mitchnick Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 fwiw, RGEM is a complete miss as to qpf and precip type in all of VA what I would give for another run of the RGEM with 40mm of snow imby..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Even with getting precip up here, the BL is still too warm. It would have to snow moderately/hard to get the last 1200 ft. cool. Flurries ain't going to cut it, omega's aren't impressive either. DCA: 6z/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 60 degrees @ 2AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Hi-res WRF-NMM simulated reflectivity keeps the precip shield about 20-30 miles south of DC... surface temps also too warm. 06z GFS provides some lolz for the 26th-28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Wind woke me up on more than one occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Tony Pann on WBAL this morning showed some snow dropping down into Northern MD Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Hi-res WRF-NMM simulated reflectivity keeps the precip shield about 20-30 miles south of DC... surface temps also too warm. 06z GFS provides some lolz for the 26th-28th. For posterity. You never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Oh please God yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Oh please God yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 For posterity. You never know. If it did that the day after Christmas, I think I'd be okay with the torch the rest of the winter. I think. But, only because I am a gardener and love fresh food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 For posterity. You never know. I will start believing in Santa again if it happens. Then again if all we get this season are teases like this then you may see me back again in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I will start believing in Santa again if it happens. Then again if all we get this season are teases like this then you may see me back again in March. Imagine Xmas day you are enjoying an adult beverage and ready to sit down for some roast beast and your wx radio starts beeping saying Winter Storm Warning and Bob Ryan twitters "this is the real deal"...imagine that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Oh cool, so we may have an opportunity to get screwed again on the one year anniversary? LOLOLOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Oh please God yes... I am away for the holidays so...book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 From the general mid-Atlantic page, your new icon startled me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 From the general mid-Atlantic page, your new icon startled me. The orange is a bit eye opening, I know. But it's the message that counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Tight gradient on 12z NAM for tonight. BWI nada, DCA pushing .1" (but its just south) EZF around 0.25" QPF. Sim radar from probably hrs 11-15 are our best chance for anything, be it rain or snow (8pm-midnight) Shows nada for LWX (besides the mts) for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Tight gradient on 12z NAM for tonight. BWI nada, DCA pushing .1" (but its just south) EZF around 0.25" QPF. Sim radar from probably hrs 11-15 are our best chance for anything, be it rain or snow (8pm-midnight) Shows nada for LWX (besides the mts) for Sunday Surface temps remain pretty warm so even if it were snow (doubtful but possible), it would not accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Surface temps remain pretty warm so even if it were snow (doubtful but possible), it would not accumulate. Agree. Still would be nice to see the snow if it did snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Looks like the 12z GFS nudged north some... but its behind the 12z NAM by a few hrs. NAM is done by midnight or so... GFS still has precip in the LWX area at 2 in the morning. 24 hr QPF shows BWI gets some flurries (0.01" QPF I guess) DCA is just inside the 0.10" QPF (very very close) and EZF is just north of the 0.25" QPF total http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Radar is way ahead of the nam and farther north. If there was a cold air mass and we could get easy accumulation and high ratios, this would be much more fun to track. Someone could have ended up with a couple inches around here. Right now this winter I can bet I'll see mostly sprinkles if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The orange is a bit eye opening, I know. But it's the message that counts I like the avatar but I've been praying for weeks with no results. Maybe I need to sacrifice some live chickens or something. Maybe I will this weekend. Worst case is no snow and fried chicken for dinner. I've been waiting forever to get rid of my lame snowflake sourpuss avatar for weeks but nothing is cooperating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 http://mag.ncep.noaa...5_700_rh_ht.gif Good enough I guess for tonight Flurries Sun morning GFS says as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 sunday's where it's at. cartop warnings may be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 sunday's where it's at. cartop warnings may be issued. Sound the alarm as early as you possibly can. I need time to prepare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Dew points are already quite low, and is a good indication that snow is possible. Precip rates are the key with the this system. Waiting for the 12z GFS soundings to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I like the avatar but I've been praying for weeks with no results. Maybe I need to sacrifice some live chickens or something. Maybe I will this weekend. Worst case is no snow and fried chicken for dinner. I've been waiting forever to get rid of my lame snowflake sourpuss avatar for weeks but nothing is cooperating. Instead of the weather controlling your avatar, maybe your avatar is controlling the weather? If you change it now, who knows what the rest of winter will be like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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