Riptide Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 as much as I would like it to snow, I hate relying on ensemble means otoh, every storm has shifted north in the final 48 hours this fall/winter, so it's possible I suppose http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf060.html I'd expect the 18z or 0z GFS to come north based on these ensembles. After reading AFD's from the area, the NWS doesn't seem confident that the temperature profile supports snow, or perhaps they believe precip rates will be too light. There is no snow anywhere on the forecast grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 as much as I would like it to snow, I hate relying on ensemble means otoh, every storm has shifted north in the final 48 hours this fall/winter, so it's possible I suppose We will get a trace do not worry, we will now have 2 traces for the winter snowfall total. For our area we are way ahead of average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 It looks like a few of the 15z SREFs came north some with the SREF mean showing some QPF of 0.1+" or greater across the LWX area. This is a 12hr QPF map mind you.. but it does look better than the 09z SREF one did -- http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Thanks, Yoda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 last of december 7th snow melted today except roof slide and shovel pile. this is the best time of year for lasting snow on north facing properties like mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Thanks, Yoda! I am trying to be a better weather poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf060.html I'd expect the 18z or 0z GFS to come north based on these ensembles. After reading AFD's from the area, the NWS doesn't seem confident that the temperature profile supports snow, or perhaps they believe precip rates will be too light. There is no snow anywhere on the forecast grid. I wasn't confident with last night's runs showing snow where it had precip either, based on surface temps and thicknesses but until the op models start to show qpf in mby, this is more "practice" than anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Further north on the 18z NAM. Still weak and with very marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 as much as I would like it to snow, I hate relying on ensemble means otoh, every storm has shifted north in the final 48 hours this fall/winter, so it's possible I suppose Is this even a storm? But, yeah, I'm with you. We haven't been missed to the south by much, if any, precip in quite a while. And, as MNTransplant just posted, NAM takes a pretty good jump north. You never know. If we do miss a chance for light snow because of lack of precip, not lack of cold, it will feel like a true Nina winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I am trying to be a better weather poster Oh, sorry, I meant for explaining my earlier post while I was not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Is this even a storm? But, yeah, I'm with you. We haven't been missed to the south by much, if any, precip in quite a while. And, as MNTransplant just posted, NAM takes a pretty good jump north. You never know. If we do miss a chance for light snow because of lack of precip, not lack of cold, it will feel like a true Nina winter. I may not miss it to the south I'm in Williamsburg tomorrow morning and returning Sat morning maybe I just might see some snow on the way home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Oh, sorry, I meant for explaining my earlier post while I was not here. I thought that was me??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I thought that was me??? OMG it was! I'm sorry Thank YOU .... your thanks have been revoked, Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 OMG it was! I'm sorry Thank YOU .... your thanks have been revoked, Yoda. Hurtyhurtyz I wonder if the 18z GFS will continue the trend and nudge a bit further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Hurtyhurtyz I wonder if the 18z GFS will continue the trend and nudge a bit further north The 18z GFS will be telling . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The 18z GFS will be telling . And the fact that nobody posted it is also telling... (NAM-like on the northern periphery) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 49 degrees at 6PM is quite telling too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 And the fact that nobody posted it is also telling... (NAM-like on the northern periphery) The 0.01" contour is not quite as far north, but the 0.25" and 0.1" areas both took a fair jump northward. 18z ensemble mean also is a bit better in total precip vs. 12z mean. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep24072.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep24084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The 18z GFS will be telling . That phrase is pretty much owned by me. Please send a check for $100, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 So, I guess it is safe to say I will not see flurries this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 So, I guess it is safe to say I will not see flurries this weekend Use the 0z GFS for verification, repeat until either the ensembles go back south or the operational goes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 So, I guess it is safe to say I will not see flurries this weekend Will be safe to say that by the 6z Monday GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 That phrase is pretty much owned by me. Please send a check for $100, thanks. meh, the only thing you own on this Board Randy are the headaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 That phrase is pretty much owned by me. Please send a check for $100, thanks. I already sent $60, does this mean you want another $40 from me?. I will send it if i can drive the bus for the next big storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Nam says gg, well played to mapgirl. It's a little suspicious how it amplifies along the coast, it's almost nearing 1/4" in some spots, pretty decent for a weak wave, not to say I actually take NAM QPF verbatim and next run will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Weenie goggles activated... but 00z NAM tosses us a bone from hrs 54 to 60. Sim radar at 54 looks somewhat interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Weenie goggles activated... but 00z NAM tosses us a bone from hrs 54 to 60. Sim radar at 54 looks somewhat interesting Tracking even fictitious snow is better than nothing. Do you have soundings for DCA for that time frame yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The NAM inches a little better. I find it interesting that of the GFS ensemble members that I can see, only the operational and 2 members didn't give my area measureable precip on Friday night. Two of them looked really juicy (comparatively). May mean nothing. We'll find out in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I know that we are only trying to be optimistic, but even if that inches north, does that really look like snow? Maybe just spit or sprinkles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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