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December 2011 General Disc/Obs


Ellinwood

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Oh please God yes...

Holy sh!t...just looked at the 6z GFS 240-300hr HECS. Now I need some tissues and a change of pants...it snows for 2 f-cking days straight! Who can I sell me soul to to make that happen?

You mean you just looked at it again? huh.png

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You mean you just looked at it again? huh.png

I only had seen that clown map that MNTransplant posted. Hadn't actually looked at the charts. It's even prettier when you see this massive 500mb closed low and a Miller A just slowly meander through the SE and up the coast in no particular hurry.

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I think he means he didn't look at the actual 240-300 hour panels -- he just saw the clown map posted by MN. wink.png

touche

I only had seen that clown map that MNTransplant posted. Hadn't actually looked at the charts. It's even prettier when you see this massive 500mb closed low and a Miller A just slowly meander through the SE and up the coast in no particular hurry.

Ahhh, sounds good :P

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I only had seen that clown map that MNTransplant posted. Hadn't actually looked at the charts. It's even prettier when you see this massive 500mb closed low and a Miller A just slowly meander through the SE and up the coast in no particular hurry.

I hear Wes is already writing a piece on it.

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I only had seen that clown map that MNTransplant posted. Hadn't actually looked at the charts. It's even prettier when you see this massive 500mb closed low and a Miller A just slowly meander through the SE and up the coast in no particular hurry.

Eye candy for sure but I looked at the panels. Hard to buy a slow moving miller a taking a favorable track with absolutely no blocking. 850's are really weird too. closed circulation keeps sub freezing temps but are everything north is above freezing. I know its total fantasy but this just looks weird.

Edit: I'm comparing apples to oranges. Wrong gfs run. I missed the 6z part.

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Eye candy for sure but I looked at the panels. Hard to buy a slow moving miller a taking a favorable track with absolutely no blocking. 850's are really weird too. closed circulation keeps sub freezing temps but are everything north is above freezing. I know its total fantasy but this just looks weird.

Edit: I'm comparing apples to oranges. Wrong gfs run. I missed the 6z part.

Seems as if the model is confused this far out. I've noticed this before.

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haven't thought as much about the 2nd half...I think it is a harder call...any guesses?

I think probably similar to the 1st half, maybe +1-2.5. Seems like all our "cold" shots are really near or slightly below normal, but the torches are +10-20. A couple days of +15 are really hard to overcome with a handful of -3 days.

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yay me

haven't thought as much about the 2nd half...I think it is a harder call...any guesses?

I would say probably the same as teh first part of the month.. no real heavy duty cold shots... I see a lot of 45-55 degree highs coming with lows in the 30-35 range. Might be a few cool shots here and there, but nothing excites me tbh

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yay me

haven't thought as much about the 2nd half...I think it is a harder call...any guesses?

Just a hunch but I think the second half comes in with little if any departure. Couple things of interest:

PNA has a stong + signal on ensembles. Potentially sustainable.

AO is near neutral now and guidance is busting pretty high right now instead of low like it has been.

Cold air is not far away.

If the PNA really does hold for say 6-10 days them we could potentially have a pretty good stretch of -5 departures but not much colder than that.

Long story short, I think the second half will be cooler than the first half but our snow chances remain equally crappy through the end.

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I think the chances of getting a 4+ day regime of -5 to 10 departures is miniscule before the end of the month

Agree. Probably 2 days in a row at most with the pattern as is. To get that duration, we need blocking in the Atlantic or some serious cross-polar flow. Neither one looks like it's going to happen anytime soon.

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Agree. Probably 2 days in a row at most with the pattern as is. To get that duration, we need blocking in the Atlantic or some serious cross-polar flow. Neither one looks like it's going to happen anytime soon.

Yeah, we are not really getting any help from either side. While as Bob Chill said, the ensembles have been showing a +PNA out in the med/long range.. i hesitate to buy it. Its probably going to be till at least Jan 5 IMO before we see any real meaningful changes (i.e. more serious cold as in highs in the 30s and lows 20-25) or even a 2"+ snowfall

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