December 2011 General Disc/Obs

[BethesdaWX]

Your made-up wind obs have gone over the top, dude.

there were 30-40mph gusts regionwide last night, nothing made up, look at mesonet and/or WXbug station data if you dont trust me. Old townhomes in g-town have pretty s**ty paneling around exterior doors.

You're so hell bent to trash me that you forget to check obs first. Why dude?

[jnis]

there were 30-40mph gusts regionwide last night, nothing made up, look at mesonet and/or WXbug station data if you dont trust me.

I heard the wind at around 5:00am. It sort of freaked me out as I wasn't expecting winds that strong. I've go an 80' oak that needs to be taken down, so gusts like that make me worry.

[BethesdaWX]

I heard the wind at around 5:00am. It sort of freaked me out as I wasn't expecting winds that strong. I've go an 80' oak that needs to be taken down, so gusts like that make me worry.

Damn that blows, might be a good idea to remove it sooner rather than later as those big trees can pwn a house pretty easily.

[packbacker]

With the monster vortex over iceland that is not a negative AO. Here's the actually calculated values for the map. The euro ensembles also have a positive ao. The gefs ensembles also ahve a strongly positive ao through the period.

The euro and its ensembles doe have a strong positive pna pattern but the euro also sort fo shows a positive epo with the low heights over Ak and above normal heights to the south. The gefs ensembles really show the epo being strongly positive.

While the euro amplitude across the west may ultimately be correct, i'd be hesitant to give it much credence. It has given several false alarms...plus the gfs ensemble mean forecast fo the pna pattern has it actually going negative down the road.

Well atleast the GFS ENS has the AO going negative for several days, haven't seen that in a long time, even if it's 7+ days out.

[usedtobe]

Well atleast the GFS ENS has the AO going negative for several days, haven't seen that in a long time, even if it's 7+ days out.

They are quite a bit different than the CPC version or even the 00Z run on that site. If you look at the forecasts, they the index has gnerally verified higher than the forecast this fall and winter. So I guess I'm saying, we'll see.

[nw baltimore wx]

Wrap-around flurries!!

[nw baltimore wx]

Wrap-around flurries!!

Looks windy too.

Hey, BB. Bungees are on sale this week at HD. I don't want the new wife chasing down the grill cover in her nightgown Wed morning.

[mitchnick]

Looks windy too.

Hey, BB. Bungees are on sale this week at HD. I don't want the new wife chasing down the grill cover in her nightgown Wed morning.

wouldn't have cared if the "old" one had to, would ya'?

[Bob Chill]

The 0z euro @ 240 has one of the better looks around the pole than we have seen in probably 6 weeks. Not good enough but ridging at the pole is the beginning "something different".

IF the vortex over n canada were to propegate south the ridging just south of greenland would continue to build N and potentially give the first sign of a -nao. Of course, the model will probably give a much different look @ 12z but we'll see in a couple hours. It's crazy how long that ALL of the major teleconnections have been out of favor for the EC. Something has to give eventually......and it better not be mid March dammit!

[mitchnick]

The 0z euro @ 240 has one of the better looks around the pole than we have seen in probably 6 weeks. Not good enough but ridging at the pole is the beginning "something different".

IF the vortex over n canada were to propegate south the ridging just south of greenland would continue to build N and potentially give the first sign of a -nao. Of course, the model will probably give a much different look @ 12z but we'll see in a couple hours. It's crazy how long that ALL of the major teleconnections have been out of favor for the EC. Something has to give eventually......and it better not be mid March dammit!

actually, it's had a similar look for 3 runs in a row, so maybe it's the start....maybe

[BethesdaWX]

Looks windy too.

Hey, BB. Bungees are on sale this

week at HD. I don't want the new wife chasing down the grill cover in her nightgown Wed morning.

I'm way ahead of ya, BB will be kickin' in Miami.

[MN Transplant]

Stickin' to dem guns..in my untrained eyes, 3 weeks of crud left, sweet pattern sets up from the last week of January through February. Solar based reasoning.

You are going to need to define "sweet". End of Jan - Feb is climatologically our snow period anyway.

[MN Transplant]

I keep going back to how much worse it could be. Grand Forks, ND on average has 17.7" of snow so far. They have 1.4" this season and just threw up a +32 departure on the daily high, besting the record by 7. Not good for the winter sports.

[Ellinwood]

Awesome sky tonight... bright moon and whatever that other celestial object is next to it.

Edit: Pewpty-pants camera pic because I still need a real camera:

[wxmeddler]

Awesome sky tonight... bright moon and whatever that other celestial object is next to it.

I saw that too while emptying out the rain gauge tonight before the depressing deluge tomorrow. Looks to be Venus.

[Wonderdog]

Maybe Jan 6-7 (18z GFS) will be the beginning of the end of this slow start to trackable storms.

[Wonderdog]

I saw that too while emptying out the rain gauge tonight before the depressing deluge tomorrow. Looks to be Venus.

It is Venus.

[nw baltimore wx]

I saw that too while emptying out the rain gauge tonight before the depressing deluge tomorrow. Looks to be Venus.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45791048?

[kurtstack]

Maybe Jan 6-7 (18z GFS) will be the beginning of the end of this slow start to trackable storms.

This has been a very quiet year on the GFS fantasy storm front. Well at least the GFS finally came around and gave us a huge weenie fantasy blizzard on January 6th. Sure is nice to see a real snowstorm on the models again.

[ohleary]

The first week of January could be interesting if you believe the Euro. The GFS is all over the place from run to run after 7 days while the Euro at 7-10 days has been fairly consistent the last four cycles with a large trough over the eastern U.S. At least something interesting to watch!

[Deck Pic]

the Euro is kind of crazy by day 8.....has highs only in the 20s by mid next week....a serious cold outbreak.....by day 10 there is ridging over Greenland and a big PNA ridge....the storm that develops along the the cold front next Tuesday looks interesting as well but kind of goofy with a cutoff that slowly drifts north.....it is probably rushing things, but easily the most encouraging run I have seen all winter...

[TowsonWeather]

This has been a very quiet year on the GFS fantasy storm front. Well at least the GFS finally came around and gave us a huge weenie fantasy blizzard on January 6th. Sure is nice to see a real snowstorm on the models again.

It did?

[Deck Pic]

It did?

it was 300 hours out and it is gone on the 0z run....I don't think it really matters

[Nikolai]

the Euro is kind of crazy by day 8.....has highs only in the 20s by mid next week....a serious cold outbreak.....by day 10 there is ridging over Greenland and a big PNA ridge....the storm that develops along the the cold front next Tuesday looks interesting as well but kind of goofy with a cutoff that slowly drifts north.....it is probably rushing things, but easily the most encouraging run I have seen all winter...

EURO looks transient to me... I think the ridging over Greenland is ok at the end of the run, but by that time we have a huge trough/part of the PV(?) sitting in Alaska and Canada is getting flooded with warm air...

[Deck Pic]

The GFS is more progressive with the trough next week so no storm....but it looks at least possible/probable that we get a cold front early next week and a +PNA, and maybe our coldest weather of the season, though that isnt saying much....the Atlantic is better on the euro, but I am guessing the pattern change is a process that will take a while....

[MDstorm]

the Euro is kind of crazy by day 8.....has highs only in the 20s by mid next week....a serious cold outbreak.....by day 10 there is ridging over Greenland and a big PNA ridge....the storm that develops along the the cold front next Tuesday looks interesting as well but kind of goofy with a cutoff that slowly drifts north.....it is probably rushing things, but easily the most encouraging run I have seen all winter...

Per the Euro, next Tuesday brings not only cold weather, but also snow. I agree that the set-up for the snow is suspect, but I believe that the cold air is for real. The Euro has been advertising a major amplification into the east for the last several runs. The issue of precip timed with the cold air arrival is much less certain. I've had several inches of "Euro model snow" disappear so far this cold season. Anyway, it beats looking at seasonal to mild boring weather at this point. What ever happens the first few days of January, I think that we may have to wait until mid-later January for a more sustained pattern change. For now, though, we need something...soon.......

MDstorm

[Deck Pic]

EURO looks transient to me... I think the ridging over Greenland is ok at the end of the run, but by that time we have a huge trough/part of the PV(?) sitting in Alaska and Canada is getting flooded with warm air...

yes....the EPO pattern never gets good, and I doubt it will until we get a block....This is guesswork, but my guess is the Atlantic leads the way....The PAC will keep defaulting/snapping back to a bad EPO pattern until we get a block...the block has to come 1st.....I am encouraged by this run just because it is showing something different....it is a process and perhaps the process starts next week with the big front.....plus a colder air mass and better climo gives us a better chance for timing something imperfect....

[Deck Pic]

Per the Euro, next Tuesday brings not only cold weather, but also snow. I agree that the set-up for the snow is suspect, but I believe that the cold air is for real. The Euro has been advertising a major amplification into the east for the last several runs. The issue of precip timed with the cold air arrival is much less certain. I've had several inches of "Euro model snow" disappear so far this cold season. Anyway, it beats looking at seasonal to mild boring weather at this point. What ever happens the first few days of January, I think that we may have to wait until mid-later January for a more sustained pattern change. For now, though, we need something...soon.......

MDstorm

we do get snow on this run, but the solution is not only 8-9 days away, but also seems kind of preposterous....I like that we are probably getting a cold shot next week...I am less concerned at this range about whether a storm develops along the front like the Euro is advertising....

[ORH_wxman]

Euro tries to ridge a bit over Greenland, but that is fleeting IMHO. I think its much more likely the PAC side collapses before the ATL side does, but I def could be wrong.

The vortex is so unbelievably strong over Baffin Island in the long range (and has been already)....there is a slight chance the MJO helps out in early January, but even if it doesn't...the warming in the stratosphere has been on the Asian side...so if it downwells it would probably break down the AO on that side first...and if the MJO actually propagates into phase 7/8 in a meaningful fashion, its still the PAC side it would affect from the lower levels upward. The ATL would prob respond later.

This is typical for the scenario, but its not gospel...lots of things can go haywire and there is no guarantee the PAC changes first...but I just favor it.

The ATL side is probably the toughest thing to figure out in long range forecasting. Nobody has ever shown to have much skill in forecasting the NAO beyond 2 weeks.

[Deck Pic]

Euro tries to ridge a bit over Greenland, but that is fleeting IMHO. I think its much more likely the PAC side collapses before the ATL side does, but I def could be wrong.

The vortex is so unbelievably strong over Baffin Island in the long range (and has been already)....there is a slight chance the MJO helps out in early January, but even if it doesn't...the warming in the stratosphere has been on the Asian side...so if it downwells it would probably break down the AO on that side first...and if the MJO actually propagates into phase 7/8 in a meaningful fashion, its still the PAC side it would affect from the lower levels upward. The ATL would prob respond later.

This is typical for the scenario, but its not gospel...lots of things can go haywire and there is no guarantee the PAC changes first...but I just favor it.

The ATL side is probably the toughest thing to figure out in long range forecasting. Nobody has ever shown to have much skill in forecasting the NAO beyond 2 weeks.

Thanks and you are probably right....I don't have much experience at these things....I think in 2000 the Atlantic changed 1st....but I guess these processes are so intertwined and complex anyway....I am not a pattern expert...it just seems to me that the PAC will keep defaulting to Nina climo until something dislodges it....hopefully the process you are suggesting plays out....