WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Oh GFS...you're such a little tease Pops a Nor'easter along the cold front overnight on the 23rd into the 24th... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12228.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12240.gif But basically has no deformation zone, so no precip gets back to our area. This looks somewhat like some of those more exciting ensemble members from yesterday. Will be interesting to see if the Euro or ensembles support this at all. Boxing Day 2010 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean does it. Threads the needle with strength of the low and amount of confluence to bring the 0.1" precip contour up to roughly a IAD-BWI line. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12072.gif This is about as good as it's going to get with this set up, so let's lock it in, shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean does it. Threads the needle with strength of the low and amount of confluence to bring the 0.1" precip contour up to roughly a IAD-BWI line. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12072.gif This is about as good as it's going to get with this set up, so let's lock it in, shall we? bah humbug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 bah humbug! ? If you don't like snow, this might not be the wx board for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 ? If you don't like snow, this might not be the wx board for you. Given where mapgirl lives, a line up to BWI probably wouldn't get it done for her, I think that's what she is "bah humbugging" to. She likes the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Gotcha...I thought she liked snow... Anyway...most of the individual members are more amped with this storm and most get SOME precip to the Mason-Dixon. To my eye, only 2 of the members are weaker than the Op and 2 are quite similar to the Op. The rest throw more precip up our way. And yes...it's snow. Interestingly, most of the individual members are also a bit more amped with precip for the 2nd vortmax to swing through on Sunday and give our area some more snow showers/flurries. As for the storm next Wed/Thurs, seems like solutions are all over the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Gotcha...I thought she liked snow... Anyway...most of the individual members are more amped with this storm and most get SOME precip to the Mason-Dixon. To my eye, only 2 of the members are weaker than the Op and 2 are quite similar to the Op. The rest throw more precip up our way. And yes...it's snow. Interestingly, most of the individual members are also a bit more amped with precip for the 2nd vortmax to swing through on Sunday and give our area some more snow showers/flurries. As for the storm next Wed/Thurs, seems like solutions are all over the map. The ensemble mean looks good... I will lock in an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Don't see much gfs chatter so I figured I toss out what I kinda like. Weekend holds some slim hope. Got a decent thermal profile with no precip to speak of. Will the n trend that has been scewing us actually save us this time? Probably not but if enough precip does shift north at least the column looks good for snow (correct me if I'm wrong on this because I'm not sure) Chilly Christmas still on tap after what appears to be a brush with some rain Christmas eve. Something to at least keep half an eyeball too. Shift the trough axis east a little and amp it up a little and the storm could bring a little light snow because 850's are cold enough. 500 vorticity from 216-240 looks interesting. Not great but worth watching. End of the run FINALLY shows some real ridging over part of Greenland. Strong NAO forecast for a few days leading up to new years. Not an optimal ridge placement but good grief its been a while since I've seen a decent -nao forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean does it. Threads the needle with strength of the low and amount of confluence to bring the 0.1" precip contour up to roughly a IAD-BWI line. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12072.gif This is about as good as it's going to get with this set up, so let's lock it in, shall we? Ens. mean even looks to get some snow down to me this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 as much as I would like it to snow, I hate relying on ensemble means otoh, every storm has shifted north in the final 48 hours this fall/winter, so it's possible I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 as much as I would like it to snow, I hate relying on ensemble means otoh, every storm has shifted north in the final 48 hours this fall/winter, so it's possible I suppose http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf060.html I'd expect the 18z or 0z GFS to come north based on these ensembles. After reading AFD's from the area, the NWS doesn't seem confident that the temperature profile supports snow, or perhaps they believe precip rates will be too light. There is no snow anywhere on the forecast grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 as much as I would like it to snow, I hate relying on ensemble means otoh, every storm has shifted north in the final 48 hours this fall/winter, so it's possible I suppose We will get a trace do not worry, we will now have 2 traces for the winter snowfall total. For our area we are way ahead of average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 It looks like a few of the 15z SREFs came north some with the SREF mean showing some QPF of 0.1+" or greater across the LWX area. This is a 12hr QPF map mind you.. but it does look better than the 09z SREF one did -- http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Thanks, Yoda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 last of december 7th snow melted today except roof slide and shovel pile. this is the best time of year for lasting snow on north facing properties like mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Thanks, Yoda! I am trying to be a better weather poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf060.html I'd expect the 18z or 0z GFS to come north based on these ensembles. After reading AFD's from the area, the NWS doesn't seem confident that the temperature profile supports snow, or perhaps they believe precip rates will be too light. There is no snow anywhere on the forecast grid. I wasn't confident with last night's runs showing snow where it had precip either, based on surface temps and thicknesses but until the op models start to show qpf in mby, this is more "practice" than anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Further north on the 18z NAM. Still weak and with very marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 as much as I would like it to snow, I hate relying on ensemble means otoh, every storm has shifted north in the final 48 hours this fall/winter, so it's possible I suppose Is this even a storm? But, yeah, I'm with you. We haven't been missed to the south by much, if any, precip in quite a while. And, as MNTransplant just posted, NAM takes a pretty good jump north. You never know. If we do miss a chance for light snow because of lack of precip, not lack of cold, it will feel like a true Nina winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I am trying to be a better weather poster Oh, sorry, I meant for explaining my earlier post while I was not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Is this even a storm? But, yeah, I'm with you. We haven't been missed to the south by much, if any, precip in quite a while. And, as MNTransplant just posted, NAM takes a pretty good jump north. You never know. If we do miss a chance for light snow because of lack of precip, not lack of cold, it will feel like a true Nina winter. I may not miss it to the south I'm in Williamsburg tomorrow morning and returning Sat morning maybe I just might see some snow on the way home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Oh, sorry, I meant for explaining my earlier post while I was not here. I thought that was me??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I thought that was me??? OMG it was! I'm sorry Thank YOU .... your thanks have been revoked, Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 OMG it was! I'm sorry Thank YOU .... your thanks have been revoked, Yoda. Hurtyhurtyz I wonder if the 18z GFS will continue the trend and nudge a bit further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Hurtyhurtyz I wonder if the 18z GFS will continue the trend and nudge a bit further north The 18z GFS will be telling . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The 18z GFS will be telling . And the fact that nobody posted it is also telling... (NAM-like on the northern periphery) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 49 degrees at 6PM is quite telling too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 And the fact that nobody posted it is also telling... (NAM-like on the northern periphery) The 0.01" contour is not quite as far north, but the 0.25" and 0.1" areas both took a fair jump northward. 18z ensemble mean also is a bit better in total precip vs. 12z mean. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep24072.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep24084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The 18z GFS will be telling . That phrase is pretty much owned by me. Please send a check for $100, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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