BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 This is just getting silly now. Does this deserve a coherent response, phinphin? Total $$ to smash! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Does this deserve a coherent response, phinphin? Total $$ to smash! Your made-up wind obs have gone over the top, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Your made-up wind obs have gone over the top, dude. there were 30-40mph gusts regionwide last night, nothing made up, look at mesonet and/or WXbug station data if you dont trust me. Old townhomes in g-town have pretty s**ty paneling around exterior doors. You're so hell bent to trash me that you forget to check obs first. Why dude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 there were 30-40mph gusts regionwide last night, nothing made up, look at mesonet and/or WXbug station data if you dont trust me. I heard the wind at around 5:00am. It sort of freaked me out as I wasn't expecting winds that strong. I've go an 80' oak that needs to be taken down, so gusts like that make me worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I heard the wind at around 5:00am. It sort of freaked me out as I wasn't expecting winds that strong. I've go an 80' oak that needs to be taken down, so gusts like that make me worry. Damn that blows, might be a good idea to remove it sooner rather than later as those big trees can pwn a house pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 With the monster vortex over iceland that is not a negative AO. Here's the actually calculated values for the map. The euro ensembles also have a positive ao. The gefs ensembles also ahve a strongly positive ao through the period. The euro and its ensembles doe have a strong positive pna pattern but the euro also sort fo shows a positive epo with the low heights over Ak and above normal heights to the south. The gefs ensembles really show the epo being strongly positive. While the euro amplitude across the west may ultimately be correct, i'd be hesitant to give it much credence. It has given several false alarms...plus the gfs ensemble mean forecast fo the pna pattern has it actually going negative down the road. Well atleast the GFS ENS has the AO going negative for several days, haven't seen that in a long time, even if it's 7+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Well atleast the GFS ENS has the AO going negative for several days, haven't seen that in a long time, even if it's 7+ days out. They are quite a bit different than the CPC version or even the 00Z run on that site. If you look at the forecasts, they the index has gnerally verified higher than the forecast this fall and winter. So I guess I'm saying, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Wrap-around flurries!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Wrap-around flurries!! Looks windy too. Hey, BB. Bungees are on sale this week at HD. I don't want the new wife chasing down the grill cover in her nightgown Wed morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looks windy too. Hey, BB. Bungees are on sale this week at HD. I don't want the new wife chasing down the grill cover in her nightgown Wed morning. wouldn't have cared if the "old" one had to, would ya'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The 0z euro @ 240 has one of the better looks around the pole than we have seen in probably 6 weeks. Not good enough but ridging at the pole is the beginning "something different". IF the vortex over n canada were to propegate south the ridging just south of greenland would continue to build N and potentially give the first sign of a -nao. Of course, the model will probably give a much different look @ 12z but we'll see in a couple hours. It's crazy how long that ALL of the major teleconnections have been out of favor for the EC. Something has to give eventually......and it better not be mid March dammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The 0z euro @ 240 has one of the better looks around the pole than we have seen in probably 6 weeks. Not good enough but ridging at the pole is the beginning "something different". IF the vortex over n canada were to propegate south the ridging just south of greenland would continue to build N and potentially give the first sign of a -nao. Of course, the model will probably give a much different look @ 12z but we'll see in a couple hours. It's crazy how long that ALL of the major teleconnections have been out of favor for the EC. Something has to give eventually......and it better not be mid March dammit! actually, it's had a similar look for 3 runs in a row, so maybe it's the start....maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looks windy too. Hey, BB. Bungees are on sale this week at HD. I don't want the new wife chasing down the grill cover in her nightgown Wed morning. I'm way ahead of ya, BB will be kickin' in Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Stickin' to dem guns..in my untrained eyes, 3 weeks of crud left, sweet pattern sets up from the last week of January through February. Solar based reasoning. You are going to need to define "sweet". End of Jan - Feb is climatologically our snow period anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I keep going back to how much worse it could be. Grand Forks, ND on average has 17.7" of snow so far. They have 1.4" this season and just threw up a +32 departure on the daily high, besting the record by 7. Not good for the winter sports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Awesome sky tonight... bright moon and whatever that other celestial object is next to it. Edit: Pewpty-pants camera pic because I still need a real camera: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Awesome sky tonight... bright moon and whatever that other celestial object is next to it. I saw that too while emptying out the rain gauge tonight before the depressing deluge tomorrow. Looks to be Venus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Maybe Jan 6-7 (18z GFS) will be the beginning of the end of this slow start to trackable storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I saw that too while emptying out the rain gauge tonight before the depressing deluge tomorrow. Looks to be Venus. It is Venus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I saw that too while emptying out the rain gauge tonight before the depressing deluge tomorrow. Looks to be Venus. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45791048? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Maybe Jan 6-7 (18z GFS) will be the beginning of the end of this slow start to trackable storms. This has been a very quiet year on the GFS fantasy storm front. Well at least the GFS finally came around and gave us a huge weenie fantasy blizzard on January 6th. Sure is nice to see a real snowstorm on the models again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The first week of January could be interesting if you believe the Euro. The GFS is all over the place from run to run after 7 days while the Euro at 7-10 days has been fairly consistent the last four cycles with a large trough over the eastern U.S. At least something interesting to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 This has been a very quiet year on the GFS fantasy storm front. Well at least the GFS finally came around and gave us a huge weenie fantasy blizzard on January 6th. Sure is nice to see a real snowstorm on the models again. It did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the Euro is kind of crazy by day 8.....has highs only in the 20s by mid next week....a serious cold outbreak.....by day 10 there is ridging over Greenland and a big PNA ridge....the storm that develops along the the cold front next Tuesday looks interesting as well but kind of goofy with a cutoff that slowly drifts north.....it is probably rushing things, but easily the most encouraging run I have seen all winter... EURO looks transient to me... I think the ridging over Greenland is ok at the end of the run, but by that time we have a huge trough/part of the PV(?) sitting in Alaska and Canada is getting flooded with warm air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the Euro is kind of crazy by day 8.....has highs only in the 20s by mid next week....a serious cold outbreak.....by day 10 there is ridging over Greenland and a big PNA ridge....the storm that develops along the the cold front next Tuesday looks interesting as well but kind of goofy with a cutoff that slowly drifts north.....it is probably rushing things, but easily the most encouraging run I have seen all winter... Per the Euro, next Tuesday brings not only cold weather, but also snow. I agree that the set-up for the snow is suspect, but I believe that the cold air is for real. The Euro has been advertising a major amplification into the east for the last several runs. The issue of precip timed with the cold air arrival is much less certain. I've had several inches of "Euro model snow" disappear so far this cold season. Anyway, it beats looking at seasonal to mild boring weather at this point. What ever happens the first few days of January, I think that we may have to wait until mid-later January for a more sustained pattern change. For now, though, we need something...soon....... MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro tries to ridge a bit over Greenland, but that is fleeting IMHO. I think its much more likely the PAC side collapses before the ATL side does, but I def could be wrong. The vortex is so unbelievably strong over Baffin Island in the long range (and has been already)....there is a slight chance the MJO helps out in early January, but even if it doesn't...the warming in the stratosphere has been on the Asian side...so if it downwells it would probably break down the AO on that side first...and if the MJO actually propagates into phase 7/8 in a meaningful fashion, its still the PAC side it would affect from the lower levels upward. The ATL would prob respond later. This is typical for the scenario, but its not gospel...lots of things can go haywire and there is no guarantee the PAC changes first...but I just favor it. The ATL side is probably the toughest thing to figure out in long range forecasting. Nobody has ever shown to have much skill in forecasting the NAO beyond 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Thanks and you are probably right....I don't have much experience at these things....I think in 2000 the Atlantic changed 1st....but I guess these processes are so intertwined and complex anyway....I am not a pattern expert...it just seems to me that the PAC will keep defaulting to Nina climo until something dislodges it....hopefully the process you are suggesting plays out.... I'm not an expert either. I thought a change would happen earlier than appears. So obviously I was wrong. But based on the progression of the MJO (not likely to cause big changes but has a chance) and strat warming...I feel the PAC is more likely to change before tha ATL does aside from a transient N ATL ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 You are going to need to define "sweet". End of Jan - Feb is climatologically our snow period anyway. Enough to get us above average in snowfall I wrote my brief winter forecast based off the Sun/Earth energy relationship in a thread post somewhere during October, I'll try to find it. Basically it was warm December until mid-late January with a change to a colder regime taking hold at the very end of the month as a result of a potent east coast storm. More classic La Nina gradient to our north in March but a chance for an Ice storm then. I thought we might sneak something in during late December so I def f**ked that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just saying this for the record... 00z Euro snowfall is over a foot from DCA/IAD/BWI and points north up through northeastern PA. Tight snow gradient from BWI to the coast with basically nothing from VA beach up through southern Delmarva and southeastern NJ. Philly in the 4-8" range with 4-12" in the WV/VA mountains and the 2" contour going down into Raleigh. Good luck keeping that on the 12z run Doesn't get much better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just saying this for the record...00z Euro snowfall is over a foot from DCA/IAD/BWI and points north up through northeastern PA. Tight snow gradient from BWI to the coast with basically nothing from VA beach up through southern Delmarva and southeastern NJ. Philly in the 4-8" range with 4-12" in the WV/VA mountains and the 2" contour going down into Raleigh. Good luck keeping that on the 12z run Doesn't get much better than that. Euro is near hecs...it also shows light snow on new years eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.