mappy Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 So, I guess it is safe to say I will not see flurries this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 So, I guess it is safe to say I will not see flurries this weekend Use the 0z GFS for verification, repeat until either the ensembles go back south or the operational goes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 So, I guess it is safe to say I will not see flurries this weekend Will be safe to say that by the 6z Monday GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 That phrase is pretty much owned by me. Please send a check for $100, thanks. meh, the only thing you own on this Board Randy are the headaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 That phrase is pretty much owned by me. Please send a check for $100, thanks. I already sent $60, does this mean you want another $40 from me?. I will send it if i can drive the bus for the next big storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Nam says gg, well played to mapgirl. It's a little suspicious how it amplifies along the coast, it's almost nearing 1/4" in some spots, pretty decent for a weak wave, not to say I actually take NAM QPF verbatim and next run will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Weenie goggles activated... but 00z NAM tosses us a bone from hrs 54 to 60. Sim radar at 54 looks somewhat interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Weenie goggles activated... but 00z NAM tosses us a bone from hrs 54 to 60. Sim radar at 54 looks somewhat interesting Tracking even fictitious snow is better than nothing. Do you have soundings for DCA for that time frame yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The NAM inches a little better. I find it interesting that of the GFS ensemble members that I can see, only the operational and 2 members didn't give my area measureable precip on Friday night. Two of them looked really juicy (comparatively). May mean nothing. We'll find out in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I know that we are only trying to be optimistic, but even if that inches north, does that really look like snow? Maybe just spit or sprinkles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I know that we are only trying to be optimistic, but even if that inches north, does that really look like snow? Maybe just spit or sprinkles? I agree with this, here is what the GFS 18z profiles supported for Richmond, VA. Places further north have profiles that support snow if precip rates cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 the nam might just be playing games but the sys has some moisture it seems either way. if you can get good rates the northern end could probably be snow.. euro went south at 12z. i guess it's at least slightly compelling but need a lot in favor still. rather have precip in that spot at this range in most cases tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 00z GFS nudged south but QPF field nudged north. Sharp cutoff northern end... nothing BWI... few hundreths IAD.. about .10 at EZF. 0.25 in extreme S MD and eastern va area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 GFS overrunning possibility next week is looking better so far on the 0Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 well, didn't take but 4 minutes for the GFS to look unimpressive again for next week lol I guess anything is possible from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The winter of misery continues. To Oakland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The winter of misery continues. To Oakland! relatively speaking, it ain't any better out there this year http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=lwx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=55&map.y=47&site=LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The winter of misery continues. To Oakland! It's mid December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 the SE ridge isnt going anywhere it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Euro is still meh on the FRI night event....maybe a flizzard for some southern burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 GFS overrunning possibility next week is looking better so far on the 0Z run euro is not bullish on that threat either...That is one way to get snow in a bad pattern...front ended into a stale rotting air mass before changing over....but I'm not sure next week is even good for that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Euro is still meh on the FRI night event....maybe a flizzard for some southern burbs? Euro ensemble mean sure doesn't like the euro solution for xmas. Even the euro looks like it has a weak low over the oh valley at 216 hrs and then brings in the cold air at least on the crude version so I have my doubts about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Was that JI smashing the Christmas decorations out of frustration in Fairfax?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 6z NAM and GFS keep all precip south of DC. 9z SREFs are a little more optimistic. 4 members give Baltimore snow on Friday night. 7 have some snow (but very little) for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 12z NAM QPF field nudged north again (I think.. re the 0.25" field) but sharp cutoff north of EZF. Most of this is early Sat morning, so unless you are up after midnight you won't see much if anything north of EZF. 42 hr sim radar shows meager returns over DCA, so flurries or maybe a light snow shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 12z NAM QPF field nudged north again (I think.. re the 0.25" field) but sharp cutoff north of EZF. Most of this is early Sat morning, so unless you are up after midnight you won't see much if anything north of EZF. 42 hr sim radar shows meager returns over DCA, so flurries or maybe a light snow shower I think that's about it but people seem to be snow starved and are looking for any fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I think that's about it but people seem to be snow starved and are looking for any fix. Yes we are Hey, flurries or a light snow shower are better than nothing. NAM didn't show anything for Sunday when I checked. So overnight Friday into early Saturday is our best chance for any white till likely Christmas-time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 12z GFS is faster and def a bit warmer than the 12z NAM IMO.... most of the precip is rain except for a few flurries on the northern end as the 0c 850 line is in C VA and most of the QPF is in S VA at 39. Well more like a whiff for anyone north of EZF and even there is pushing it for a flurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 12z GFS is faster and def a bit warmer than the 12z NAM IMO.... most of the precip is rain except for a few flurries on the northern end as the 0c 850 line is in C VA and most of the QPF is in S VA at 39. Well more like a whiff for anyone north of EZF and even there is pushing it for a flurry Even the NAM only has the surface temp at +3C at 06Z and a littel higher than that at 09Z so it's not even a sure thing that it would be snow on the colder model, it certainly wouldn't stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Even the NAM only has the surface temp at +3C at 06Z and a littel higher than that at 09Z so it's not even a sure thing that it would be snow on the colder model, it certainly wouldn't stick. True, I didn't check that. Still wouldn't even amount to much anyway, just would be nice to see a few snowflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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