December 2011 General Disc/Obs

[MN Transplant]

The GFS doesn't even want us to pretend.

[Deck Pic]

1322756766[/url]' post='1156760']

I can't imagine there's a much better match to November 2011 than what is posted below. I don't know how the comparisons in other aspects might match up. The map from December of that year isn't a good looking map for us either. Things did improve in Jan and Feb, and IIRC, that Jan was the massive cold blast.

November 2011 first, November 1984 second.

December 1984 was an unmitigated disaster. I think our warmest on record. I Don't think we will be that warm. The PV should be further south and east than that month. 1984 there was no cold if anywhere near us after we got a brief cold shot near the beginning of the month. 12/10-12/30 was a total torch

[WinterWxLuvr]

December 1984 was an unmitigated disaster. I think our warmest on record. I Don't think we will be that warm. The PV should be further south and east than that month. 1984 there was no cold if anywhere near us after we got a brief cold shot near the beginning of the month. 12/10-12/30 was a total torch

I didn't post the graphic for that month, but I did look at it. It looked awful. Somehow, I won't be surprised if this Dec. ends up like that. But, then again, I won't be surprised if it ends up cold.

I just thought it was pretty amazing that the two Novembers ended up looking so similar.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I can't imagine there's a much better match to November 2011 than what is posted below. I don't know how the comparisons in other aspects might match up. The map from December of that year isn't a good looking map for us either. Things did improve in Jan and Feb, and IIRC, that Jan was the massive cold blast.

November 2011 first, November 1984 second.

I remember that January cold spell - it was the last time I remember having subzero highs. (I was in 9th grade) the front came through on a friday afternoon, preceeded by a bit of light snow that morning/early afternoon that got us out of school a bit early. The next day (saturday) was ridiculously windy and cold. I don't remember the actual temps, but do vividly recall the forecast on the radio for highs from -5F to 0. That night's lows were forecast to be -10 to -15F. It hasn't come close to being that cold here since. That was the weekend of the Inauguration - the coldest in history. Unfortunately, I don't recall much in the way of snow that year.

Edit:

I went back and checked the records for that Dec & Christmas (1984) period and it is ugly:

1984Temp. (°F)Dew Point (°F)Humidity (%)Sea Level Press. (in)Visibility (mi)Wind (mph)Precip. (in)EventsDechigh avg low highavglowhighavglowhighavglowhighavglowhighavghighsum 152 40 29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.01 250 39 28 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 350 40 29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.03 454 42 29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 540 34 29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 636 33 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.43 735 26 18 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 826 22 18 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 945 31 17 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1047 36 24 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1144 37 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.03 1248 39 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1346 38 31 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.02 1469 57 45 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1548 45 42 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1662 51 40 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1753 48 43 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1870 60 51 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1963 52 40 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.06 2059 48 37 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.07 2151 44 37 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 2256 46 35 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.29 2360 46 31 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.02 2447 38 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 2553 43 33 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.06 2633 26 20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 2744 32 20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.02 2848 42 37 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 2966 54 41 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 3075 58 41 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.02 3152 46 40 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.03

Dec avg high was 51 and the avg. mean temp was 42. 75F on Dec 30!?!. How miserable. We got a cold front late on Christmas night which gave us 1 chilly day after, but the torch was quickly re-lit. Colder pattern did arrive, but not until Jan 4. Jan 1985 had avg high of 34 and avg. mean temp of 27, so it was much colder than normal, and much, much colder than Dec.

Wow, the formatting of the data got lost, and I can't seem to fix it. For those not faint-of-heart the date is underlined and blue, and the 3 numbers that follow the date are the high, mean, and low temps in that order. Sorry.

[Deck Pic]

1322767649[/url]' post='1157346']

I remember that January cold spell - it was the last time I remember having subzero highs. (I was in 9th grade) the front came through on a friday afternoon, preceeded by a bit of light snow that morning/early afternoon that got us out of school a bit early. The next day (saturday) was ridiculously windy and cold. I don't remember the actual temps, but do vividly recall the forecast on the radio for highs from -5F to 0. That night's lows were forecast to be -10 to -15F. It hasn't come close to being that cold here since. That was the weekend of the Inauguration - the coldest in history. Unfortunately, I don't recall much in the way of snow that year.

Edit:

I went back and checked the records for that Dec & Christmas (1984) period and it is ugly:

1984Temp. (°F)Dew Point (°F)Humidity (%)Sea Level Press. (in)Visibility (mi)Wind (mph)Precip. (in)EventsDechigh avg low highavglowhighavglowhighavglowhighavglowhighavghighsum 152 40 29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.01 250 39 28 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 350 40 29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.03 454 42 29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 540 34 29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 636 33 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.43 735 26 18 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 826 22 18 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 945 31 17 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1047 36 24 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1144 37 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.03 1248 39 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1346 38 31 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.02 1469 57 45 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1548 45 42 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1662 51 40 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1753 48 43 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1870 60 51 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1963 52 40 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.06 2059 48 37 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.07 2151 44 37 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 2256 46 35 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.29 2360 46 31 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.02 2447 38 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 2553 43 33 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.06 2633 26 20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 2744 32 20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.02 2848 42 37 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 2966 54 41 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 3075 58 41 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.02 3152 46 40 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.03

Dec avg high was 51 and the avg. mean temp was 42. 75F on Dec 30!?!. How miserable. We got a cold front late on Christmas night which gave us 1 chilly day after, but the torch was quickly re-lit. Colder pattern did arrive, but not until Jan 4. Jan 1985 had avg high of 34 and avg. mean temp of 27, so it was much colder than normal, and much, much colder than Dec.

Wow, the formatting of the data got lost, and I can't seem to fix it. For those not faint-of-heart the date is underlined and blue, and the 3 numbers that follow the date are the high, mean, and low temps in that order. Sorry.

January was actually underrated. There was a decent 3-5" event mid month before the arctic plunge and another at the end of the month. Plus lots of minor events. It didn't add up to much but it snowed a lot that month. I had plenty of snow days. Once the pattern flipped the 1st week of January it stuck around for 6 weeks. -EPO/+PNA/-NAO and a trough off Newfoundland. You can't get much of a better pattern than we had. Just not much of a southern stream I suppose. I doubt we get a good pattern for that long this winter, but if we did, I think 15-20" + for most of us is certainly not unrealistic.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I remember that January cold spell - it was the last time I remember having subzero highs. (I was in 9th grade) the front came through on a friday afternoon, preceeded by a bit of light snow that morning/early afternoon that got us out of school a bit early. The next day (saturday) was ridiculously windy and cold. I don't remember the actual temps, but do vividly recall the forecast on the radio for highs from -5F to 0. That night's lows were forecast to be -10 to -15F. It hasn't come close to being that cold here since. That was the weekend of the Inauguration - the coldest in history. Unfortunately, I don't recall much in the way of snow that year.

Edit:

I went back and checked the records for that Dec & Christmas (1984) period and it is ugly:

1984Temp. (°F)Dew Point (°F)Humidity (%)Sea Level Press. (in)Visibility (mi)Wind (mph)Precip. (in)EventsDechigh avg low highavglowhighavglowhighavglowhighavglowhighavghighsum 152 40 29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.01 250 39 28 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 350 40 29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.03 454 42 29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 540 34 29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 636 33 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.43 735 26 18 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 826 22 18 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 945 31 17 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1047 36 24 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1144 37 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.03 1248 39 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1346 38 31 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.02 1469 57 45 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1548 45 42 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1662 51 40 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1753 48 43 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1870 60 51 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 1963 52 40 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.06 2059 48 37 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.07 2151 44 37 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 2256 46 35 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.29 2360 46 31 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.02 2447 38 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 2553 43 33 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.06 2633 26 20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 2744 32 20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.02 2848 42 37 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 2966 54 41 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 3075 58 41 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.02 3152 46 40 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.03

Dec avg high was 51 and the avg. mean temp was 42. 75F on Dec 30!?!. How miserable. We got a cold front late on Christmas night which gave us 1 chilly day after, but the torch was quickly re-lit. Colder pattern did arrive, but not until Jan 4. Jan 1985 had avg high of 34 and avg. mean temp of 27, so it was much colder than normal, and much, much colder than Dec.

Wow, the formatting of the data got lost, and I can't seem to fix it. For those not faint-of-heart the date is underlined and blue, and the 3 numbers that follow the date are the high, mean, and low temps in that order. Sorry.

The main front came into the US (at least the east) on Saturday night. I can't remember what the weather on Friday was, but I remember the front came screaming through swva about 10 or 11 that night with heavy snow squalls. The temps were probably around 30. When I got up that next morning, Super Bowl Sunday, Jan. 20, 1985, the temp was 7 below, with about 7 inches of powdery snow, and didn't climb any during the day. The next morning was the real deal. It got down to 25 below in my area. I don't know what the weather was like up here. Probably not quite as cold. Don't know about the snow.

[WinterWxLuvr]

January was actually underrated. There was a decent 3-5" event mid month before the arctic plunge and another at the end of the month. Plus lots of minor events. It didn't add up to much but it snowed a lot that month. I had plenty of snow days. Once the pattern flipped the 1st week of January it stuck around for 6 weeks. -EPO/+PNA/-NAO and a trough off Newfoundland. You can't get much of a better pattern than we had. Just not much of a southern stream I suppose. I doubt we get a good pattern for that long this winter, but if we did, I think 15-20" + for most of us is certainly not unrealistic.

I'd take that. Do you know anything about the other weather facts of the 84-85 winter that we might compare to see how well they line up?

[EastCoast NPZ]

The main front came into the US (at least the east) on Saturday night. I can't remember what the weather on Friday was, but I remember the front came screaming through swva about 10 or 11 that night with heavy snow squalls. The temps were probably around 30. When I got up that next morning, Super Bowl Sunday, Jan. 20, 1985, the temp was 7 below, with about 7 inches of powdery snow, and didn't climb any during the day. The next morning was the real deal. It got down to 25 below in my area. I don't know what the weather was like up here. Probably not quite as cold. Don't know about the snow.

Certainly not that cold, and we didn't get much accumulation from the snow that fell that Friday afternoon (there was a bit left on the ground from a prior event as I recall, though don't recall the actual event; fortunately Zwyts does). We didn't get any snow with the passage of the front, and no squalls behind it either. I seem to remember hearing about an upper-level low that could give us snow, but it never happened up here; sounds like that's what you got in SWVA. That snowpack obviously got you colder, and perhaps you were most under the arctic HP that night also. -25F is impressive.

[Deck Pic]

I'd take that. Do you know anything about the other weather facts of the 84-85 winter that we might compare to see how well they line up?

it was a weak/moderate 2nd year Nina.....but it was in the middle of a strongly +PDO phase.....so I doubt we get a look that good for so long this winter..I didn't think it was a very good analog when I was doing the outlook, but that doesn't mean there won't be some similarities......10-15" is a good January, but I almost think it underperformed the pattern a bit....and that was the narrative of the winter....underperformance in good patterns and underperformance in bad patterns....DEC/FEB/MAR were virtual shutouts

[BethesdaWX]

29.7 degrees imby, 27 in G-town, 29 at reston...DCA still at 40.. They'll never make it.

[WxUSAF]

IAD and BWI are down to 27F and DCA's stuck at 35F.

[H2O]

DCA is the lolz 33F for me this morning. I would still like to crack the 20s at some point.

[WxUSAF]

Wake up weenies!

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfssnow126.gif

[MN Transplant]

34.6 front yard, 34.3 in the back. Some frost on the car and at ground level. Nicer than yesterday morning because of the still conditions.

[WxUSAF]

28F this morning IMBY.

[H2O]

Wake up weenies!

http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow126.gif

Congrats Ark.!

[mappy]

Frosty morning

[aldie 22]

23 here

[Kevin Druff]

24.9 here this morning. First morning with a 24 handle but have been around 25-26 probably 5 or 6 times now.

[mattie g]

Down to 27 IMBY. Lots of frost. It was rather chilly walking the dog this morning.

[RodneyS]

I can't imagine there's a much better match to November 2011 than what is posted below. I don't know how the comparisons in other aspects might match up. The map from December of that year isn't a good looking map for us either. Things did improve in Jan and Feb, and IIRC, that Jan was the massive cold blast.

Temperature-wise, November 1984 and November 2011 were quite different at DCA, with the former averaging 46.0 (95th warmest) and the latter averaging 52.4 (9th warmest). What made November 1984 unique is that the average temperature dropped 19.2 degrees from October -- the greatest October-November decline in DC history. December 1984 then recorded almost the identical average temperature as November, at 45.6 degrees, making it the warmest December ever in DC, with the November-December decline of 0.4 degrees being the third smallest in DC history. Then January plummeted to 30.8 degrees (25th coldest January), with the change of 14.8 degrees being the fourth greatest December-January decline in DC history. February 1985 was seasonable, at 37.8 degrees (59th warmest February). Ten inches of snow fell in January, with only 0.3 in December and a trace in February and March.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

34.6 front yard, 34.3 in the back.

26 here

[MN Transplant]

26 here

I did end up getting down to 33.5°. I got my 100° reading this summer, and now I'm greedy and want to see sub-zero sometime. But damn if my lows don't track DCA better than IAD or many of the other spots around.

[BethesdaWX]

Made it to 27 this morning, some frost on things too.

[Kmlwx]

Had ice on our deck this morning (some water had collected from the rain a few days ago).

[EastCoast NPZ]

^{23F for the overnight low here.}

[adelphi_sky]

All this cold weather is wreaking havoc with pipes. Can't find a plumber that can see me before next week.

[mitchnick]

yawn

sorta agree

it got down to 26 at BWI, I believe, which would make it the coldest of the year

but nothing special cold in the morning from radiational cooling is pretty unimpressive

otoh, if it was from cold air advection, with winds blowing at 20mph+, that's a different story

[H2O]

I now want DCA to get to Jan before first freeze

[BethesdaWX]

sorta agree

it got down to 26 at BWI, I believe, which would make it the coldest of the year

but nothing special cold in the morning from radiational cooling is pretty unimpressive

otoh, if it was from cold air advection, with winds blowing at 20mph+, that's a different story

No real action in the extended future either, snow chances but no good storms of turbulent/strong nature. I don't care if it's high wind, snow, ice, heavy rain, or whatever, just not this.