Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 A big deep noreaster could also shake things up at the high latitudes. Maybe this is how you break a crappy pattern too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Here are the gfs 500h patterns for 180 hours. Look how flat they look and then look at the euro and 12Z ggem. The differences evoke a big wow. The euro ensembles briefly flatten it out before rebuilding it again. I think the +PNA shown has a good chance of happening, but where low pressure forms is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 enjoy Need a legend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Need a legend... yea i noticed it got cut off after i posted it, fixed now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Need a legend... Joe Bastardi! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'll post the 192hr panel when I get home with the 996mb low 75 miles east of ocean city. We need something to dream about. Hopefully the euro pulls the plug early. This could be extremely painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It's also 18 hours slower compared to the 00z run... and the low track is quite odd (for lack of a better term). As matt mentioned, the evolution is odd. I also can't remember any storm with that look. I thought maybe January of 1988 as that occurred with a postive nao but that's the closest I can remember and it never close off a monster minus a lot sd 500 low over the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Weird the way the track kicks west. Due to a lack of blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 looks cold right through hr 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Weird the way the track kicks west. Due to a lack of blocking? Due to the upper low closing off so far south I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 You should probably read this thread where the pattern change is discussed at length by meteorologists. I read it after i had posted, i was in a 4 hour meeting and i did not go back to read 4 pages with everyone getting all excited about the Euro run. So i was just saying what JB had just tweeted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 i thought he cancelled january According to his last 3 tweets not at all, he said we will get a storm on the east coast next week just not the raging blizzard the EURO is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 what a way to cover his big ol' butt right there classic JB I added the so even if we do not get hit with the storm next week the misery could be ending. He only stated the first part of my comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just got back to this thread. Well damn. I'll have to add to the chorus of "too bad it's 7.5 days away". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just got back to this thread. Well damn. I'll have to add to the chorus of "too bad it's 7.5 days away". You know if this keeps showing up for the next 2 or 3 runs, we will not be sleeping for the next week just to track a storm that will either be rain or give us an inch at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just got back to this thread. Well damn. I'll have to add to the chorus of "too bad it's 7.5 days away". Which is exactly how far it was away 12 hours ago. I guess the main thing is the cold it's showing. Have to start somewhere. Today would have been at the least a "wintry" scenario had there been any cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Much different look around the pole through the last 3 panels. I'm starting to wonder if we are seeing the beginning of a real pattern change. http://raleighwx.ame...GHTNH_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'll post the 192hr panel when I get home with the 996mb low 75 miles east of ocean city. We need something to dream about. Hopefully the euro pulls the plug early. This could be extremely painful That's all we can hope for. Since this will crash and burn, no point in getting people emotionally invested. I hope it's gone by 0z and we can move on and continue to b**ch about 40's and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 HPC was honking early this morning in the prelim extended discussion- ..SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS STILL SKETCHY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 although it is hard to imagine this coming to fruition as depicted today, the fact is we have seen a lot of closed lows this fall/winter (as many in addition to myself) have commented and we all said "if only we had cold air" the Euro delivers on the cold air via a mega PNA ridge assuming the PNA ridge delivers as the Euro shows, why should we be that surprised with the big, azz snow storm it's showing? it ain't like it's been dry as a bone around here this winter all 3 local airports are 1"+ AN with DEC precip hence, I'm optimistic of something decent next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 You know if this keeps showing up for the next 2 or 3 runs, we will not be sleeping for the next week just to track a storm that will either be rain or give us an inch at best. At a minimum, I need this to show up 144 hours. That's my line in the sand. And even then, it's shaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 At a minimum, I need this to show up 144 hours. That's my line in the sand. And even then, it's shaky. I always wait until it gets into the 84h CRAS wheelhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 At a minimum, I need this to show up 144 hours. That's my line in the sand. And even then, it's shaky. 144? That's giving the models a lot of credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 although it is hard to imagine this coming to fruition as depicted today, the fact is we have seen a lot of closed lows this fall/winter (as many in addition to myself) have commented and we all said "if only we had cold air" the Euro delivers on the cold air via a mega PNA ridge assuming the PNA ridge delivers as the Euro shows, why should we be that surprised with the big, azz snow storm it's showing? it ain't like it's been dry as a bone around here this winter all 3 local airports are 1"+ AN with DEC precip hence, I'm optimistic of something decent next week It's good that you're optimistic and it's balanced out with plenty of realism here. Look, let's not kid ourselves, 99% of us are excited re: the Euro and hope it verifies...no point in trying to deny it with "calm down, it's day 7.5" talk. I mean, that is a matter of fact...it's 7.5 days away...but it won't stop one of us from checking the GFS and Euro with the expectation that the storm will be there. All I'm saying is that if it crashes and burns, let's get it over with tonight at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 At a minimum, I need this to show up 144 hours. That's my line in the sand. And even then, it's shaky. Slide that decimal to 14.4 hours for me for my line in the sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 At a minimum, I need this to show up 144 hours. That's my line in the sand. And even then, it's shaky. Well i will be up at 1:30 tomorrow night, i hope to see you here with the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just got back to this thread. Well damn. I'll have to add to the chorus of "too bad it's 7.5 days away". its been stuck in the 7-8 days now for 2 days. We need to get in the 3-4 day range. and GFS of course as always says what storm? GFS and EURO never agree on anything past 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 144? That's giving the models a lot of credit. Not really..that's my "realistic" frame for major features. There's usually something to it if its there on every model at 144....not saying its a solution we'll like in the end..but the signal for a storm or significant feature becomes a bit more realistic than 192 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Slide that decimal to 14.4 hours for me for my line in the sand. That's fine, and I'm sure many others agree. I was just stating my completely arbitrary and subjective thought on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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