The Dude Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I think there is a window of opportunity after christmas but it will take some good timing and luck....we may get a period of confluence to the north and a quasi 50-50 feature along with a +PNA, but the 1st 2 features are extremely fleeting as there is no blocking at all....what this suggests to me is that even if something happens it will be pretty imperfect....snow to rain or r/s line setting up west of the cities.....I think snow to rain may be the best we can hope for here if we want to get moisture up here from the south/southwest...i'd take a sloppy inch gladly Bleh. Snow to rain is my least favorite type of snow, but I'm afraid we can't afford to be picky this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Bleh. Snow to rain is my least favorite type of snow, but I'm afraid we can't afford to be picky this year... we can't afford to be picky 90% of winters.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Surely if the Chiefs can beat the Packers, we can get some snow between now and the end of the year. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Surely if the Chiefs can beat the Packers, we can get some snow between now and the end of the year. MDstorm Good luck. Although I would gladly welcome some heavy snow after watching that game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The only thing that gives me hope on the euro is that it shows ridging popping near greenland in the 216-240 frame. That is probably the only thing that can help keep the high to the north from effortlessly scooting off the coast. Right now it isn't enough but it is 9-10 days away afterall. There has been quite a bit of consensus for quite a few days now that there will be some sort of storm affecting the EC in the 26-29th timeframe. At least we have something to watch even if the odds are stacked us. The details are very subtle but the outcomes are quite different. Maybe things look more interesting once we get inside of 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I'm normally not a downer but at least for the time being I think our excitement will have to come from elsewhere with the crappy pattern. Maybe we can get a power grid crippling solar flare to give us some interesting stuff to watch - It would sure make amateur astronomy easier with no light pollution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT MARYLAND ...ALLEGANY COUNTY... 1 N FROSTBURG 1.1 700 AM 12/18 CO-OP OBSERVER ...BALTIMORE COUNTY... MIDDLE RIVER T 1248 AM 12/18 TRACE ON CARS ...CARROLL COUNTY... 3 NW SYKESVILLE 0.4 700 AM 12/18 COCORAHS 3 SE WINFIELD T 930 PM 12/17 TRAINED SPOTTER ...MONTGOMERY COUNTY... 2 WSW DAMASCUS T 700 AM 12/18 CO-OP OBSERVER VIRGINIA ...HIGHLAND COUNTY... 1 SW MILL GAP 0.1 600 AM 12/18 CO-OP OBSERVER ...MADISON COUNTY... BIG MEADOWS T 800 AM 12/18 PARK SERVICE WEST VIRGINIA ...BERKELEY COUNTY... 1 N MARTINSBURG ARPT T 800 AM 12/18 ASOS ...GRANT COUNTY... BAYARD 1.5 700 AM 12/18 CO-OP OBSERVER $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Nice winter's day today. I'll take lots of these intermixed with occasional snow very happily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 On our way back from DC early this morning to pick up our girls we came over the hill into Frederick on 270 to see a haze over the mountains. Encountered some light flurries once we got to 15. Nothing though down here where we live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 So, the GFS is really trying to make Christmas Eve sort of interesting? Keeps having a 1038 high in SE Canada...it's sliding out, moisture is trying to move into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 So, the GFS is really trying to make Christmas Eve sort of interesting? Keeps having a 1038 high in SE Canada...it's sliding out, moisture is trying to move into it. Check out the day after too. Nice If we can get that energy to turn later it would be huge!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 well, it's 180 hours, but the GFS is trying to throw us a bone. Yes, we know it'll likely be too warm, it has all kinds of problems, etc...but we need something...anything to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 well, it's 180 hours, but the GFS is trying to throw us a bone. Yes, we know it'll likely be too warm, it has all kinds of problems, etc...but we need something...anything to track. Let's get this thing going!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 If the AO ens forecast verify, this December's monthly AO index will come in as the highest in at least the last 60 years. Dec of 2006 was +2.282. There is a real chance that this month comes in @ +3.0 or higher and the odds of it coming in higher than 2006 look pretty good at this point. Winter months with a monthly AO index of +3.0 or higher are quite rare. I could only find 3 occurances in the DJF timeframe: Jan 1989: 3.106 Feb 1989: 3.279 Feb 1990: 3.402 I really don't want to throw out the 88-89 analog but there are some similarities. It was a strong nina coming after a multi year nino so that is different but there are some similarities that are hard to overlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Quite a pleasant morning. I like getting into the car at 45 degrees - I can actually not freeze my arse off before it heats up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12z NAM has a 1031 HP in southern Ontario on Friday at 18z. It shows our 850 temps near freezing and surface temps in the 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12z NAM has a 1031 HP in southern Ontario on Friday at 18z. It shows our 850 temps near freezing and surface temps in the 50s I don't think/hope we will be that warm, but we are going to need that high to do its job....mid to upper 40s is serviceable with the euro delayed solution....that would give us 12-18 hours to trickle down to the low to mid 30s before the onset of precip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 In this year of very marginal cold air, every degree counts. 6z GFS has us near 50F at the same time Friday and then has a fairly seasonable day for Christmas eve (low near freezing, high in the mid 40s) and a bit chillier than that for Christmas. I have a hard time believing that if the 850 low and surface low pass to our southeast and we have 850 temps of -1 - -4C that we'd be getting (predominantly) rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 In this year of very marginal cold air, every degree counts. 6z GFS has us near 50F at the same time Friday and then has a fairly seasonable day for Christmas eve (low near freezing, high in the mid 40s) and a bit chillier than that for Christmas. I have a hard time believing that if the 850 low and surface low pass to our southeast and we have 850 temps of -1 - -4C that we'd be getting (predominantly) rain. we wouldn't be...the euro, which I am sure is wrong in some or most details since it has to be at this range, is a snow event at least for part of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 NAM and GFS both have nearly 1" of rain from the storm late Thursday/early Friday. Wasn't looking so juicy earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 What is going on with the readings on the AO? I looked at it yesterday and it was down to near -1. Today, I go back and its been changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 What is going on with the readings on the AO? I looked at it yesterday and it was down to near -1. Today, I go back and its been changed? I don't know. I noticed the same thing but never really thought the ao looked negative to begin with. The index looks to be on the rise again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don't know. I noticed the same thing but never really thought the ao looked negative to begin with. The index looks to be on the rise again. I'm getting to the point now that I'm having a hard time trusting anything. Data, forecasts, patterns, you name it. It's not just not wanting to believe the bad forecasts either. Now I don't want to believe any of the good that comes out, rare as that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 My glass half full outlook took it on the chin with today's GFS run. Here are a few good adjectives the sum up how I view the pattern: hideous wretched ghastly dreadful loathsome grim appalling horrid repugnant I think that sums it up pretty well. I would be at a loss for words if it got worse than progged. There is something larger at play here though. These 2 charts send a clear signal that 2 things that we need are extremely stubborn and have been since the end of August. Until something breaks here there is little we can do about it other than keep up the lighthearted banter and pass time. I remember an AFD from LWX some years back when we were having a bad drought. Don't remember the forecaster be he said something that has stuck with me for a while. The simple quote was "when in a persistent drought, it's best to forecast dry regardless of what the models are showing." During that year, it was right more than wrong until the tropics opened up and dumped like a foot of rain in a couple of days. It was kinda funny because before the deluge, the news was full of "it could take years to get the reservoirs and water table back to normal." I guess my point is that we are in a very stubborn pattern and even when the models throw us bones its probably best to assume a continuation of what we've been seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Long range longwave pattern looks a bit improved in the overnight runs (0z Euro, 0z Euro ensembles and 6z GFS ensemble mean). They all maintain or strengthen the PNA after it relaxes a bit early next week. The Euro and its ensembles also both hint at bringing in some arctic air to the northern plains at Day 10 (although we're still enjoying an early spring). AO and NAO both still look very positive, however. But with a relaxed EPO and +PNA, that seems to get a bit of cold air southward. Can't believe the weenies didn't mention that 6z GFS has some light snow for us on Day 10 and the ensemble members have the New Year's period pretty stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Long range longwave pattern looks a bit improved in the overnight runs (0z Euro, 0z Euro ensembles and 6z GFS ensemble mean). They all maintain or strengthen the PNA after it relaxes a bit early next week. The Euro and its ensembles also both hint at bringing in some arctic air to the northern plains at Day 10 (although we're still enjoying an early spring). AO and NAO both still look very positive, however. But with a relaxed EPO and +PNA, that seems to get a bit of cold air southward. Can't believe the weenies didn't mention that 6z GFS has some light snow for us on Day 10 and the ensemble members have the New Year's period pretty stormy. I see the cold air pushing into the NP but looking at the NHEM panel shows more of the same ol same ol. Cutoff piece of energy in the SW pumping up the heights in the east. NAO still in the world class crapper. I assume this would mean a brief transient cold shot before a continuation of the same. I guess if the +pna is sustained it could get interesting for a random event. I'm not so good at understanding longwave stuff on the nhem panels though. Just the basics. If you think it looks better then I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If you think it looks better then I'm all in. Better =/ good. The last couple days were showing endless Pac jet firehose, trough over Alaska and the GOA along with the raging +AO and +NAO. Last night's/this morning's runs had the Alaskan trough weakening and the PNA at least diverting the Pac jet. Still have the +AO and +NAO. Not even a whisper of that changing yet. So better but not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Better =/ good. The last couple days were showing endless Pac jet firehose, trough over Alaska and the GOA along with the raging +AO and +NAO. Last night's/this morning's runs had the Alaskan trough weakening and the PNA at least diverting the Pac jet. Still have the +AO and +NAO. Not even a whisper of that changing yet. So better but not good. Makes complete sense. Until we can get a break in endless +ao/nao regime the pna will probably be our only shot. This time of year is ok though. Even seasonal air up north is enough. We just need something to track underneath us. Lotsa of energy in the sw this year. Maybe one of these can slide beneath us with a +pna. It's so weird out west too. SW Colorado has the most snow in the state by far. This is super uncommon during a nina. This nina should be called la nino so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Until we can get a break in endless +ao/nao regime the pna will probably be our only shot. This time of year is ok though. Even seasonal air up north is enough. We just need something to track underneath us. Pretty much. Without blocking, every scenario will be threading the needle (even more than usual with blocking) and be dealing with marginal cold air. But a big +PNA could get some chilly air into the CONUS, at least in a transient fashion. Lotsa of energy in the sw this year. Maybe one of these can slide beneath us with a +pna. It's so weird out west too. SW Colorado has the most snow in the state by far. This is super uncommon during a nina. This nina should be called la nino so far this year. Very Nino like in many respects. Torching Northern Plains, chilly southwest, fairly plentiful moisture for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Pretty much. Without blocking, every scenario will be threading the needle (even more than usual with blocking) and be dealing with marginal cold air. But a big +PNA could get some chilly air into the CONUS, at least in a transient fashion. Very Nino like in many respects. Torching Northern Plains, chilly southwest, fairly plentiful moisture for storms. I think the pattern is fairly typical of the positive west pacific oscillation regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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