easternsnowman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 BWI has had 10 straight months with above average temps, and 19 of the last 21 months. Gonna be a hard pattern to break. If you forecast any month on being 2 to 3 above average (1981-2010) you will be right most of the time. It seems that is the new normal and also you won't be dissapointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think it's a bigger coincidence that measurable snow has never been recorded in DC on December 1st. Every other day in the period November 22nd to April 9th has had measurable snow, but not the first day of the meteorological winter. That's a good one. Another one that is interesting is the lack of measurable snow on 12/30 and 1/2 in the full record of the current DCA measuring location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The subtitle for this thread is awesome at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 please tell me you aren't his best student Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Hush! I was just being helpful i was being serious https://www.google.com/#sclient=psy-ab&hl=en&source=hp&q=december+5th+coincidence&pbx=1&oq=december+5th+coincidence&aq=f&aqi=g-v1&aql=&gs_sm=e&gs_upl=594l4813l0l5016l24l6l0l12l12l0l563l1346l1.3.0.1.0.1l12l0&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=8b40193f813a0246&biw=1117&bih=756 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 i was being serious https://www.google.c...iw=1117&bih=756 Sorry. Next time I will pimp out CWG. My bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Early Xmas forcast: 55F and partly sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The first December 5th (2002) was my favorite by far, but I enjoyed all five of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Early Xmas forcast: 55F and partly sunny :puke: Unseasonable warmth from the 20-23rd, big cold front comes through early on Christmas eve, front stalls offshore and a wave rides up the front producing a widespread 4-6" snowfall Christmas day. Boxing Day is cold and then SE ridge brings back the blowtorch through New Year's Day when the pattern change finally arrives leading to an epic January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 ill be in ct for xmas so here's to the north trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The subtitle for this thread is awesome at the moment. I absolutely agree. And so is the primary title. People were complaining about how the November thread was a trainwreck...well it seems like those same people are the ones already derailing this thread. I love irony! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Early Xmas forcast: 55F and partly sunny I'll take it, especially if it's caused by a boiling Southeast Ridge. That'll mean I have good fishing and golfing weather in South Carolina during the holiday week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 ill be in ct for xmas so here's to the north trend! Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Somebody correct this if I am wrong. Haven't I heard that during times of pattern change that models will often struggle and often offer up solutions in consecutive runs that are highly variable (with respect to each other)? Is this correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 really out of practice with this whole "cold" thing, even in hacking wood all day im still freezing by butt off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The pattern change will come. We just have to be patient. I would much rather have a warm November/Early December. Our big snow time is January/Feb anyways. It will not stay warm all winter. So with it warm now the odds are good that we get the cold at just the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well, look at things this way. At least a torch in December wouldn't be 98 degrees with a 72 dew point! . . . . . . ...Would it??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I like Berk but he's pretty weenie http://www.americanw...ost__p__1153437 He is a great guy but very very very weenie ish when it comes to snow. It actually annoys me some but it is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 ill be in ct for xmas so here's to the north trend! Meh, Ill be in Texas, it will snow there this year for Christmas, its a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 00z GFS going in the right direction for our potential winter event, in developing the low pressure center(s) along the longwave boundary. Still think it's under-amplified especially towards the end but we'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 1322716344[/url]' post='1156205']00z GFS going in the right direction for our potential winter event, in developing the low pressure center(s) along the longwave boundary. Still think it's under-amplified especially towards the end but we'll see I guess. I'm pretty unimpressed with this event for us. So many factors going against us, we need to get super lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I'm pretty unimpressed with this event for us. So many factors going against us, we need to get super lucky. Yeah the broad pattern totally blows and very well could get worse as we go thru the month, but it's not impossible to score a moderate event to curb our complaining for a brief period March 1 2009 is somewhat similar to this I think. I'm just basing this off my amateur observation of satellite + weakness trends synoptically, I still feel good(ish) about this one despite the hideous larger scale pattern...not out of weenie wet dreams but simply a hunch in how it;ll be handled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 1322719040[/url]' post='1156271']Yeah the broad pattern totally blows and very well could get worse as we go thru the month, but it's not impossible to score a moderate event to curb our complaining for a brief period March 1 2009 is somewhat similar to this I think. I'm just basing this off my amateur observation of satellite + weakness trends synoptically, I still feel good(ish) about this one despite the hideous larger scale pattern...not out of weenie wet dreams but simply a hunch in how it;ll be handled. March 2009 had a pretty bad pattern in the PAC and Atlantic, but the PNA ridge was pretty classic. This setup is way different. We have a PV where we really want to see ridging. My guess is whatever develops probably goes to our west but that is just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 00z GFS going in the right direction for our potential winter event, in developing the low pressure center(s) along the longwave boundary. Still think it's under-amplified especially towards the end but we'll see I guess. what the 0Z giveth, the 6Z takes away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 March 2009 had a pretty bad pattern in the PAC and Atlantic, but the PNA ridge was pretty classic. This setup is way different. We have a PV where we really want to see ridging. My guess is whatever develops probably goes to our west but that is just a guess. Its purely model watching right now but the 6z still stays to our S&E but warm. Given the pattern it will likely be a rainer with only Fredneck getting a flake or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 what the 0Z giveth, the 6Z takes away 0z looked like a warm rain ending cold maybe a flake....6z looks like a cold rain for the duration no flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 0z looked like a warm rain ending cold maybe a flake....6z looks like a cold rain for the duration no flakes. out this way, looked to be more than just a few flakes, but it won't happen regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The changes to the GFS from 12z yesterday to 6z today for the time period about a week from yesterday are just amazing in our area. I don't see how any confidence can be placed in forecasts out to that time frame right now. Its forecast for this afternoon looks great though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I can't imagine there's a much better match to November 2011 than what is posted below. I don't know how the comparisons in other aspects might match up. The map from December of that year isn't a good looking map for us either. Things did improve in Jan and Feb, and IIRC, that Jan was the massive cold blast. November 2011 first, November 1984 second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Interesting. On the bright side, the weather turned cold in time for Christmas in 1984. Remember getting a significant sleet / ice storm on Christmas Eve day that year. Christmas Day offered sunny, windy, and very cold temps. The nearly 1-inch of rock solid, frozen sleet on the ground offered super-fast sledding that morning. Hoping for a similar outcome this year. Never mind. Got my years mixed up. The year of the Christmas sleet storm was 1983, not 1984. We're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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