BristowWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It's basically just a vortmax in the flow, yes. Don't see much if any surface feature associated with it. Euro has it diving through WV and then down into VA, which is a very good track for us. As often with this type of feature, it's extremely moisture starved, so it's really just wringing out the paltry amount of moisture already present in the air mass. So, probably flurries intermixed with some (slightly) heavier snow showers that would give some of us a dusting. P.S. Tombo, in the Philly subforum, says the Euro has a coastal on/about Christmas but temps are probably an issue. Op GFS had something on at a similar time as did many of the GFS ensemble members. Seems like a wave develops in the SE along the stalled front that gets pulled through on next Thursday after the Lakes cutter. So, pray to Jesus and Santa on that one... Is this a time where that SE ridge would be of some benefit in keeping a coastal that develops on a stalled front closer to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 P.S. Tombo, in the Philly subforum, says the Euro has a coastal on/about Christmas but temps are probably an issue. Op GFS had something on at a similar time as did many of the GFS ensemble members. Seems like a wave develops in the SE along the stalled front that gets pulled through on next Thursday after the Lakes cutter. So, pray to Jesus and Santa on that one... it's quite meh as is. hard time really calling it a coastal. temps are an issue and lack of precip is an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 you forgot the 1-8 inches we got in Oct that's not winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Is this a time where that SE ridge would be of some benefit in keeping a coastal that develops on a stalled front closer to the coast? Depends. Sometimes a closer storm means a warmer storm. In those situations, you take your 1-3" and let the bulk of the precip slide out to sea. it's quite meh as is. hard time really calling it a coastal. temps are an issue and lack of precip is an issue. Sounds like the GFS. Raleigh's site seems stuck at 168hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 its spitting outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 it's quite meh as is. hard time really calling it a coastal. temps are an issue and lack of precip is an issue. One thing I've noticed is that there has been alot of early consensus that a relatively sharp (but transient) trough moves through on or around Christmas. I've been seeing it in various forms for days. We'll have to see what evolves next week. It's a low probability scenario but having a low track to our west that brings through a fairly strong colfront and having some trailing energy ride up the front and along and/or off the coast isn't terribly uncommon. The lastest gfs isn't showing that type of evolution but it's been there in various forms with multiple models runs the last 5 days or so. I think the reality of it all is that Christmas doesn't look like it is going to be unusually warm. I can live with that snow or no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This may be a stupid question, but why would every single GFS ens. image (that I can see, I hear there are more) be much more expansive to the north with the precip tomorrow night than the operational? It is every single one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This may be a stupid question, but why would every single GFS ens. image (that I can see, I hear there are more) be much more expansive to the north with the precip tomorrow night than the operational? It is every single one. The Op has higher resolution than the ensemble members. That's done to save processing power and because the ensembles are more for confirmation and information about the broader longwave pattern than hitting the precip gradient on one storm. The ensemble mean generally outperforms the Op past day 3 or 4 and the Op does better inside that window. So, while it's hard to say with 100% confidence that's the reason, I'd put decent money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 This may be a stupid question, but why would every single GFS ens. image (that I can see, I hear there are more) be much more expansive to the north with the precip tomorrow night than the operational? It is every single one. Because they are of lower resolution and dont correctly place the parameters and the precip field is more expansive on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Because they are of lower resolution and dont correctly place the parameters and the precip field is more expansive on the ensembles. good summary of the above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Thanks for the info guys. Informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 0z NAM is damn nice. I bet this thing will come in even farther north and give us rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 wow, 0Z NAM much further north I'm in Williamsburg so I should see some snow on the ground on the way back home by the time I leave Sat morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I like the looks of the nam for Sunday as well. Would make a nice snow fix if either or both events pan out, even if they're just light snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Looks like the 0.1 QPF line reaches DCA or just south... a good move north. Would be nice to see GFS do the same for the late Fri night "event". Sim radar looks good enough at 24 and 27 for some light snow or snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS no better than last run, but honestly it was south with the last storm til the last second, so take it FWIW, NAM could be on something, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS no better than last run, but honestly it was south with the last storm til the last second, so take it FWIW, NAM could be on something, but who knows. I think it was yesterday I posted that all the models jumped north the last storm w/in 48 hrs and we're seeing it again it's inevitable during NINA's thanks to the weak blocking that becomes more apparent to the models as the system nears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I think it was yesterday I posted that all the models jumped north the last storm w/in 48 hrs and we're seeing it again it's inevitable during NINA's thanks to the weak blocking that becomes more apparent to the models as the system nears In this instance, we'd win so let it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 fwiw, RGEM is a complete miss as to qpf and precip type in all of VA what I would give for another run of the RGEM with 40mm of snow imby..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Even with getting precip up here, the BL is still too warm. It would have to snow moderately/hard to get the last 1200 ft. cool. Flurries ain't going to cut it, omega's aren't impressive either. DCA: 6z/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 60 degrees @ 2AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Hi-res WRF-NMM simulated reflectivity keeps the precip shield about 20-30 miles south of DC... surface temps also too warm. 06z GFS provides some lolz for the 26th-28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Wind woke me up on more than one occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Tony Pann on WBAL this morning showed some snow dropping down into Northern MD Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Hi-res WRF-NMM simulated reflectivity keeps the precip shield about 20-30 miles south of DC... surface temps also too warm. 06z GFS provides some lolz for the 26th-28th. For posterity. You never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Oh please God yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Oh please God yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 For posterity. You never know. If it did that the day after Christmas, I think I'd be okay with the torch the rest of the winter. I think. But, only because I am a gardener and love fresh food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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