Riptide Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I know that we are only trying to be optimistic, but even if that inches north, does that really look like snow? Maybe just spit or sprinkles? I agree with this, here is what the GFS 18z profiles supported for Richmond, VA. Places further north have profiles that support snow if precip rates cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 the nam might just be playing games but the sys has some moisture it seems either way. if you can get good rates the northern end could probably be snow.. euro went south at 12z. i guess it's at least slightly compelling but need a lot in favor still. rather have precip in that spot at this range in most cases tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 00z GFS nudged south but QPF field nudged north. Sharp cutoff northern end... nothing BWI... few hundreths IAD.. about .10 at EZF. 0.25 in extreme S MD and eastern va area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 GFS overrunning possibility next week is looking better so far on the 0Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 well, didn't take but 4 minutes for the GFS to look unimpressive again for next week lol I guess anything is possible from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The winter of misery continues. To Oakland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The winter of misery continues. To Oakland! relatively speaking, it ain't any better out there this year http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=lwx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=55&map.y=47&site=LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The winter of misery continues. To Oakland! It's mid December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 the SE ridge isnt going anywhere it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Euro is still meh on the FRI night event....maybe a flizzard for some southern burbs? Euro ensemble mean sure doesn't like the euro solution for xmas. Even the euro looks like it has a weak low over the oh valley at 216 hrs and then brings in the cold air at least on the crude version so I have my doubts about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Was that JI smashing the Christmas decorations out of frustration in Fairfax?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 6z NAM and GFS keep all precip south of DC. 9z SREFs are a little more optimistic. 4 members give Baltimore snow on Friday night. 7 have some snow (but very little) for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 12z NAM QPF field nudged north again (I think.. re the 0.25" field) but sharp cutoff north of EZF. Most of this is early Sat morning, so unless you are up after midnight you won't see much if anything north of EZF. 42 hr sim radar shows meager returns over DCA, so flurries or maybe a light snow shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 12z NAM QPF field nudged north again (I think.. re the 0.25" field) but sharp cutoff north of EZF. Most of this is early Sat morning, so unless you are up after midnight you won't see much if anything north of EZF. 42 hr sim radar shows meager returns over DCA, so flurries or maybe a light snow shower I think that's about it but people seem to be snow starved and are looking for any fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I think that's about it but people seem to be snow starved and are looking for any fix. Yes we are Hey, flurries or a light snow shower are better than nothing. NAM didn't show anything for Sunday when I checked. So overnight Friday into early Saturday is our best chance for any white till likely Christmas-time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 12z GFS is faster and def a bit warmer than the 12z NAM IMO.... most of the precip is rain except for a few flurries on the northern end as the 0c 850 line is in C VA and most of the QPF is in S VA at 39. Well more like a whiff for anyone north of EZF and even there is pushing it for a flurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 12z GFS is faster and def a bit warmer than the 12z NAM IMO.... most of the precip is rain except for a few flurries on the northern end as the 0c 850 line is in C VA and most of the QPF is in S VA at 39. Well more like a whiff for anyone north of EZF and even there is pushing it for a flurry Even the NAM only has the surface temp at +3C at 06Z and a littel higher than that at 09Z so it's not even a sure thing that it would be snow on the colder model, it certainly wouldn't stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Even the NAM only has the surface temp at +3C at 06Z and a littel higher than that at 09Z so it's not even a sure thing that it would be snow on the colder model, it certainly wouldn't stick. True, I didn't check that. Still wouldn't even amount to much anyway, just would be nice to see a few snowflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Here's another article on SSW events and how they are twice as likely during el nino years than la nina years all things being equal. I would think the best combo would be easterly QBO with its deeper convection which would help with the brewer Dobson circulation. The easterly qbo and low solar would favor early. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3655.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Lucy...I mean the GFS...still has the football...I mean snowstorms...dangling right there just out of reach. But the long-range pattern looks absolutely horrid. Pac firehose, super positive AO and NAO. SE ridge that never goes back in the doghouse. Good thing it's been changing almost daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Lucy...I mean the GFS...still has the football...I mean snowstorms...dangling right there just out of reach. But the long-range pattern looks absolutely horrid. Pac firehose, super positive AO and NAO. SE ridge that never goes back in the doghouse. Good thing it's been changing almost daily. Insert am19psu's blowtorch image here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Thanfully the GFS ensemble mean looks much better pattern-wise in the long term. Has a very durable PNA ridge and consistent ridging from the Asian side up towards the pole and almost linking up with the PNA. That should keep the AO near neutral at least if that verified. NAO is still very positive, as the PV sits over Baffin Island the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 i think there will at least be some dustings around this weekend.. which is the event of the winter so far i guess. sunday may be preferred. could see a squall or two with that 500 energy shooting through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Is this even worth tracking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 euro still south with saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 euro still south with saturday Pretty good agreement with the GFS and NAM in keeping the north edge just south of DC. That's still farther north than yesterday's 12z, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Euro's down with Sunday morning flurries/dusting per Wunderground weenie maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I haven't peeked at the euro yet. I assume Sunday is nw flow 500 based energy? Squally stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It's basically just a vortmax in the flow, yes. Don't see much if any surface feature associated with it. Euro has it diving through WV and then down into VA, which is a very good track for us. As often with this type of feature, it's extremely moisture starved, so it's really just wringing out the paltry amount of moisture already present in the air mass. So, probably flurries intermixed with some (slightly) heavier snow showers that would give some of us a dusting. P.S. Tombo, in the Philly subforum, says the Euro has a coastal on/about Christmas but temps are probably an issue. Op GFS had something on at a similar time as did many of the GFS ensemble members. Seems like a wave develops in the SE along the stalled front that gets pulled through on next Thursday after the Lakes cutter. So, pray to Jesus and Santa on that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 i think there will at least be some dustings around this weekend.. which is the event of the winter so far i guess. sunday may be preferred. could see a squall or two with that 500 energy shooting through. you forgot the 1-8 inches we got in Oct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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