Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Really just look at these rain solutions that are modeled to drop an inch or more several days out but when it comes to game time we MIGHT get a quarter to half an inch at best. That thing on the euro if it ever happens will end up cutting so far West we may only see light drizzle I don't think anyone is taking the euro seriously.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 other than the fact that 1/25/00 had a -EPO, a split flow, a block and occurred in an already established stable pattern, they are almost the same!!! the storm, the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I don't think anyone is taking the euro seriously.... Yeah I know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah I know... see ya in 2 hours!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Mark my words... ...this threat will be gone by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 see ya in 2 hours!!! It is encouraging to see most models start some sort of change. It may not be what we want and yes, the Euro is showing false idols...but I think it's on to some sort of window of opportunity as the change looks fleeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 see ya in 2 hours!!! looks warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It is encouraging to see most models start some sort of change. It may not be what we want and yes, the Euro is showing false idols...but I think it's on to some sort of window of opportunity as the change looks fleeting. more importantly, HM is/has been seeing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It is encouraging to see most models start some sort of change. It may not be what we want and yes, the Euro is showing false idols...but I think it's on to some sort of window of opportunity as the change looks fleeting. I just want a 1-3" event in the next 10-14 days....the pattern change can wait...if it happens at all, probably not for 2-3 weeks.....MJO should be in phase 7 by January 5-10.....maybe that will then induce a change to a better pattern..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Day 4 clipper seems warm but something to watch for flurries I guess. Better than nothing for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I just want a 1-3" event in the next 10-14 days....the pattern change can wait...if it happens at all, probably not for 2-3 weeks.....MJO should be in phase 7 by January 5-10.....maybe that will then induce a change to a better pattern..... I'm tired of the landscape being green....not sure bare and brown is better but other than trees not having leaves it hasn't really felt or looked much like winter at all....a nice bed of white even if it is only 1" would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I just want a 1-3" event in the next 10-14 days....the pattern change can wait...if it happens at all, probably not for 2-3 weeks.....MJO should be in phase 7 by January 5-10.....maybe that will then induce a change to a better pattern..... This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It is encouraging to see most models start some sort of change. It may not be what we want and yes, the Euro is showing false idols...but I think it's on to some sort of window of opportunity as the change looks fleeting. The GFS through 240 hours says what pattern change. It gives us another transitory cool shot but is way different than the Euro. I haven't looked beyond that time as the models are having a real tough time with the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 more importantly, HM is/has been seeing it I think we need to set the bar lower....we still get snow in +NAO years.....clippers and other more modest events are what I am hoping for.....I think we may be waiting a long time for something that will never arrive, if we are expecting a killer pattern.....although it is day 8 and the solution is crazy, the PNA spike the euro is advertising is exactly the type of thing we need to score a modest/moderate event as our snow climo is improving.....our snow history is littered with <4" events that happened in so-so patterns....as much as we/I want it I think the focus on getting a block might be a bit of a red herring....we will probably just need to score/time something during a transient upswing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I don't think anyone is taking the winter seriously.... FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think we need to set the bar lower....we still get snow in +NAO years.....clippers and other more modest events are what I am hoping for.....I think we may be waiting a long time for something that will never arrive, if we are expecting a killer pattern.....although it is day 8 and the solution is crazy, the PNA spike the euro is advertising is exactly the type of thing we need to score a modest/moderate event as our snow climo is improving.....our snow history is littered with <4" events that happened in so-so patterns....as much as we/I want it I think the focus on getting a block might be a bit of a red herring....we will probably just need to score/time something during a transient upswing First thing we need is some colder than normal temps. Without them, it is really hard to get snow so a nice pna or a change to a negative epo would be a big plus. The models seem to have a quick psotive pna especially the stormy euro. By 240 the gfs squashes it like a bug and has a pretty nasty looking pattern (at least to me). It has a really zonal look. Of course it probably is no more right than the euro was/is. It will be interesting to see whether the model and statistical MJO forecasts end up being correct about the mjo shifting past phase 5 into phases 8-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 First thing we need is some colder than normal temps. Without them, it is really hard to get snow so a nice pna or a change to a negative epo would be a big plus. The models seem to have a quick psotive pna especially the stormy euro. By 240 the gfs squashes it like a bug and has a pretty nasty looking pattern (at least to me). It has a really zonal look. Of course it probably is no more right than the euro was/is. It will be interesting to see whether the model and statistical MJO forecasts end up being correct about the mjo shifting past phase 5 into phases 8-2. we have been in phase 5 forever.....though it finally looks like it could move to 6 by new years...I don't know much about the MJO, but I am assuming the fact that it basically died and has been rotting in Phase 4/5 for the entire month has been a bad thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 we have been in phase 5 forever.....though it finally looks like it could move to 6 by new years...I don't know much about the MJO, but I am assuming the fact that it basically died and has been rotting in Phase 4/5 for the entire month has been a bad thing I think that's a good assumption. The mjo does offer possibilities for changes and for the trough to shift to the east coast which would be a good thing. Maybe it can even modulate the nao some. However, I'm not ready to jump on a pattern change yet but in reality don't really know. I'm riding the stats on the AO as a forecast tool until the progs clearly show it going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think we need to set the bar lower....we still get snow in +NAO years.....clippers and other more modest events are what I am hoping for.....I think we may be waiting a long time for something that will never arrive, if we are expecting a killer pattern.....although it is day 8 and the solution is crazy, the PNA spike the euro is advertising is exactly the type of thing we need to score a modest/moderate event as our snow climo is improving.....our snow history is littered with <4" events that happened in so-so patterns....as much as we/I want it I think the focus on getting a block might be a bit of a red herring....we will probably just need to score/time something during a transient upswing Just give me a 1 to 3 inch snowfall to track. I don't need a SECS, HECS or whatever. We need something at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just give me a 1 to 3 inch snowfall to track. I don't need a SECS, HECS or whatever. We need something at this point. let's keep tracking the cold shot next week...that might be our best hope for our 1st snow...either with a storm developing along the front or some weak wave right after...or some mix event into the decaying air mass 2-4 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm afraid the cold shot may be a spray of Glade, amid a cesspool of a pattern. The EC ensembles try to get the vortex back into AK again, but the Caspian ridge does try to nudge the PV south and keep some troughing over the east, but I see no signs of a true pattern change just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm afraid the cold shot may be a spray of Glade, amid a cesspool of a pattern. The EC ensembles try to get the vortex back into AK again, but the Caspian ridge does try to nudge the PV south and keep some troughing over the east, but I see no signs of a true pattern change just yet. That's what I was afraid of. The gfs sure doesn't look pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The CMC joins the EURO camp for next week...of course it's still a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 That's what I was afraid of. The gfs sure doesn't look pretty. The way I look at it, is that if I see the vortex in AK gone, or a -NAO ridge, then we have a pattern change. To me, it still looks like the key players in this pattern are still there....even if they are temporarily relaxed. I can't get too excited until they are gone, but the vortex looks a little dishelved which is good I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 meanwhile...it's a pretty raw day out today with light rain and 36 degrees at the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The CMC joins the EURO camp for next week...of course it's still a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The way I look at it, is that if I see the vortex in AK gone, or a -NAO ridge, then we have a pattern change. To me, it still looks like the key players in this pattern are still there....even if they are temporarily relaxed. I can't get too excited until they are gone, but the vortex looks a little dishelved which is good I guess. Here are the gfs 500h patterns for 180 hours. Look how flat they look and then look at the euro and 12Z ggem. The differences evoke a big wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wes, how many different ways are you going to say you don't buy us getting snow anytime soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 There ya go my man. We have to counter the heavy, heavy negative brigade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 There ya go my man. We have to counter the heavy, heavy negative brigade. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd A little more help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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