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December 2011 General Disc/Obs


Ellinwood

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GFS holding onto hope for the 26-28th timeframe. .25 precip looks to be all snow as far as I can tell. Surface above freezing but not by much. 850's are fine. DCA / BWI is the northern edge of the .25 line. Plenty of time for the NW trend so we can end up with a half inch of cold rain.

Still quite a ways to go but the rug hasn't been pulled out yet. IF we are going to get snow this month, this looks to be our only chance and it's probably not a good one either.

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GFS holding onto hope for the 26-28th timeframe. .25 precip looks to be all snow as far as I can tell. Surface above freezing but not by much. 850's are fine. DCA / BWI is the northern edge of the .25 line. Plenty of time for the NW trend so we can end up with a half inch of cold rain.

Still quite a ways to go but the rug hasn't been pulled out yet. IF we are going to get snow this month, this looks to be our only chance and it's probably not a good one either.

It's going to rain.

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The 00Z GFS and Euro ensembles look horrible for snow lovers in the longer range. Both are very similar @ day 10 with a zonal look from Asia across the Pacific into and across the US. Up to day 15 on the GFS doesn't get any better. I was hoping that the very flat look we see develop with the 500's in the longer range was due to some model mayhem with the different members canceling each other out but after looking at the GFS members up to day 8 and their somewhat uniformity on this pattern developing I think that may just be wishful thinking.

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If there's one good thing that comes as a result of no significant snowfalls, it's that we don't have to worry about folks greatly over exaggerating their totals. Gotta love the folks that report totals from the tallest drifts in their yards.

You're entititled to your opinion, I'd love to have Ji reporting 4 foot drifts and map girl18 10 feet.

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