NattyBo Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Absolutely pouring in downtown Rockville. Give me cold and dry over this misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This 60 degree weather makes me cringe when I hear songs like "Let it snow" on the radio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Most of you have probably already saw my post on the AO and the winters when the December AO index averaged +.80 or more. There are 15 years since 1950 when this occured. Out of those 15 years, 3 of them were either a 1st year or 2nd year Nina. 71-72 was a second year, 88-89 was a first year, and 99-00 was a second year. I downloaded the AO daily data and imported it into excel. I was able to create decent bar charts for the daily indicies but the date axis is a pain in the rear. The graphs below show a 153 day timeframe on the date axis. It's not too difficult convert in your head. 1-30 = Nov, 31-61= Dec, etc. I also included this year's Nov through yesterday from the CPC site for comparison. The AO can be quite a stubborn index when it's firmly positive or negative. This time last year was the complete opposite of what we have this year. There is no way to tell what happens next month but the stats do point towards a flip later rather than sooner. I plotted the same charts for the other 12 years too. When I was looking at them last night, a strong +AO can last as long as 80 days or so before any meaningful flip. There are a few other years like 88-89 that never flipped at all but I think the odds are against that happening this year. If I had to guess, we get a couple of short stretches of favorable -AO this winter but a flip to a long duration -AO is improbable based on the charts I've seen. I'm not saying it can't happen but the odds are against it. I'm going to do the same with the daily NAO index over the weekend and see if anything interesting pops up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 My glass half full outlook took it on the chin with today's GFS run. Here are a few good adjectives the sum up how I view the pattern: hideous wretched ghastly dreadful loathsome grim appalling horrid repugnant I think that sums it up pretty well. I would be at a loss for words if it got worse than progged. There is something larger at play here though. These 2 charts send a clear signal that 2 things that we need are extremely stubborn and have been since the end of August. Until something breaks here there is little we can do about it other than keep up the lighthearted banter and pass time. I remember an AFD from LWX some years back when we were having a bad drought. Don't remember the forecaster be he said something that has stuck with me for a while. The simple quote was "when in a persistent drought, it's best to forecast dry regardless of what the models are showing." During that year, it was right more than wrong until the tropics opened up and dumped like a foot of rain in a couple of days. It was kinda funny because before the deluge, the news was full of "it could take years to get the reservoirs and water table back to normal." I guess my point is that we are in a very stubborn pattern and even when the models throw us bones its probably best to assume a continuation of what we've been seeing. GFS sucks Euro is blech,, Ensembles are horrible , The CFS atrocious, analogs are god awful JB's forecast vomit, Wes's forecast are a nightmare. Hey I wonder what Weatherwiz's family psychic is saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 6z GFS maybe up to something near the end of the run, most exciting model run in the LR for like..ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 6z GFS maybe up to something near the end of the run, most exciting model run in the LR for like..ever No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 No. Hold it ellinwood, there is the possibility of a ""clipper"" affecting us , but yes your right there is nothing at all on this run for us. Somewhat cold and dry. I dont believe it, but that is what the model says. HOpefully it will be cold enough for snow makng at liberty moutain just above the md-pa border for maybe some skiing in the next two weeks. Have to wait and see. Happy holidays to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Hold it ellinwood, there is the possibility of a ""clipper"" affecting us , but yes your right there is nothing at all on this run for us. Somewhat cold and dry. I dont believe it, but that is what the model says. HOpefully it will be cold enough for snow makng at liberty moutain just above the md-pa border for maybe some skiing in the next two weeks. Have to wait and see. Happy holidays to all. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 According to the National Weather Service Daily Climate Report, last night Dulles Airport set a high temperature record for December 21st with a reading of 61 at 7:49 P.M. When was the last time a high temperature record was broken in the evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 According to the National Weather Service Daily Climate Report, last night Dulles Airport set a high temperature record for December 21st with a reading of 61 at 7:49 P.M. When was the last time a high temperature record was broken in the evening? No idea on time of day, but the record itself is interesting. Yesterday's 61° will stand as the 2nd coolest high temp record at Dulles, trailing only Jan 10th's 58°. Seems to have been one of the easier daily records to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 No idea on time of day, but the record itself is interesting. Yesterday's 61° will stand as the 2nd coolest high temp record at Dulles, trailing only Jan 10th's 58°. Seems to have been one of the easier daily records to break. Right, Dulles high temperature records are all over the lot -- especially in the winter -- due to their relatively brief (49-year) history, and so it was not surprising that the record was broken. But at 7:49 in the evening? I don't recall a previous all-time daily high being set in the evening around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 No. Instead of a one word answer, explain the reason why You always complain when others do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Instead of a one word answer, explain the reason why You always complain when others do it The explanation is: I'm just trolling the s*** out of the weenies right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Rain falling here in the last hour or so. .09 in the bucket and 50* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Getting some generous rains here this evening. Just shy of a third of an inch of rainfall, 49* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 rain. do not want right now. Should be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Crappy, rainy evening, 0.57" so far. It started at 5PM making the evening rush a lot slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 hahaha, just saw lightning and heart thunder...in December. 53 degrees @ 230AM, 0.61" of rain 2nite so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Anyone on here in Rockville right now? What the heck just flew by? My windows were rattling. My guess was a fighter jet but man it was LOUD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Anyone on here in Rockville right now? What the heck just flew by? My windows were rattling. My guess was a fighter jet but man it was LOUD. Santa? He put glasspacks on the sleigh this year from what I heard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Santa? He put glasspacks on the sleigh this year from what I heard maybe he's starting early this year. Columbia mall is absolutely packed, people parking in the street around the mall. Just unbelievable. For a slow recovery, everyone sure spending on xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 another .22 since midnight, close to an inch or so since the rain started yesterday evening sunny skies and 47* here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 the one good thing about this winter is the suffering that New England has had to endure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 the one good thing about this winter is the suffering that New England has had to endure Reading their subforum during snowless periods is almost as entertaining as snow itself (for me at least ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 the one good thing about this winter is the suffering that New England has had to endure Heh, it sucks when you live where it's supposed to snow alot and it doesn't. When I lived in the rockies, a crappy snow season was ungodly and practically unbearable. At least here we look at it like a treat. It's much easier to go without desert than breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Breezy today, had to go chasing after my grill cover for the first time this "winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Breezy today, had to go chasing after my grill cover for the first time this "winter". You need to invest 50 cents in a bungee cord or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Anyone on here in Rockville right now? What the heck just flew by? My windows were rattling. My guess was a fighter jet but man it was LOUD. I heard it as well. I thought it was fighter jets but the rumble seemed a bit off. Maybe a large low flying jet. The few times I've heard fighters fly over the sound was a quick escalation and decline. This was drawn out. Also a lot of sirens around this part of the county since about 3am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Breezy today, had to go chasing after my grill cover for the first time this "winter". LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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