidious scenario...the Euro loses it, GFS picks it up and they keep trading off on the threat. They both drop it..the GGEM/UK pick it up..drops it and then the NAM at 84 hours LOOKS like it's on to something extrapolated 120 hours out. THere are many, many torturous scenarios from this point on that will disrupt our lives, cause us to withdraw from family and friends and becoming irrationally combative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well, here's another insidious scenario...the Euro loses it, GFS picks it up and they keep trading off on the threat. They both drop it..the GGEM/UK pick it up..drops it and then the NAM at 84 hours LOOKS like it's on to something extrapolated 120 hours out. THere are many, many torturous scenarios from this point on that will disrupt our lives, cause us to withdraw from family and friends and becoming irrationally combative. Lastly, as it shows a progressive system the JMA shows it and Ji sinks with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well, here's another insidious scenario...the Euro loses it, GFS picks it up and they keep trading off on the threat. They both drop it..the GGEM/UK pick it up..drops it and then the NAM at 84 hours LOOKS like it's on to something extrapolated 120 hours out. THere are many, many torturous scenarios from this point on that will disrupt our lives, cause us to withdraw from family and friends and becoming irrationally combative. First radio show in the works??? I want updates every hour on the hour. Get that Drag fella involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well, here's another insidious scenario...the Euro loses it, GFS picks it up and they keep trading off on the threat. They both drop it..the GGEM/UK pick it up..drops it and then the NAM at 84 hours LOOKS like it's on to something extrapolated 120 hours out. THere are many, many torturous scenarios from this point on that will disrupt our lives, cause us to withdraw from family and friends and becoming irrationally combative. you must have missed the ggem, but yea i agree. i think the 18z gfs starts to sniff it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well, here's another insidious scenario...the Euro loses it, GFS picks it up and they keep trading off on the threat. They both drop it..the GGEM/UK pick it up..drops it and then the NAM at 84 hours LOOKS like it's on to something extrapolated 120 hours out. THere are many, many torturous scenarios from this point on that will disrupt our lives, cause us to withdraw from family and friends and becoming irrationally combative. the only scenario assured is that we will all "lose it" at some point or another over the next 7 days woe is me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm usually not that interested with off hour GFS for the lr but I'm kinda curious about the 18z run coming up shortly. It would be nice to see the gfs start to look more euro'ish with the +pna next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Lastly, as it shows a progressive system the JMA shows it and Ji sinks with that model. JMA does have a monster trough on day 6 http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_144HR.gif and an interesting surface map too http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 JMA does have a monster trough on day 6 http://grib2.com/jma...PVORT_144HR.gif and an interesting surface map too http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_144HR.gif Duel lows, 1500 miles apart, that's a classic KU look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf180.html Looks like 0 of the GFS Ensemble members show anything at all. Not that it matters too much, but anyone know what the UKMet says? While we're at it, what about the JMA? Brazilian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 hr 192 euro ens a real decent match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 hr 192 euro ens a real decent match wow...too bad its 8 days out and it shows low pressure in Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 hr 192 euro ens a real decent match If we start to hedge that the troff is too sharp, I like our lower lattitude relative to DC for a minor + event (Maybe2-4, 3-6 range) Heck, i'd be thrilled for a 1-3 inch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 i think with the way this winter is going...i see no harm in trying to track anything that remotely shows snow on the models..even if it is 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 that isn't going to change...we can't expect the ATL to help us...even worse is the pos height anomaly off the maritimes...the pattern is quick....we need the trough to close off in a way that won't hurt us...good luck to us!! DT isnt even following his own eastern snowstorm rules. But this is all we have right now and its better than the severe blowtorch forecasted by Donald Sutherland for jan 1-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...2zsnowf180.html Looks like 0 of the GFS Ensemble members show anything at all. Not that it matters too much, but anyone know what the UKMet says? While we're at it, what about the JMA? Brazilian? NOGAPS? CRAS? DGEX? FMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Somebody right now is furiously refreshing the 18z GFS looking and extrapolating for any sign of the Euro storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Somebody right now is furiously refreshing the 18z GFS looking and extrapolating for any sign of the Euro storm. People in glass houses should not throw stones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 People in glass houses should not throw stones. I haven't even checked the GFS yet because I know it's nowhere near the fun time frame. I will shortly though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I haven't even checked the GFS yet because I know it's nowhere near the fun time frame. I will shortly though! Until Wes becomes more optimistic i cannot get on the boat with you and Kate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the problem is we are stuck....we have a real air mass this time....the only way to get unstuck is for every model to lose the storm Yes but can't this very easily become a cutter if the ridge sets up to far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 he's all in....100% of his stack in the middle He is always all in when it shows Richmond getting a foot of snow. He is as much IMBY as me and the rest of the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I cannot see what you posted all i see is an X and it says posted image next to it. I have been having this problem for a long time now with a lot of images on the forum and i cannot figure out why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The GFS won't do what we want. It never does what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 NOGAPS? CRAS? DGEX? FMA? It was hilarious that just before I posted that, someone actually did post the JMA. Let me be clear I was kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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