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December 2011 General Disc/Obs


Ellinwood

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Next 2 weeks (or longer) sucks--weather-wise.

In keeping with the holiday spirit, I found this post from the New England forum quite appropriate.

Weathafella's Holiday card to CT Blizz:

weathafella

Posted Today, 09:49 AM

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We get it, winter's over. Now stfu and have a Merry Christmas.

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The east coast is not the only area devoid of snow, I used to live in southwest Michigan in the Kalamazoo area and they are apparently having one of their worst starts to winter ever. This was a blurb from their weather at WWMT.com:

"Next week looks to be quiet as well, which means the meteorological winter season (which runs from December 1 until March 1) is off to one of the slowest starts on record in West Michigan (with respect to snowfall)."

Considering they are in a lake effect area, that is pretty bad.

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The east coast is not the only area devoid of snow, I used to live in southwest Michigan in the Kalamazoo area and they are apparently having one of their worst starts to winter ever. This was a blurb from their weather at WWMT.com:

"Next week looks to be quiet as well, which means the meteorological winter season (which runs from December 1 until March 1) is off to one of the slowest starts on record in West Michigan (with respect to snowfall)."

Considering they are in a lake effect area, that is pretty bad.

Interesting I heard on the wc that there was a pattern change this week in that the jet stream was moving north, bring storms into the pacific nw rather than the southwest. I dont know if that is considered a pattern change or not, but how might that affect us on the east coast???

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Stickin' to dem guns..in my untrained eyes, 3 weeks of crud left, sweet pattern sets up from the last week of January through February. Solar based reasoning.

Call it Xmas optimism but I think things will get better sooner...the 6z GFS looks better than it has in a while...even that Tues cut off low is digging further south...not great but better...if we all could just see some snow it would make us feel better...

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Call it Xmas optimism but I think things will get better sooner...the 6z GFS looks better than it has in a while...even that Tues cut off low is digging further south...not great but better...if we all could just see some snow it would make us feel better...

I hope you're right brah. I'm just not convinced it'll happen that quickly, as stupid and silly as it sounds, I usually don't put much faith in LR modeling as much as the geomag principle lag factor compounded onto the earth's current atmospheric thermal budget (temp) + current solar wind value for stratospheric ozone compression value.

Call me crazy but this method has worked perfectly for me since I started using it in 2009, for both synoptic configuration and global temperature. I really think we all finish the winter with above average snowfall regionwide.

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0z Euro Day 10 shows probably the first legit -AO I've seen modeled in awhile. Has the +PNA basically link up with ridging from Asia and split the PV apart. Also has an arctic outbreak starting in the Upper Midwest at the same time. Of course the snow bomb that the 12z apparently had yesterday is gone, replaced with this giant closed low cutter that would probably give us a lot of rain and perhaps some snow at the end. Ensembles seem to look closer to the 12z yesterday solution in regards to the storm on/about the 2nd. They also match the big +PNA with the Op at Day 10 and also have a hint of ridging from Asia to meet it, but don't have the strength of the ridging over the Pole that the Op does.

Op Day 10: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNH240.gif

Ensemble Day 10: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens500mbHGHTNH240.gif

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0z Euro Day 10 shows probably the first legit -AO I've seen modeled in awhile. Has the +PNA basically link up with ridging from Asia and split the PV apart. Also has an arctic outbreak starting in the Upper Midwest at the same time. Of course the snow bomb that the 12z apparently had yesterday is gone, replaced with this giant closed low cutter that would probably give us a lot of rain and perhaps some snow at the end. Ensembles seem to look closer to the 12z yesterday solution in regards to the storm on/about the 2nd. They also match the big +PNA with the Op at Day 10 and also have a hint of ridging from Asia to meet it, but don't have the strength of the ridging over the Pole that the Op does.

Op Day 10: http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNH240.gif

Ensemble Day 10: http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNH240.gif

With the monster vortex over iceland that is not a negative AO. Here's the actually calculated values for the map. The euro ensembles also have a positive ao. The gefs ensembles also ahve a strongly positive ao through the period.

post-70-0-74765300-1324908187.png

The euro and its ensembles doe have a strong positive pna pattern but the euro also sort fo shows a positive epo with the low heights over Ak and above normal heights to the south. The gefs ensembles really show the epo being strongly positive.

post-70-0-23449000-1324908503.png

While the euro amplitude across the west may ultimately be correct, i'd be hesitant to give it much credence. It has given several false alarms...plus the gfs ensemble mean forecast fo the pna pattern has it actually going negative down the road.

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