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December 2011 General Disc/Obs


Ellinwood

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It is even when the various models are in agreement with a negative nao in place but then Randy is an optimist, he still watches the redskins thinking they might somehow win.

He isn't the only one. AP goes out with a busted knee and we still find a way to lose

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its been stuck in the 7-8 days now for 2 days. We need to get in the 3-4 day range. and GFS of course as always says what storm? GFS and EURO never agree on anything past 7 days

no

Wunderground has last night's 0Z run still available and today's 12Z

today's is a little slower, but only by a few hours comparing the 174 and 180 maps

the 0Z run at 174hrs had NO SNOW into DCA/BWI and 3"-4" at 180hrs

12Z run at 174 hrs has 2" into DCA/BWI and 4"-5" for 6 hrs ending 180hrs

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All I'm saying is that if it crashes and burns, let's get it over with tonight at 0z.

That would be desirable... The alternative would be the familiar "Euro-loses-the-storm-GFS-finds-the-storm-GFS-holds-the-storm-NAM-finds-the-storm-GFS-loses-the-storm-Euro-refinds-the-storm-NAM-holds-the-storm-RUC-says-no-snow-for-you" scenario.

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although it is hard to imagine this coming to fruition as depicted today, the fact is we have seen a lot of closed lows this fall/winter (as many in addition to myself) have commented and we all said "if only we had cold air"

the Euro delivers on the cold air via a mega PNA ridge

assuming the PNA ridge delivers as the Euro shows, why should we be that surprised with the big, azz snow storm it's showing?

it ain't like it's been dry as a bone around here this winter

all 3 local airports are 1"+ AN with DEC precip

hence, I'm optimistic of something decent next week

I agree. The +PNA is pretty much a lock at this point. All guidance showing it but the euro is the strongest. Either way, I highly doubt that ridge/trough doesn't have energy and moisture to work with. It's a pretty sharp trough too (on the euro at least) so it's not really that unusual or difficult to get a closed low spinning near the base somewhere.

IMO- worst case is the trough not being as deep and/or sharp as the euro shows and any energy/moisture ends up getting sheared out off the coast to the south of us. Doesn't look like we'll end up with rain with this setup and that's a good thing. Odds of the euro verifying are not something you'd want to wager on but there is no reason to think we won't end up with any snow next week. Best shot of accum snow this year IMO.

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Capital Weather Gang gave tomorrow a 1 out of 10 because there is now a snowstorm to track.

Zwyts, our goal was having something to track between christmas and new years. We had both agreed i think that if there was nothing trackable in this time frame, our winter would be in trouble. The strange part is most of the models had jan 1-7 being a freaking blowtorch just a few days ago.

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I only troll people I like.

I know :wub:

A lot of people may not get our dynamic here. I'll probably end up saying something semi-foul to you and somebody will send me a stern PM telling me how dare I talk to a met like that. :arrowhead:

Anyway...CWG is already on this...not sure why, but I guess in a dry spell, anything warrants a mention.

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I know :wub:

A lot of people may not get our dynamic here. I'll probably end up saying something semi-foul to you and somebody will send me a stern PM telling me how dare I talk to a met like that. :arrowhead:

Anyway...CWG is already on this...not sure why, but I guess in a dry spell, anything warrants a mention.

I think it worth mentioning with a big caution like Jason did. Wes

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