WVclimo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Its 72+ hours away. Pretty sure it can come north from this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Its 72+ hours away. Pretty sure it can come north from this time frame. That's the spirit. I'm in with ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 A couple of our mets today have been discussing the possible light snow/flurry situation for Fri night. The NAM just took a big jump with the precip to our south for that time period. Have no idea if it could bring it even further north, but anyway ........... don't forget we're still talking about this winter (so far) 850 maps alone are gonna' fail us w/o a peak at the surface temps too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F14%2F2011+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=078&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I think that would be the top end possibility. Some pixie dust for someone. In a Nina these events usually get washed out and very little moisture makes it into the cold sector. Agree, but this years precip events don't seem to be following a typical Nina. I guess it's that pumped up ridge, but it seems every precip event has been heavy and rolling right through here. It would make perfect sense though to finally get some cooperating temps only to see the precip squashed underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 A couple of our mets today have been discussing the possible light snow/flurry situation for Fri night. The NAM just took a big jump with the precip to our south for that time period. Have no idea if it could bring it even further north, but anyway ........... This little wave is a double edged sword, the whole positioning of the front on Thursday when it lays itself down. The surface wave is going to go right south of that front. So if the front lays itself to the south then were cold and mostly cloudy. If it's north, you've temperature issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 don't forget we're still talking about this winter (so far) 850 maps alone are gonna' fail us w/o a peak at the surface temps too http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Yes, but that map would put me below freezing and you right at it. I would think that would yield snow. Maybe not accumulations, but at least snow. Probably a waste of time anyway, precip has a long way to go to get to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Yes, but that map would put me below freezing and you right at it. I would think that would yield snow. Maybe not accumulations, but at least snow. Probably a waste of time anyway, precip has a long way to go to get to us. meh, I hate playing the "doubter" role here (although I get to know how Wes feels!), but thicknesses are above 540 as well, sooooo http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F14%2F2011+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=078&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 This little wave is a double edged sword, the whole positioning of the front on Thursday when it lays itself down. The surface wave is going to go right south of that front. So if the front lays itself to the south then were cold and mostly cloudy. If it's north, you've temperature issues. Couldn't a stronger wave also ride south of that front and also throw some precip further into the cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 meh, I hate playing the "doubter" role here (although I get to know how Wes feels!), but thicknesses are above 540 as well, sooooo http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Oh, I doubt it too, Mitch. I don't have any real hopes for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Couldn't a stronger wave also ride south of that front and also throw some precip further into the cold air? Very hard to do in this situation, the upper level forcing to generate such lift it deeply imbedded in zonal flow between the SE ridge and the passing s/w in Ontario. If it did try to amplify it would simply be sheared apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Potential CAD scenario on GFS near 126hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 been stuck at 30 degrees since the strato deck moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 06z NAM says "mmmmmmmmaybe" for some snow showers Fri night/Sat morning, bringing the 540 line down to DC as precip rolls through. 06z GFS more suppressed to the south and a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 06z NAM says "mmmmmmmmaybe" for some snow showers Fri night/Sat morning, bringing the 540 line down to DC as precip rolls through. 06z GFS more suppressed to the south and a bit warmer. The edge of the precip field goes from Richmond @ 00 to DC @ 06 which is a 100 mile jump. North trend anyone? Hard to get excited about the NAM though until it gets within 36 to 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 0z Euro ensemble mean looks pretty good at Day 10. Big +PNA ridge, split flow and rising heights over the pole (but still probably a +AO). NAO is ragingly positive, but we can still get cold air with a +NAO. Having such a potent PNA ridge on a Day 10 ensemble mean is a pretty strong signal. 0z Euro Op is also advertising the +PNA, but has the AO and NAO more positive than the ensemble mean. 6z GFS ensemble mean looks a lot like the Euro ensemble mean at Day 10, but then the GFS breaks down the PNA ridge afterwards and restrengthens the AO. Given the apparent signals that the AO should be weakening, we'll see if that becomes a persistent signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z NAM says no... suppresses it into S VA and N NC... most precip is south of the 0c 850 line in S VA. But there is a nice sized area of 0.25-0.50 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 9z SREFs mostly don't even get much precip to RIC. One member gives RIC 0.18" (liquid) of snow and then another has a little rain and that's it. 3z had 2 members giving RIC a fair amount of sleet and a couple members with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GFS seems a bit more interesting... though through 63 lacking on precip. 850 line is south of DC toward the RIC area... precip field is a bit more expansive than the 12z NAM with measurable precip (i.e. .01") reaching the DC area... so perhaps a few flurries DC south. Most of the precip is down in N NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 GFS has the confluence over the NE just a smidge weaker, which allows the precip to get to DC. Need some more work to make this happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 GFS has the confluence over the NE just a smidge weaker, which allows the precip to get to DC. Need some more work to make this happen. Hopefully just a little work, at this point i would be thrilled to see a dusting out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Oh GFS...you're such a little tease Pops a Nor'easter along the cold front overnight on the 23rd into the 24th... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12228.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12240.gif But basically has no deformation zone, so no precip gets back to our area. This looks somewhat like some of those more exciting ensemble members from yesterday. Will be interesting to see if the Euro or ensembles support this at all. Boxing Day 2010 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean does it. Threads the needle with strength of the low and amount of confluence to bring the 0.1" precip contour up to roughly a IAD-BWI line. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12072.gif This is about as good as it's going to get with this set up, so let's lock it in, shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean does it. Threads the needle with strength of the low and amount of confluence to bring the 0.1" precip contour up to roughly a IAD-BWI line. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12072.gif This is about as good as it's going to get with this set up, so let's lock it in, shall we? bah humbug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 bah humbug! ? If you don't like snow, this might not be the wx board for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 ? If you don't like snow, this might not be the wx board for you. Given where mapgirl lives, a line up to BWI probably wouldn't get it done for her, I think that's what she is "bah humbugging" to. She likes the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Gotcha...I thought she liked snow... Anyway...most of the individual members are more amped with this storm and most get SOME precip to the Mason-Dixon. To my eye, only 2 of the members are weaker than the Op and 2 are quite similar to the Op. The rest throw more precip up our way. And yes...it's snow. Interestingly, most of the individual members are also a bit more amped with precip for the 2nd vortmax to swing through on Sunday and give our area some more snow showers/flurries. As for the storm next Wed/Thurs, seems like solutions are all over the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Gotcha...I thought she liked snow... Anyway...most of the individual members are more amped with this storm and most get SOME precip to the Mason-Dixon. To my eye, only 2 of the members are weaker than the Op and 2 are quite similar to the Op. The rest throw more precip up our way. And yes...it's snow. Interestingly, most of the individual members are also a bit more amped with precip for the 2nd vortmax to swing through on Sunday and give our area some more snow showers/flurries. As for the storm next Wed/Thurs, seems like solutions are all over the map. The ensemble mean looks good... I will lock in an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Don't see much gfs chatter so I figured I toss out what I kinda like. Weekend holds some slim hope. Got a decent thermal profile with no precip to speak of. Will the n trend that has been scewing us actually save us this time? Probably not but if enough precip does shift north at least the column looks good for snow (correct me if I'm wrong on this because I'm not sure) Chilly Christmas still on tap after what appears to be a brush with some rain Christmas eve. Something to at least keep half an eyeball too. Shift the trough axis east a little and amp it up a little and the storm could bring a little light snow because 850's are cold enough. 500 vorticity from 216-240 looks interesting. Not great but worth watching. End of the run FINALLY shows some real ridging over part of Greenland. Strong NAO forecast for a few days leading up to new years. Not an optimal ridge placement but good grief its been a while since I've seen a decent -nao forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean does it. Threads the needle with strength of the low and amount of confluence to bring the 0.1" precip contour up to roughly a IAD-BWI line. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12072.gif This is about as good as it's going to get with this set up, so let's lock it in, shall we? Ens. mean even looks to get some snow down to me this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 as much as I would like it to snow, I hate relying on ensemble means otoh, every storm has shifted north in the final 48 hours this fall/winter, so it's possible I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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