usedtobe Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Here's another article on SSW events and how they are twice as likely during el nino years than la nina years all things being equal. I would think the best combo would be easterly QBO with its deeper convection which would help with the brewer Dobson circulation. The easterly qbo and low solar would favor early. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3655.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Lucy...I mean the GFS...still has the football...I mean snowstorms...dangling right there just out of reach. But the long-range pattern looks absolutely horrid. Pac firehose, super positive AO and NAO. SE ridge that never goes back in the doghouse. Good thing it's been changing almost daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Lucy...I mean the GFS...still has the football...I mean snowstorms...dangling right there just out of reach. But the long-range pattern looks absolutely horrid. Pac firehose, super positive AO and NAO. SE ridge that never goes back in the doghouse. Good thing it's been changing almost daily. Insert am19psu's blowtorch image here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Thanfully the GFS ensemble mean looks much better pattern-wise in the long term. Has a very durable PNA ridge and consistent ridging from the Asian side up towards the pole and almost linking up with the PNA. That should keep the AO near neutral at least if that verified. NAO is still very positive, as the PV sits over Baffin Island the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 i think there will at least be some dustings around this weekend.. which is the event of the winter so far i guess. sunday may be preferred. could see a squall or two with that 500 energy shooting through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Is this even worth tracking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 euro still south with saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 euro still south with saturday Pretty good agreement with the GFS and NAM in keeping the north edge just south of DC. That's still farther north than yesterday's 12z, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Euro's down with Sunday morning flurries/dusting per Wunderground weenie maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I haven't peeked at the euro yet. I assume Sunday is nw flow 500 based energy? Squally stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It's basically just a vortmax in the flow, yes. Don't see much if any surface feature associated with it. Euro has it diving through WV and then down into VA, which is a very good track for us. As often with this type of feature, it's extremely moisture starved, so it's really just wringing out the paltry amount of moisture already present in the air mass. So, probably flurries intermixed with some (slightly) heavier snow showers that would give some of us a dusting. P.S. Tombo, in the Philly subforum, says the Euro has a coastal on/about Christmas but temps are probably an issue. Op GFS had something on at a similar time as did many of the GFS ensemble members. Seems like a wave develops in the SE along the stalled front that gets pulled through on next Thursday after the Lakes cutter. So, pray to Jesus and Santa on that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 i think there will at least be some dustings around this weekend.. which is the event of the winter so far i guess. sunday may be preferred. could see a squall or two with that 500 energy shooting through. you forgot the 1-8 inches we got in Oct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It's basically just a vortmax in the flow, yes. Don't see much if any surface feature associated with it. Euro has it diving through WV and then down into VA, which is a very good track for us. As often with this type of feature, it's extremely moisture starved, so it's really just wringing out the paltry amount of moisture already present in the air mass. So, probably flurries intermixed with some (slightly) heavier snow showers that would give some of us a dusting. P.S. Tombo, in the Philly subforum, says the Euro has a coastal on/about Christmas but temps are probably an issue. Op GFS had something on at a similar time as did many of the GFS ensemble members. Seems like a wave develops in the SE along the stalled front that gets pulled through on next Thursday after the Lakes cutter. So, pray to Jesus and Santa on that one... Is this a time where that SE ridge would be of some benefit in keeping a coastal that develops on a stalled front closer to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 P.S. Tombo, in the Philly subforum, says the Euro has a coastal on/about Christmas but temps are probably an issue. Op GFS had something on at a similar time as did many of the GFS ensemble members. Seems like a wave develops in the SE along the stalled front that gets pulled through on next Thursday after the Lakes cutter. So, pray to Jesus and Santa on that one... it's quite meh as is. hard time really calling it a coastal. temps are an issue and lack of precip is an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 you forgot the 1-8 inches we got in Oct that's not winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Is this a time where that SE ridge would be of some benefit in keeping a coastal that develops on a stalled front closer to the coast? Depends. Sometimes a closer storm means a warmer storm. In those situations, you take your 1-3" and let the bulk of the precip slide out to sea. it's quite meh as is. hard time really calling it a coastal. temps are an issue and lack of precip is an issue. Sounds like the GFS. Raleigh's site seems stuck at 168hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 its spitting outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 it's quite meh as is. hard time really calling it a coastal. temps are an issue and lack of precip is an issue. One thing I've noticed is that there has been alot of early consensus that a relatively sharp (but transient) trough moves through on or around Christmas. I've been seeing it in various forms for days. We'll have to see what evolves next week. It's a low probability scenario but having a low track to our west that brings through a fairly strong colfront and having some trailing energy ride up the front and along and/or off the coast isn't terribly uncommon. The lastest gfs isn't showing that type of evolution but it's been there in various forms with multiple models runs the last 5 days or so. I think the reality of it all is that Christmas doesn't look like it is going to be unusually warm. I can live with that snow or no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This may be a stupid question, but why would every single GFS ens. image (that I can see, I hear there are more) be much more expansive to the north with the precip tomorrow night than the operational? It is every single one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This may be a stupid question, but why would every single GFS ens. image (that I can see, I hear there are more) be much more expansive to the north with the precip tomorrow night than the operational? It is every single one. The Op has higher resolution than the ensemble members. That's done to save processing power and because the ensembles are more for confirmation and information about the broader longwave pattern than hitting the precip gradient on one storm. The ensemble mean generally outperforms the Op past day 3 or 4 and the Op does better inside that window. So, while it's hard to say with 100% confidence that's the reason, I'd put decent money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This may be a stupid question, but why would every single GFS ens. image (that I can see, I hear there are more) be much more expansive to the north with the precip tomorrow night than the operational? It is every single one. Because they are of lower resolution and dont correctly place the parameters and the precip field is more expansive on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Because they are of lower resolution and dont correctly place the parameters and the precip field is more expansive on the ensembles. good summary of the above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Thanks for the info guys. Informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 0z NAM is damn nice. I bet this thing will come in even farther north and give us rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 wow, 0Z NAM much further north I'm in Williamsburg so I should see some snow on the ground on the way back home by the time I leave Sat morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I like the looks of the nam for Sunday as well. Would make a nice snow fix if either or both events pan out, even if they're just light snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Looks like the 0.1 QPF line reaches DCA or just south... a good move north. Would be nice to see GFS do the same for the late Fri night "event". Sim radar looks good enough at 24 and 27 for some light snow or snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS no better than last run, but honestly it was south with the last storm til the last second, so take it FWIW, NAM could be on something, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS no better than last run, but honestly it was south with the last storm til the last second, so take it FWIW, NAM could be on something, but who knows. I think it was yesterday I posted that all the models jumped north the last storm w/in 48 hrs and we're seeing it again it's inevitable during NINA's thanks to the weak blocking that becomes more apparent to the models as the system nears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I think it was yesterday I posted that all the models jumped north the last storm w/in 48 hrs and we're seeing it again it's inevitable during NINA's thanks to the weak blocking that becomes more apparent to the models as the system nears In this instance, we'd win so let it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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