NoVaWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Day 4 clipper seems warm but something to watch for flurries I guess. Better than nothing for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I just want a 1-3" event in the next 10-14 days....the pattern change can wait...if it happens at all, probably not for 2-3 weeks.....MJO should be in phase 7 by January 5-10.....maybe that will then induce a change to a better pattern..... I'm tired of the landscape being green....not sure bare and brown is better but other than trees not having leaves it hasn't really felt or looked much like winter at all....a nice bed of white even if it is only 1" would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I just want a 1-3" event in the next 10-14 days....the pattern change can wait...if it happens at all, probably not for 2-3 weeks.....MJO should be in phase 7 by January 5-10.....maybe that will then induce a change to a better pattern..... This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It is encouraging to see most models start some sort of change. It may not be what we want and yes, the Euro is showing false idols...but I think it's on to some sort of window of opportunity as the change looks fleeting. The GFS through 240 hours says what pattern change. It gives us another transitory cool shot but is way different than the Euro. I haven't looked beyond that time as the models are having a real tough time with the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I don't think anyone is taking the winter seriously.... FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think we need to set the bar lower....we still get snow in +NAO years.....clippers and other more modest events are what I am hoping for.....I think we may be waiting a long time for something that will never arrive, if we are expecting a killer pattern.....although it is day 8 and the solution is crazy, the PNA spike the euro is advertising is exactly the type of thing we need to score a modest/moderate event as our snow climo is improving.....our snow history is littered with <4" events that happened in so-so patterns....as much as we/I want it I think the focus on getting a block might be a bit of a red herring....we will probably just need to score/time something during a transient upswing First thing we need is some colder than normal temps. Without them, it is really hard to get snow so a nice pna or a change to a negative epo would be a big plus. The models seem to have a quick psotive pna especially the stormy euro. By 240 the gfs squashes it like a bug and has a pretty nasty looking pattern (at least to me). It has a really zonal look. Of course it probably is no more right than the euro was/is. It will be interesting to see whether the model and statistical MJO forecasts end up being correct about the mjo shifting past phase 5 into phases 8-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 we have been in phase 5 forever.....though it finally looks like it could move to 6 by new years...I don't know much about the MJO, but I am assuming the fact that it basically died and has been rotting in Phase 4/5 for the entire month has been a bad thing I think that's a good assumption. The mjo does offer possibilities for changes and for the trough to shift to the east coast which would be a good thing. Maybe it can even modulate the nao some. However, I'm not ready to jump on a pattern change yet but in reality don't really know. I'm riding the stats on the AO as a forecast tool until the progs clearly show it going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think we need to set the bar lower....we still get snow in +NAO years.....clippers and other more modest events are what I am hoping for.....I think we may be waiting a long time for something that will never arrive, if we are expecting a killer pattern.....although it is day 8 and the solution is crazy, the PNA spike the euro is advertising is exactly the type of thing we need to score a modest/moderate event as our snow climo is improving.....our snow history is littered with <4" events that happened in so-so patterns....as much as we/I want it I think the focus on getting a block might be a bit of a red herring....we will probably just need to score/time something during a transient upswing Just give me a 1 to 3 inch snowfall to track. I don't need a SECS, HECS or whatever. We need something at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm afraid the cold shot may be a spray of Glade, amid a cesspool of a pattern. The EC ensembles try to get the vortex back into AK again, but the Caspian ridge does try to nudge the PV south and keep some troughing over the east, but I see no signs of a true pattern change just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm afraid the cold shot may be a spray of Glade, amid a cesspool of a pattern. The EC ensembles try to get the vortex back into AK again, but the Caspian ridge does try to nudge the PV south and keep some troughing over the east, but I see no signs of a true pattern change just yet. That's what I was afraid of. The gfs sure doesn't look pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The CMC joins the EURO camp for next week...of course it's still a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 That's what I was afraid of. The gfs sure doesn't look pretty. The way I look at it, is that if I see the vortex in AK gone, or a -NAO ridge, then we have a pattern change. To me, it still looks like the key players in this pattern are still there....even if they are temporarily relaxed. I can't get too excited until they are gone, but the vortex looks a little dishelved which is good I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 meanwhile...it's a pretty raw day out today with light rain and 36 degrees at the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The CMC joins the EURO camp for next week...of course it's still a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The way I look at it, is that if I see the vortex in AK gone, or a -NAO ridge, then we have a pattern change. To me, it still looks like the key players in this pattern are still there....even if they are temporarily relaxed. I can't get too excited until they are gone, but the vortex looks a little dishelved which is good I guess. Here are the gfs 500h patterns for 180 hours. Look how flat they look and then look at the euro and 12Z ggem. The differences evoke a big wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wes, how many different ways are you going to say you don't buy us getting snow anytime soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 There ya go my man. We have to counter the heavy, heavy negative brigade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 There ya go my man. We have to counter the heavy, heavy negative brigade. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd A little more help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wes, how many different ways are you going to say you don't buy us getting snow anytime soon? I don't know whether it will snow or not though I think it unlikely. If someone is going to post a 180 hr GEM. I think it worth posting the ensemble for the same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I don't know whether it will snow or not though I think it unlikely. If someone is going to post a 180 hr GEM. I think it worth posting the ensemble for the same period. To be clear sir I posted that in response to that gentleman's statement about the GEM...not because I believed it....carry on now....thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 To be clear sir I posted that in response to that gentleman's statement about the GEM...not because I believed it....carry on now....thanks I wasn't criticizing you, I was defending me and why I posted. I think posting the GGEM was a legitimate thing to do on a wx forum but also think posting the ensembles were too. I probably need to tone down my number of posts and remember that most would rather talk about chances then hear negative thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I wasn't criticizing you, I was defending me and why I posted. I think posting the GGEM was a legitimate thing to do on a wx forum but also think posting the ensembles were too. I probably need to tone down my number of posts and remember that most would rather talk about chances then hear negative thoughts. Because of you, the bus is taking on rust. In all seriousness...it's fine to be a realist. I guess it (not you)starts wearing on people....the abject failure December has become. If we can't have snow, I'm going to troll you Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wes, I think everyone values your opinion greatly and are pleased that you're in our subforum. I know I do. Keep up the good work. FWIW...DT's on the big eastern trough train for the 3rd and thinks coldest air yet for the winter for the eastern CONUS from the 3rd-8th. Doesn't buy snow for the 95 corridor though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 So happy you are back, now you have the fancy camera to take pictures of our 12 inches we are getting next week. Hopefully it doesn't matter I don't know much about the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I took a couple of days off from my normal routine and didn't look at the lastest euro and gfs until now. Heh, pretty far apart. The nhem 500 anom @ 240 on the euro is the prettiest map I've seen in a long time but it's hard to buy it. It goes against everything weve seen for the last 6 weeks. The euro has been showing alot of "better" looks for quite a few runs now. I just wish it wasn't so lonely. I like the spike in the PNA. Both the euro and gfs agree on a pretty nice spike in the pna during the 12/31-1/4 timeframe. HPC likes it too. Got my fingers crossed for something interesting because I have a hunch we go back to the crapper by the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Because of you, the bus is taking on rust. In all seriousness...it's fine to be a realist. I guess it (not you)starts wearing on people....the abject failure December has become. If we can't have snow, I'm going to troll you Wes. December usually sucks anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I wasn't criticizing you, I was defending me and why I posted. I think posting the GGEM was a legitimate thing to do on a wx forum but also think posting the ensembles were too. I probably need to tone down my number of posts and remember that most would rather talk about chances then hear negative thoughts. I think the realism that you bring helps all of us. We know that you don't create the weather. I, for one, would like to hear someone give an honest evaluation of the Euro's performance lately. If someone tells me that it has verified the best, then that tells me that the others are pretty much junk because it hasn't been too good, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 People with super cool Euro access...how does the backside of that New Year's Eve clipper look for us? Looks like it tracks right overhead and is probably too warm, at least ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I wasn't criticizing you, I was defending me and why I posted. I think posting the GGEM was a legitimate thing to do on a wx forum but also think posting the ensembles were too. I probably need to tone down my number of posts and remember that most would rather talk about chances then hear negative thoughts. Don't pay any attention to me Wes....just stating why I posted it...your thoughts are fine to me...I can't control the weather...so it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 FWIW...DT's on the big eastern trough train for the 3rd and thinks coldest air yet for the winter for the eastern CONUS from the 3rd-8th. Doesn't buy snow for the 95 corridor though. Given the DEC temps, and the need for about a dozen features to fall into place for snow in this pattern, that doesn't seem like too risky a bet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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