jonjon Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm not gonna worry about the future, its time to enjoy our current virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Our correlation up here between snowless Dec and terrible winters is very high and very concerning. Looking at an AO reinvigorating and a crappy Atlantic, not good. How strong the positive nao looks through the period on the GEFS ensemble mean is a little unsettling and knowing that Bob Chill's research suggests Jan will probably also have a positive nao is also a downer though his years weren't as uniformly awful as one might expect for snow here. No stellar years but still quite a few that ended up with double figure amounts at DCA. But the majority did as well or better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 How strong the positive nao looks through the period on the GEFS ensemble mean is a little unsettling and knowing that Bob Chill's research suggests Jan will probably also have a positive nao is also a downer though his years weren't as uniformly awful as one might expect for snow here. No stellar years but still quite a few that ended up with double figure amounts at DCA. But the majority did as well or better than last year. Some years we can snow even with the crappiest pattern hopefully we get a break at some point. Thanks for the answers and tips up, lines tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Our correlation up here between snowless Dec and terrible winters is very high and very concerning. Looking at an AO reinvigorating and a crappy Atlantic, not good. I'd assume a bigger % of your seasonal snowfall is in Dec through. Ours is minor. From 49/50 forward at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 a yr out of date now but ill add update numbers to the dca snow thread Graph showing number of times it has snowed 1" or more at D.C. on a given date, from 1888-2010 (the historical record period of snowfall). http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/the_december_5_coincidence.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 More fun with numbers. Since 1949/50 at DCA If we got shut out Oct-Dec: Average snowfall after Jan 1 was 10.9" (11 cases) If we got 0"<x<2" in Oct-Dec: Average snowfall after Jan 1 was 13.0" (23 cases) If we got 2"<x<6" in Oct-Dec: Average snowfall after Jan 1 was 9.0" (13 cases) If we got >6" in Oct-Dec: Average snowfall after Jan 1 was 17.5" (15 cases) All winters after Jan 1: 12.9" So, a top 20% pre-Jan 1 period bodes very well for us, but the difference between a shutout and a moderate to even good early winter isn't much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 December 2011 sure has turned out to look a lot like December 2001. We had some sucker punches of cold air then too, even a moderate RIC snow event after the first of the year. But, winter really did not start in earnest until February 19...by then it was merely a springtime nuisance. -10 departures in early March after a blowtorch winter really aren't interesting. Noting that this month has featured a handful of clear sunny mild afternoons where naturally the temperature bottoms out nicely during the long dark night...sort of like a "in situ" cold air effect. If this doesn't scream January 2002 on it's face I don't know what does. Plenty of similarity to the global pattern and the perpetual "going to be better in 10 days" look to the NWP schemes. I've accepted it for now and holding out hope that February 19 2002 comes at least a month earlier this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 the entire Conus is a torch.....I thought maybe it portended something better down the road...se ridge flattened a bit....maybe some minor ridging in the Atlantic, but I am getting a bit desperate... I lived in central North Carolina during the '99-'00 winter. During that season we hit 80 degrees twice in December (a first) At RDU. Winter was comprised of 8 days in January, but it packed quite a wallop. I had 33 inches of snow during that 8 day period with 3 snows and an ice storm to finish it off. Even though it warmed up after the 8 day stretch, it took a month for all of the snow to melt. After that, I never give up on a winter until it is truly over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 a yr out of date now but ill add update numbers to the dca snow thread Graph showing number of times it has snowed 1" or more at D.C. on a given date, from 1888-2010 (the historical record period of snowfall). http://voices.washin...oincidence.html The chart tells it all. As everyone knows, mid January to early March is our time period. All the rest is wishful thinking. Would be interesting to compare this chart with one for IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 in other news: the nam sucks, again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Another Nina fail event. Got two raindrops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 At least it is nice and chilly out today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 At least it is nice and chilly out today Yup. Thank God for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 24 degrees and snowing already. Ground getting white again (thank God). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 another bust because of phantom clouds.. this has happened on saturday like 3 of the last 10. tho i dont think we've had real weather on saturday since the oct snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 12Z GFS thows us a bone on days 5/6, or at least something to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 I've got to admit that hearing matt getting discouraged is a little troubling, but looking at the latest gfs run i feel a little encouraged. I particularly like that the trough projected for next weekend is too far east based and keeps anything out to sea. Maybe a little wiggle room for whatever really happens? I'm also looking at the gfs on the tiny screen of my iPhone so who knows? Maybe I'm looking at the wrong run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 CT Blizz has thrown in the towel on this winter surprised to see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 12Z GFS thows us a bone on days 5/6, or at least something to follow looks like a better version of the euro at 12z yesterday but of course the euro bailed totally at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 It would be hysterical if we ended with a white Xmas after all the "near 0% chance" chatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 It probably won't be long before somebody completely blows a gasket. If it happens, I sure hope the mods don't delete it because we need some entertainment. I know the event that would do it to. You let a strong system lay down a good snow across southern Va, while our area is pc and cold, and I'll bet the fecal matter hits the fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 looks like a better version of the euro at 12z yesterday but of course the euro bailed totally at 0z. I think that I read that DC officially had a trace in October? Regardless, has there ever been a DC winter that was a shut out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 It would be hysterical if we ended with a white Xmas after all the "near 0% chance" chatter. Bob Ryan shouldnt have said near 0%.. since he's a probability guru he should have known that was a stupid prediction. I mean he'll probably be right but should at least go like 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 I think that I read that DC officially had a trace in October? Regardless, has there ever been a DC winter that was a shut out? No...the least amount ever recorded in a season at DCA was 0.1" (97-98) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 I think that I read that DC officially had a trace in October? Regardless, has there ever been a DC winter that was a shut out? we got a trace this mo too. lowest is .1" in 72-73 and 97-98 is lowest seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 It probably won't be long before somebody completely blows a gasket. If it happens, I sure hope the mods don't delete it because we need some entertainment.I know the event that would do it to. You let a strong system lay down a good snow across southern Va, while our area is pc and cold, and I'll bet the fecal matter hits the fan. My son is 11 months old this week and never seen a flake of snow. So long as the stripe of snow makes it as far north as I-64, I will be happy with this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Bob Ryan shouldnt have said near 0%.. since he's a probability guru he should have known that was a stupid prediction. I mean he'll probably be right but should at least go like 5% Yeah. Or even if he just said that our already normally low chances seem even lower this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 My son is 11 months old this week and never seen a flake of snow. So long as the stripe of snow makes it as far north as I-64, I will be happy with this scenario. Maybe you'd should move him to south Florida so you can protect his sanity. I hope we can all enjoy some snow. Man, it seems awfully early to be this pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The end of the gfs is a stinker but 216ish is something to watch. The 12/26-28 period is still keeping my interest. It's ots right now but not alot needs to change to put precip in our area. Cold is nearby, 850's are fine, trough looks ok, and ridge out west is ok. Models have been stuck on the idea of a transient cold shot around xmas and the following couple of days. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 euro gives a warm to chilly rain on friday then cool weekend. looks pretty standard for this yr so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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