H2O Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Just a hunch but I think the second half comes in with little if any departure. Couple things of interest: PNA has a stong + signal on ensembles. Potentially sustainable. AO is near neutral now and guidance is busting pretty high right now instead of low like it has been. Cold air is not far away. If the PNA really does hold for say 6-10 days them we could potentially have a pretty good stretch of -5 departures but not much colder than that. Long story short, I think the second half will be cooler than the first half but our snow chances remain equally crappy through the end. Cool enough for Dec to finish near 0 or still + but just not torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I think it will be tough....we are starting off today with a +9....next week is still a bit aways but I would hedge toward us getting in the warm sector pretty good in the Wed/Thu range...and getting at least 2 days of +5 to +10 departures...it is hard to erase these with +2's and -1's we will need the final 7-10 days to perform I think my post is confusing. I think the second half will come in with little departure but the month is likely locked up with a +5 or more unless something totally unexpected happens. Hard to say right now. If I had a gun to my head I would say we'll probably shave some off the current departure but who knows. One of the wildcards would in fact be a freak snow during the last week. Snowcover is probably the only way to put together a couple of days of -10 this month. I just don't see any mechanism to pull down the real cold stuff locked up in Canada any time in the next 10 days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This is a still a bit away, but the euro definitely keeps getting more interesting down the road....not just with the ridge out west which may or may not be that helpful with its positioning and with other factors countering it.....but it moves the big PV south and east and there is quite a bit of confluence over northern new england and southern Quebec with high pressure to our north and west...in this latest run it takes the form of a wave that mostly misses us to the south and east in the 23-24th timeframe.... FWIW, GGEM looked a lil intriguing in the same time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 FWIW, GGEM looked a lil intriguing in the same time frame Oh, yoda....you do love the Canadian so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Oh, yoda....you do love the Canadian so much. Not really, but just thought I would mention it cause it does have a system/wave nearby us in the same time period that the EURO does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It makes sense that Christmas week is showing alot of different solutions. This pattern can't really flip so to speak. It has to break down in phases. There will probably be alot of tough to predict weather before a better and more stable pattern takes over in early-mid January. I have my fingers crossed that we actually do get into something more stable and favorable. If we get a volitile pattern in late dec / early jan that settles back into the +nao/ao crap we're seeing now then yikes. This board isn't going to be fun to visit for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Oh, yoda....you do love the Canadian so much. after all, the Canadian model is better than NOGAPS. Ji needs to post the JAM to see what it is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This is a still a bit away, but the euro definitely keeps getting more interesting down the road....not just with the ridge out west which may or may not be that helpful with its positioning and with other factors countering it.....but it moves the big PV south and east and there is quite a bit of confluence over northern new england and southern Quebec with high pressure to our north and west...in this latest run it takes the form of a wave that mostly misses us to the south and east in the 23-24th timeframe.... I'll take that set up 1 week out gladly. The period from the 21st-30th definitely seems stormy one way or the other, so having a good source of cold air is the key to getting one of those storms to be snowy for us. That setup sounds good for that. GGEM also looks pretty good going into the Christmas weekend after the midweek cutter. Looks like it would try to phase northern and southern stream s/w's after the last panel at 144hr. Caveat is that we'd like the phasing to occur farther east. If the GGEM is right, that setup could lead to an Apps runner like the 12z GFS. Seems like perhaps the mid-week cutter will get in a good position near Newfoundland to serve as a quasi-50/50 and reinforce confluence over NE. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 the pattern is still very progressive....we'd really have to time something pretty well...there is not a lot of cold air around.....we still don't know how it will play out, but I think we know our window of opportunity in the timeframe will be pretty narrow....it is still a bad pattern, so I think anything is still low probability Agree. We would really need to thread the needle or have the system come in at night to really get anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Agree. We would really need to thread the needle or have the system come in at night to really get anything Looks like everyone is being sensible enough that I don't need to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Looks like everyone is being sensible enough that I don't need to post. I need a Wes "its going to snow" post I miss those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 mostly...I am getting desperate but keeping it together...I was out to dinner last night and sweating and when I went outside to get a breath of fresh air it was 63 degrees....and someone mentioned how nice it was and it just made me angrier.....Ji is in full meltdown mode and had a thread deleted last night, but I think most people are being very sensible....at least this weekend we may see a couple flakes and it will be crisp...so that will help since I think next week we might push 60 again on one of those days in the Tu-THU timeframe We're going to have a nasty day next week that will seal are fate for the second half of dec. I don't liek the look of the 240 hr Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 it has come on like a flu in the last 48 hours and I am trying to control it but I am getting desperate...I will admit it....I am keeping it under control, but my meltdown threshold has been lowered.... Interesting you have gone in that direction. Given all the wise ones and the pattern i have gotten used to the idea of no snow chances for the time being. I can't take most of these chances serious until we get out of these near impossible odds. If something does happen then it is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 the entire Conus is a torch.....I thought maybe it portended something better down the road...se ridge flattened a bit....maybe some minor ridging in the Atlantic, but I am getting a bit desperate... It is we go to a positive epo, wpo and nao. How's that for a trifacta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 imho or failure to see any real snow with the chances we've had is a bit uncanny, and that makes me seriously wonder if this is just one of those years but I do like the sun's activity really dropping like a rock if it stays that way, we still have time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 snow weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 We're going to have a nasty day next week that will seal are fate for the second half of dec. I don't liek the look of the 240 hr Euro. What are you seeing that makes this look so bad Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I've reached frustration. It just suddenly flipped. I went from patient to frustration literally overnight last night. When I was on the bus coming home and got off because I was sweating and it was too hot, I know something was wrong. I got off and walked the rest of the way home with no coat. It hit me like a ton of bricks. December seems like a floor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 sounds like you are getting frustrated too....Intellectually I should know better, but "It is only December 16th" does not have the same soothing effect as "It's only November 16th"....and I am pretty sure "It is only January 8th" will have no soothing effect at all if we are saying the same thing in 3 weeks....maybe I need a break for a few days I just reported this post....for your own good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 sounds like you are getting frustrated too....Intellectually I should know better, but "It is only December 16th" does not have the same soothing effect as "It's only November 16th"....and I am pretty sure "It is only January 8th" will have no soothing effect at all if we are saying the same thing in 3 weeks....maybe I need a break for a few days I'd be more frustrated if I thought the pattern was a good one and we were getting cheated but we really have not had any good chances. When your best chance is in late October, it is actually lol funny. I'm actually hoping for no snow until January. If we get to the middle of Jan and then have now snow, I might get frustrated but I'll be able to play golf which is a mitigating factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 about 1/3 of the last 30 decembers have had a trace or less snow. at least we're not missing much in terms of what to expect each year yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 What are you seeing that makes this look so bad Wes. All the flow across southern Canada and the low pressure to the lee of the Canadian rockies. The epo which I'm betting is positive and the nao which looks negative. That is not a pattern to get much cold air into the mid atlantic and when it comes, it leaves just as quickly. For you guys maybe it is not bad, for us guys, pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 All the flow across southern Canada and the low pressure to the lee of the Canadian rockies. The epo which I'm betting is positive and the nao which looks negative. That is not a pattern to get much cold air into the mid atlantic and when it comes, it leaves just as quickly. For you guys maybe it is not bad, for us guys, pretty bad. Yea I see that , hope is the Ens 11-15 is correct with the PNA push. There is some hope at least. We were all due for a stinker Dec if there is such a thing as due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 snow weenies! Coming from the guy who said he would be livid if he missed 20" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I just reported this post....for your own good Matt's post was fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Coming from the guy who said he would be livid if he missed 20" of snow i'd be livid if i missed one of the biggest meteorological events on record in any fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yea I see that , hope is the Ens 11-15 is correct with the PNA push. There is some hope at least. We were all due for a stinker Dec if there is such a thing as due. As Ian said, about a third of our December's are bad ones and this pattern has been a worse one than normal by quite a bit so I'm ready to start looking towards January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Matt's post was fine. I know, I was kidding "for your own good" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I posted this over in the Richmond thread, but I think it holds true for the wider Mid-Atlantic. Last winter, it was cold and snow threatened frequently (down here we even got a fair amount on Christmas Day night). The year before that the largest December storm on record for DC. Then, in October, a storm where the most frequent response was "if only it were December"... Recency bias is a real b**ch sometimes. Running +3.3* relative to normal... it feels considerably worse after last year's -7.1* departure and the prior year's -1.0*... The +15 and +20 days are just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 As Ian said, about a third of our December's are bad ones and this pattern has been a worse one than normal by quite a bit so I'm ready to start looking towards January. Our correlation up here between snowless Dec and terrible winters is very high and very concerning. Looking at an AO reinvigorating and a crappy Atlantic, not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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