ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Thanks and you are probably right....I don't have much experience at these things....I think in 2000 the Atlantic changed 1st....but I guess these processes are so intertwined and complex anyway....I am not a pattern expert...it just seems to me that the PAC will keep defaulting to Nina climo until something dislodges it....hopefully the process you are suggesting plays out.... I'm not an expert either. I thought a change would happen earlier than appears. So obviously I was wrong. But based on the progression of the MJO (not likely to cause big changes but has a chance) and strat warming...I feel the PAC is more likely to change before tha ATL does aside from a transient N ATL ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 You are going to need to define "sweet". End of Jan - Feb is climatologically our snow period anyway. Enough to get us above average in snowfall I wrote my brief winter forecast based off the Sun/Earth energy relationship in a thread post somewhere during October, I'll try to find it. Basically it was warm December until mid-late January with a change to a colder regime taking hold at the very end of the month as a result of a potent east coast storm. More classic La Nina gradient to our north in March but a chance for an Ice storm then. I thought we might sneak something in during late December so I def f**ked that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just saying this for the record... 00z Euro snowfall is over a foot from DCA/IAD/BWI and points north up through northeastern PA. Tight snow gradient from BWI to the coast with basically nothing from VA beach up through southern Delmarva and southeastern NJ. Philly in the 4-8" range with 4-12" in the WV/VA mountains and the 2" contour going down into Raleigh. Good luck keeping that on the 12z run Doesn't get much better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just saying this for the record...00z Euro snowfall is over a foot from DCA/IAD/BWI and points north up through northeastern PA. Tight snow gradient from BWI to the coast with basically nothing from VA beach up through southern Delmarva and southeastern NJ. Philly in the 4-8" range with 4-12" in the WV/VA mountains and the 2" contour going down into Raleigh. Good luck keeping that on the 12z run Doesn't get much better than that. Euro is near hecs...it also shows light snow on new years eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just saying this for the record... 00z Euro snowfall is over a foot from DCA/IAD/BWI and points north up through northeastern PA. Tight snow gradient from BWI to the coast with basically nothing from VA beach up through southern Delmarva and southeastern NJ. Philly in the 4-8" range with 4-12" in the WV/VA mountains and the 2" contour going down into Raleigh. Good luck keeping that on the 12z run Doesn't get much better than that. Did you see the follow up to that storm? It is close to a repeat @ day 10 except looking at the 500's it would probably be OTS. Fun to look at but wouldn't put money on it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wow @ 00z Euro. Looks like the Ensembles generally have a similar idea (for at least the cold shot) as well for the 3rd. Ensembles also keep the idea from yesterday's 00z of riding from Asia almost meeting the PNA ridge over the pole in the long range. Today's 00z Op abandoned that it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the Wunderground map on the Euro at 180 hrs is a thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wow @ 00z Euro. Looks like the Ensembles generally have a similar idea (for at least the cold shot) as well for the 3rd. Ensembles also keep the idea from yesterday's 00z of riding from Asia almost meeting the PNA ridge over the pole in the long range. Today's 00z Op abandoned that it looks like. Sort of like that famous Michaelangelo painting where God reaches down and touches the finger of man. If we can get those ridges to hook up all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wow @ 00z Euro. Looks like the Ensembles generally have a similar idea (for at least the cold shot) as well for the 3rd. Ensembles also keep the idea from yesterday's 00z of riding from Asia almost meeting the PNA ridge over the pole in the long range. Today's 00z Op abandoned that it looks like. They have the cold shot but the mean does not have the big storm, Mitchnick's thing of beauty. Niehter the GFS for GEFS like the euro idea. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. The evolution of the pattern seems to play to both model's biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the Wunderground map on the Euro at 180 hrs is a thing of beauty Boy is it ever. They have the cold shot but the mean does not have the big storm, Mitchnick's thing of beauty. Niehter the GFS for GEFS like the euro idea. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. The evolution of the pattern seems to play to both model's biases. No, GFS has a very different look. I wouldn't really expect the mean to have a similar look with a Day 7 prog. Having the cold shot is good at this range, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Has the GFS been replaced by the Euro wrt fantasy snow storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the Wunderground map on the Euro at 180 hrs is a thing of beauty The way the 850 low pops in just the right spot is like a weenie drew it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Boy is it ever. No, GFS has a very different look. I wouldn't really expect the mean to have a similar look with a Day 7 prog. Having the cold shot is good at this range, IMO. The ukmet is also much different. it looks like it would give a transitory cold shot but not deliver anything similar to the euro. The euro like amplitude at times so I still look at it with some skepticism but it does looks like the ukmet also like a pna pattern but with no big cross polar link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 fwiw, this is the 4th run in a row for the Euro that has the deep/cut-off trough in the east, so in that respect the Euro has been consistent though this is the first run with such a great storm for I95 darn shame it's 8 days out (understatement of the season...so far!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 fwiw, this is the 4th run in a row for the Euro that has the deep/cut-off trough in the east, so in that respect the Euro has been consistent though this is the first run with such a great storm for I95 darn shame it's 8 days out (understatement of the season...so far!) With a positive nao in a la nina year, the euro is really going for a long shot. Could happen but it's still pretty unlikely and is a long shot. that the ukmet and gfs ensembles are not on board and the latter show lots of variability suggests despite the euro's consistency, there is not much predictability to the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The only reason I raise an eyebrow about the Euro's take on things is that there seems to be an atmospheric bias toward cut-off lows for the last several months and perhaps the Euro is catching onto the next one early. Having said that, no reason, if there is indeed a cut-off low scenario in the cards, that it will set up in a way that benefits the MA as ideally as last night's run did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 With a positive nao in a la nina year, the euro is really going for a long shot. Could happen but it's still pretty unlikely and is a long shot. that the ukmet and gfs ensembles are not on board and the latter show lots of variability suggests despite the euro's consistency, there is not much predictability to the pattern. I'm not picky with snow, I'll gladly take a fluke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Looks like the bad pattern is finally starting to break down a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The only reason I raise an eyebrow about the Euro's take on things is that there seems to be an atmospheric bias toward cut-off lows for the last several months and perhaps the Euro is catching onto the next one early. Having said that, no reason, if there is indeed a cut-off low scenario in the cards, that it will set up in a way that benefits the MA as ideally as last night's run did. Most of us are not taking the MECS from the 00Z Euro seriously. We are more interested in the pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Most of us are not taking the MECS from the 00Z Euro seriously. We are more interested in the pattern changes. Right. Me too. Just noting that the idea of a cutoff low in what has been a season of cutoff lows isn't outlandish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 HPC has something to say.... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 308 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011 VALID 12Z SAT DEC 31 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 03 2012 ...SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BUCKLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS FROM ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE 140TH MERIDIAN WEST. THIS CAUSES SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA /WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CEASE ON SATURDAY/ AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS. THE GUIDANCE SHARES THESE IDEAS. BY SUNDAY...THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN/00Z GEFS MEAN PROGRESS THE TROUGH A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. SINCE THE FLOW IS SO AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM...A SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH EAST OF THE PLAINS MAKES SENSE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF GOES A STEP TOO FAR BY DEVELOPING A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WHICH MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO SLOW/STRONG WITH SYSTEMS BEYOND 120 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE...BUT ITS SOLUTION IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. STARTED WITH A 40/40/20 COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN EARLY ON BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER. PRESSURE-WISE...THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY. ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 January... Rockin Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 January... Rockin Book it Don't mess with us Ian! Euro sure is nice to look at - wish that fantasy land storm came true...a storm where Philly/NJ gets less than us? Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Don't mess with us Ian! Euro sure is nice to look at - wish that fantasy land storm came true...a storm where Philly/NJ gets less than us? Sign me up. Just wait. Big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 January... Rockin Book it So happy you are back, now you have the fancy camera to take pictures of our 12 inches we are getting next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just saying this for the record... 00z Euro snowfall is over a foot from DCA/IAD/BWI and points north up through northeastern PA. Tight snow gradient from BWI to the coast with basically nothing from VA beach up through southern Delmarva and southeastern NJ. Philly in the 4-8" range with 4-12" in the WV/VA mountains and the 2" contour going down into Raleigh. Good luck keeping that on the 12z run Doesn't get much better than that. I assumed with that track that we would mix some or a lot?.....not that it matters this far out....which is why I didn't take it too seriously, especially with a track over Hatteras and just east of Ocean City then taking a northwest turn and passing over Scranton PA and Syracuse.....sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I assumed with that track that we would mix some or a lot?.....not that it matters this far out....which is why I didn't take it too seriously, especially with a track over Hatteras and just east of Ocean City then taking a northwest turn and passing over Scranton PA and Syracuse.....sure for us, about as 1/25/00 as you can get at this range gotta' admit, it just keeps popping up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Even Ji won't bite on a bullseye solution 8 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 for us, about as 1/25/00 as you can get at this range gotta' admit, it just keeps popping up! other than the fact that 1/25/00 had a -EPO, a split flow, a block and occurred in an already established stable pattern, they are almost the same!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Really just look at these rain solutions that are modeled to drop an inch or more several days out but when it comes to game time we MIGHT get a quarter to half an inch at best. That thing on the euro if it ever happens will end up cutting so far West we may only see light drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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