Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I'm almost never up this late. I guess I gotta hang for another 30 mins and see if some of the 20-25dbz returns to the west of frederick hold together. It's pretty bad when a heavy flurry is keeping me awake. sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Flurries! Congrats. It's clear here. Maybe later whilst I'm sleeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 It's going to rain. I hope you have a massive bust on that call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I hope you have a massive bust on that call I don't bust except on cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I hope it's really sunny when it's snowing on the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 tiny tiny snowflakes, just came to recognize my maximum blowhardness in staying up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Fairly epic flizzard in Queenstown... Sticking to metal and plastic bits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbite_falls Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Snowing at a nice light pace here in Frostbite Falls...grass and cars have a pretty even coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 6z GFS still has a 28th storm. 0z Euro looks like it would maybe have a storm after the 28th (30th?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The 00Z GFS and Euro ensembles look horrible for snow lovers in the longer range. Both are very similar @ day 10 with a zonal look from Asia across the Pacific into and across the US. Up to day 15 on the GFS doesn't get any better. I was hoping that the very flat look we see develop with the 500's in the longer range was due to some model mayhem with the different members canceling each other out but after looking at the GFS members up to day 8 and their somewhat uniformity on this pattern developing I think that may just be wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 6z GFS still has a 28th storm. 0z Euro looks like it would maybe have a storm after the 28th (30th?). The GFS has no cold air with its storm and the operational is the best looking member of the bunch. The pattern still looks really sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The GFS has no cold air with its storm and the operational is the best looking member of the bunch. The pattern still looks really sick. After looking at the ensembles for the last couple of days that may be our best chance at seeing anything for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Missed the flurries if there were any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Saw like, 10 flurries on my walk this morning around 8:30. Specks of snow, really. Feels like Winter out there though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 After looking at the ensembles for the last couple of days that may be our best chance at seeing anything for quite a while. The 240 hour euro ens mean is a torch for most of the country. We're not yet that bad but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The 240 hour euro ens mean is a torch for most of the country. We're not yet that bad but.....it's coming see, I took the words right out of your thoughts! p.s. at least it's warm in Greenland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I woke up to car top and some roof dusting (around 830) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The flizzard knocked my power out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 If there's one good thing that comes as a result of no significant snowfalls, it's that we don't have to worry about folks greatly over exaggerating their totals. Gotta love the folks that report totals from the tallest drifts in their yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The flizzard knocked my power out The weight of the snow brought down tree limbs and power lines in Bethesda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 If there's one good thing that comes as a result of no significant snowfalls, it's that we don't have to worry about folks greatly over exaggerating their totals. Gotta love the folks that report totals from the tallest drifts in their yards. You're entititled to your opinion, I'd love to have Ji reporting 4 foot drifts and map girl18 10 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 12z GFS is a strung out mess... rain to snow I guess.. most of the QPF is rain though some could be wintry on the backend... but rarely do we even get that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 the euro is still not even close for the fri system.. tho i may be driving into snow on the way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I guess last night's flurries may be the only snow for the rest of December. Pretty sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Can't find much to point out on the 12z runs. Just a continuation of the blechs. Is there a site where I can run various time periods of AO dailies? I would prefer graphical but can work with numerical. I have a theory I want to test out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 euro finishes with cold overhead and precip over the South monday/tues... storm moves up coast into wed from GA to mouth of the bay. verbatim there's some cad snow on the front end before we pop to rain. mtns look good for now. tho it's d10.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 tho a closer look shows the cad mainly west of the cities. 0c 850 is about to dc as the precip begins. not to mention the high is running east off the coast. it is d10 tho so im not sure why im giving it a second post. rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 tho a closer look shows the cad mainly west of the cities. 0c 850 is about to dc as the precip begins. not to mention the high is running east off the coast. it is d10 tho so im not sure why im giving it a second post. rain. I think there is a window of opportunity after christmas but it will take some good timing and luck....we may get a period of confluence to the north and a quasi 50-50 feature along with a +PNA, but the 1st 2 features are extremely fleeting as there is no blocking at all....what this suggests to me is that even if something happens it will be pretty imperfect....snow to rain or r/s line setting up west of the cities.....I think snow to rain may be the best we can hope for here if we want to get moisture up here from the south/southwest...i'd take a sloppy inch gladly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 tho a closer look shows the cad mainly west of the cities. 0c 850 is about to dc as the precip begins. not to mention the high is running east off the coast. it is d10 tho so im not sure why im giving it a second post. rain. hr 222 nice hi in a good spot over northern NY low over fla panhandle and yet we still manage to get rain. this winter is sucking big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 hr 222 nice hi in a good spot over northern NY low over fla panhandle and yet we still manage to get rain. this winter is sucking big time there is nothing to keep the high from sliding to the east which it does....i'm not sure we will have a formidable air mass to work with anyway....we see this every winter, but especially in Ninas where there is usually not a real present STJ....when we have no blocking we need really good timing to get a proper track.....things get suppressed and sheared out if the confluence is too strong....and if a storm is capable of coming north it is usually accompanied by a really strong vort or ULL and there is nothing keeping it from cutting inland and taking a lousy track because the important features to the north are so transient...if we are going to get something coming from the south in this patttern, there is a high, high chance it will fail us...maybe some WAA snow....until we have a better pattern I'd rather see something coming with a NW flow and hope for .20" of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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