Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The Euro is pretty much a bummer...but I guess we knew that.....looks like a pretty good cold dump next weekend, but it probably is pretty modified by the time it gets here and the dry type that lags a brief ok pattern and leads another bad one....Maybe -5-10 departures for 2-3 days....does that excite anyone?.....probably highs around 40 for DCA with lows in the upper 20s for a day or 2 then probably back to upper 40s/low 50s after that....I don't think we torch, but I think the 1st 15 days of December to me if I was making a guess would be in the +2 to +3 range as an average...with no snow..... yay me haven't thought as much about the 2nd half...I think it is a harder call...any guesses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 12z Euro is quite a bit more expansive with its precip shield tonight in the 12-18 hr graphic....suggests some -SN or flurries after some rain/sprinkles still maintains no moisture gets in here on Sunday except maybe well to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 haven't thought as much about the 2nd half...I think it is a harder call...any guesses? I think probably similar to the 1st half, maybe +1-2.5. Seems like all our "cold" shots are really near or slightly below normal, but the torches are +10-20. A couple days of +15 are really hard to overcome with a handful of -3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm not buying a snow machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 yay me haven't thought as much about the 2nd half...I think it is a harder call...any guesses? I would say probably the same as teh first part of the month.. no real heavy duty cold shots... I see a lot of 45-55 degree highs coming with lows in the 30-35 range. Might be a few cool shots here and there, but nothing excites me tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm not buying a snow machine. Let Midlo rent it out to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 9z SREFs are digging our Sunday car-topper. As in most of the members give us a little snow. in case no one could read that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 in case no one could read that Your reading skills have diminished since mapgirl18 was banned Mapgirl is suposed to have excellent vision and map-making skills/powers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yeah, I don't know why it did such small font there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 yay me haven't thought as much about the 2nd half...I think it is a harder call...any guesses? Just a hunch but I think the second half comes in with little if any departure. Couple things of interest: PNA has a stong + signal on ensembles. Potentially sustainable. AO is near neutral now and guidance is busting pretty high right now instead of low like it has been. Cold air is not far away. If the PNA really does hold for say 6-10 days them we could potentially have a pretty good stretch of -5 departures but not much colder than that. Long story short, I think the second half will be cooler than the first half but our snow chances remain equally crappy through the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I think probably similar to the 1st half, maybe +1-2.5. Seems like all our "cold" shots are really near or slightly below normal, but the torches are +10-20. A couple days of +15 are really hard to overcome with a handful of -3 days. I would say probably the same as teh first part of the month.. no real heavy duty cold shots... I see a lot of 45-55 degree highs coming with lows in the 30-35 range. Might be a few cool shots here and there, but nothing excites me tbh some low level cold air sometimes has a way of lingering around more, but I think given the pattern and the forecast for the next 7-10 days, I think we finish the month around +3 at DCA?.....I think the 25th-31st is kind of a wildcard...but even if we get a formidable PAC driven cold shot, our norms are pretty low by that point...I think the chances of getting a 4+ day regime of -5 to 10 departures is miniscule before the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 We had some sleet down here-- YAY! Second t of the season. (oct was the other) All rain now as the column moistened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I think the chances of getting a 4+ day regime of -5 to 10 departures is miniscule before the end of the month Agree. Probably 2 days in a row at most with the pattern as is. To get that duration, we need blocking in the Atlantic or some serious cross-polar flow. Neither one looks like it's going to happen anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Just a hunch but I think the second half comes in with little if any departure. Couple things of interest: PNA has a stong + signal on ensembles. Potentially sustainable. AO is near neutral now and guidance is busting pretty high right now instead of low like it has been. Cold air is not far away. If the PNA really does hold for say 6-10 days them we could potentially have a pretty good stretch of -5 departures but not much colder than that. Long story short, I think the second half will be cooler than the first half but our snow chances remain equally crappy through the end. I think it will be tough....we are starting off today with a +9....next week is still a bit aways but I would hedge toward us getting in the warm sector pretty good in the Wed/Thu range...and getting at least 2 days of +5 to +10 departures...it is hard to erase these with +2's and -1's we will need the final 7-10 days to perform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Your reading skills have diminished since mapgirl18 was banned Mapgirl is suposed to have excellent vision and map-making skills/powers That's why I said "no one" as in everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Agree. Probably 2 days in a row at most with the pattern as is. To get that duration, we need blocking in the Atlantic or some serious cross-polar flow. Neither one looks like it's going to happen anytime soon. Yeah, we are not really getting any help from either side. While as Bob Chill said, the ensembles have been showing a +PNA out in the med/long range.. i hesitate to buy it. Its probably going to be till at least Jan 5 IMO before we see any real meaningful changes (i.e. more serious cold as in highs in the 30s and lows 20-25) or even a 2"+ snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Just a hunch but I think the second half comes in with little if any departure. Couple things of interest: PNA has a stong + signal on ensembles. Potentially sustainable. AO is near neutral now and guidance is busting pretty high right now instead of low like it has been. Cold air is not far away. If the PNA really does hold for say 6-10 days them we could potentially have a pretty good stretch of -5 departures but not much colder than that. Long story short, I think the second half will be cooler than the first half but our snow chances remain equally crappy through the end. Cool enough for Dec to finish near 0 or still + but just not torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I think it will be tough....we are starting off today with a +9....next week is still a bit aways but I would hedge toward us getting in the warm sector pretty good in the Wed/Thu range...and getting at least 2 days of +5 to +10 departures...it is hard to erase these with +2's and -1's we will need the final 7-10 days to perform I think my post is confusing. I think the second half will come in with little departure but the month is likely locked up with a +5 or more unless something totally unexpected happens. Hard to say right now. If I had a gun to my head I would say we'll probably shave some off the current departure but who knows. One of the wildcards would in fact be a freak snow during the last week. Snowcover is probably the only way to put together a couple of days of -10 this month. I just don't see any mechanism to pull down the real cold stuff locked up in Canada any time in the next 10 days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This is a still a bit away, but the euro definitely keeps getting more interesting down the road....not just with the ridge out west which may or may not be that helpful with its positioning and with other factors countering it.....but it moves the big PV south and east and there is quite a bit of confluence over northern new england and southern Quebec with high pressure to our north and west...in this latest run it takes the form of a wave that mostly misses us to the south and east in the 23-24th timeframe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This is a still a bit away, but the euro definitely keeps getting more interesting down the road....not just with the ridge out west which may or may not be that helpful with its positioning and with other factors countering it.....but it moves the big PV south and east and there is quite a bit of confluence over northern new england and southern Quebec with high pressure to our north and west...in this latest run it takes the form of a wave that mostly misses us to the south and east in the 23-24th timeframe.... FWIW, GGEM looked a lil intriguing in the same time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 FWIW, GGEM looked a lil intriguing in the same time frame Oh, yoda....you do love the Canadian so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Oh, yoda....you do love the Canadian so much. Not really, but just thought I would mention it cause it does have a system/wave nearby us in the same time period that the EURO does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It makes sense that Christmas week is showing alot of different solutions. This pattern can't really flip so to speak. It has to break down in phases. There will probably be alot of tough to predict weather before a better and more stable pattern takes over in early-mid January. I have my fingers crossed that we actually do get into something more stable and favorable. If we get a volitile pattern in late dec / early jan that settles back into the +nao/ao crap we're seeing now then yikes. This board isn't going to be fun to visit for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 FWIW, GGEM looked a lil intriguing in the same time frame the pattern is still very progressive....we'd really have to time something pretty well...there is not a lot of cold air around.....we still don't know how it will play out, but I think we know our window of opportunity in the timeframe will be pretty narrow....it is still a bad pattern, so I think anything is still low probability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Oh, yoda....you do love the Canadian so much. after all, the Canadian model is better than NOGAPS. Ji needs to post the JAM to see what it is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This is a still a bit away, but the euro definitely keeps getting more interesting down the road....not just with the ridge out west which may or may not be that helpful with its positioning and with other factors countering it.....but it moves the big PV south and east and there is quite a bit of confluence over northern new england and southern Quebec with high pressure to our north and west...in this latest run it takes the form of a wave that mostly misses us to the south and east in the 23-24th timeframe.... I'll take that set up 1 week out gladly. The period from the 21st-30th definitely seems stormy one way or the other, so having a good source of cold air is the key to getting one of those storms to be snowy for us. That setup sounds good for that. GGEM also looks pretty good going into the Christmas weekend after the midweek cutter. Looks like it would try to phase northern and southern stream s/w's after the last panel at 144hr. Caveat is that we'd like the phasing to occur farther east. If the GGEM is right, that setup could lead to an Apps runner like the 12z GFS. Seems like perhaps the mid-week cutter will get in a good position near Newfoundland to serve as a quasi-50/50 and reinforce confluence over NE. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 the pattern is still very progressive....we'd really have to time something pretty well...there is not a lot of cold air around.....we still don't know how it will play out, but I think we know our window of opportunity in the timeframe will be pretty narrow....it is still a bad pattern, so I think anything is still low probability Agree. We would really need to thread the needle or have the system come in at night to really get anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Agree. We would really need to thread the needle or have the system come in at night to really get anything Looks like everyone is being sensible enough that I don't need to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Looks like everyone is being sensible enough that I don't need to post. I need a Wes "its going to snow" post I miss those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Agree. We would really need to thread the needle or have the system come in at night to really get anything it has come on like a flu in the last 48 hours and I am trying to control it but I am getting desperate...I will admit it....I am keeping it under control, but my meltdown threshold has been lowered.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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