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December 2011 General Disc/Obs


Ellinwood

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The 00Z GFS and Euro ensembles look horrible for snow lovers in the longer range. Both are very similar @ day 10 with a zonal look from Asia across the Pacific into and across the US. Up to day 15 on the GFS doesn't get any better. I was hoping that the very flat look we see develop with the 500's in the longer range was due to some model mayhem with the different members canceling each other out but after looking at the GFS members up to day 8 and their somewhat uniformity on this pattern developing I think that may just be wishful thinking.

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If there's one good thing that comes as a result of no significant snowfalls, it's that we don't have to worry about folks greatly over exaggerating their totals. Gotta love the folks that report totals from the tallest drifts in their yards.

You're entititled to your opinion, I'd love to have Ji reporting 4 foot drifts and map girl18 10 feet.

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euro finishes with cold overhead and precip over the South monday/tues... storm moves up coast into wed from GA to mouth of the bay. verbatim there's some cad snow on the front end before we pop to rain. mtns look good for now. tho it's d10..

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tho a closer look shows the cad mainly west of the cities. 0c 850 is about to dc as the precip begins. not to mention the high is running east off the coast. it is d10 tho so im not sure why im giving it a second post. rain.

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tho a closer look shows the cad mainly west of the cities. 0c 850 is about to dc as the precip begins. not to mention the high is running east off the coast. it is d10 tho so im not sure why im giving it a second post. rain.

I think there is a window of opportunity after christmas but it will take some good timing and luck....we may get a period of confluence to the north and a quasi 50-50 feature along with a +PNA, but the 1st 2 features are extremely fleeting as there is no blocking at all....what this suggests to me is that even if something happens it will be pretty imperfect....snow to rain or r/s line setting up west of the cities.....I think snow to rain may be the best we can hope for here if we want to get moisture up here from the south/southwest...i'd take a sloppy inch gladly

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tho a closer look shows the cad mainly west of the cities. 0c 850 is about to dc as the precip begins. not to mention the high is running east off the coast. it is d10 tho so im not sure why im giving it a second post. rain.

hr 222 nice hi in a good spot over northern NY low over fla panhandle and yet we still manage to get rain. this winter is sucking big time

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hr 222 nice hi in a good spot over northern NY low over fla panhandle and yet we still manage to get rain. this winter is sucking big time

there is nothing to keep the high from sliding to the east which it does....i'm not sure we will have a formidable air mass to work with anyway....we see this every winter, but especially in Ninas where there is usually not a real present STJ....when we have no blocking we need really good timing to get a proper track.....things get suppressed and sheared out if the confluence is too strong....and if a storm is capable of coming north it is usually accompanied by a really strong vort or ULL and there is nothing keeping it from cutting inland and taking a lousy track because the important features to the north are so transient...if we are going to get something coming from the south in this patttern, there is a high, high chance it will fail us...maybe some WAA snow....until we have a better pattern I'd rather see something coming with a NW flow and hope for .20" of QPF

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