usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 144? That's giving the models a lot of credit. It is even when the various models are in agreement with a negative nao in place but then Randy is an optimist, he still watches the redskins thinking they might somehow win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Much different look around the pole through the last 3 panels. I'm starting to wonder if we are seeing the beginning of a real pattern change. http://raleighwx.ame...GHTNH_loop.html It seems that the ridge finally pushes the AK low of death W some and gives the east trough a chance to build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It is even when the various models are in agreement with a negative nao in place but then Randy is an optimist, he still watches the redskins thinking they might somehow win. He should become a Ravens fan, then it becomes like the 09/10 winter model runs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It is even when the various models are in agreement with a negative nao in place but then Randy is an optimist, he still watches the redskins thinking they might somehow win. He isn't the only one. AP goes out with a busted knee and we still find a way to lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Much different look around the pole through the last 3 panels. I'm starting to wonder if we are seeing the beginning of a real pattern change. http://raleighwx.ame...GHTNH_loop.html That's interesting, looks like something happens with the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 its been stuck in the 7-8 days now for 2 days. We need to get in the 3-4 day range. and GFS of course as always says what storm? GFS and EURO never agree on anything past 7 days no Wunderground has last night's 0Z run still available and today's 12Z today's is a little slower, but only by a few hours comparing the 174 and 180 maps the 0Z run at 174hrs had NO SNOW into DCA/BWI and 3"-4" at 180hrs 12Z run at 174 hrs has 2" into DCA/BWI and 4"-5" for 6 hrs ending 180hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 All I'm saying is that if it crashes and burns, let's get it over with tonight at 0z. That would be desirable... The alternative would be the familiar "Euro-loses-the-storm-GFS-finds-the-storm-GFS-holds-the-storm-NAM-finds-the-storm-GFS-loses-the-storm-Euro-refinds-the-storm-NAM-holds-the-storm-RUC-says-no-snow-for-you" scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 although it is hard to imagine this coming to fruition as depicted today, the fact is we have seen a lot of closed lows this fall/winter (as many in addition to myself) have commented and we all said "if only we had cold air" the Euro delivers on the cold air via a mega PNA ridge assuming the PNA ridge delivers as the Euro shows, why should we be that surprised with the big, azz snow storm it's showing? it ain't like it's been dry as a bone around here this winter all 3 local airports are 1"+ AN with DEC precip hence, I'm optimistic of something decent next week I agree. The +PNA is pretty much a lock at this point. All guidance showing it but the euro is the strongest. Either way, I highly doubt that ridge/trough doesn't have energy and moisture to work with. It's a pretty sharp trough too (on the euro at least) so it's not really that unusual or difficult to get a closed low spinning near the base somewhere. IMO- worst case is the trough not being as deep and/or sharp as the euro shows and any energy/moisture ends up getting sheared out off the coast to the south of us. Doesn't look like we'll end up with rain with this setup and that's a good thing. Odds of the euro verifying are not something you'd want to wager on but there is no reason to think we won't end up with any snow next week. Best shot of accum snow this year IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 He isn't the only one. AP goes out with a busted knee and we still find a way to lose I know, I'm also an optimist except about DC snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It is even when the various models are in agreement with a negative nao in place but then Randy is an optimist, he still watches the redskins thinking they might somehow win. Wes is trolling me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 http://www.facebook.com/capitalweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wes is trolling me. I'm hanging low because I'm sure I'm next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Capital Weather Gang gave tomorrow a 1 out of 10 because there is now a snowstorm to track. Zwyts, our goal was having something to track between christmas and new years. We had both agreed i think that if there was nothing trackable in this time frame, our winter would be in trouble. The strange part is most of the models had jan 1-7 being a freaking blowtorch just a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 We all know the Ravens and Redskins are just the little red-headed step kids to the record setting 6 time Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wes is trolling me. I only troll people I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I only troll people I like. You are a very nice and friendly troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I only troll people I like. What happened to the jan 1-7 blowtorch that Don Sutherland called for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I only troll people I like. I know A lot of people may not get our dynamic here. I'll probably end up saying something semi-foul to you and somebody will send me a stern PM telling me how dare I talk to a met like that. Anyway...CWG is already on this...not sure why, but I guess in a dry spell, anything warrants a mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 What happened to the jan 1-7 blowtorch that Don Sutherland called for? SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 What happened to the jan 1-7 blowtorch that Don Sutherland called for? We'll see, it's still sort of on the GFS. My guess is that the true answer will be somewhere in between. The euro is warm prior to its storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I know A lot of people may not get our dynamic here. I'll probably end up saying something semi-foul to you and somebody will send me a stern PM telling me how dare I talk to a met like that. Anyway...CWG is already on this...not sure why, but I guess in a dry spell, anything warrants a mention. I think it worth mentioning with a big caution like Jason did. Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GGEM sorta thinks about saying...yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 i just checked my weenie play lists card, and i am playing the "only the big dogs get picked up so far out on models" card Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm not very superstitous at all but I respectfully request that no separate thread is created for this storm until Sunday at the earliest (if the threat is still there of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just got back from Holiday travels...steady rain, seemed heavy at times, all the way down I-77 from Akron, rain/snow mix until south of Akron. Nasty driviing conditions. Currently have 1.43 inches recorded since it started this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 FWIW euro is frigid after the storm...single digit lows for most except in the city......Friday looks like maybe a high in mid 20s...of course this is taking into account snowcover...but still...euro is advertising a formidable cold surge for at least 2-3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 my guess and it isn't worth much...but if there is a storm next week I think we will have to deal with initial temp issue especially closer to the surface...and a track that might mix or sleet DC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wes is trolling me. Its never too early to jump aboard the Tracker Ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 ORH Though I admit I though it was a Midlo post for a sec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Let's hope ORH keeps posting in this thread all week. Usually a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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