Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Forgive my lack of knowledge, but ideally we want the MJO phase to be at 8 or 1? Progressing from 8-2 is the best for a cold east. Stronger signal is better than being near the circle of death. I don't know much about the mechanics though. I use this site but there are probably other better ones: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I just looked at today's euro and I am not impressed with the next 10 days, but getting a +PNA is certainly better than what we had....it is going to be pretty hard to get a proper storm track with an antecedent cold air mass in place without threading the needle or getting a cutoff or closed low That's how I see it. I'm not sure why everyone is jumping onto a minor ssw event and then miraculously think it has had any impact on the troposphere. Ridging over AK is not as unusual when the AO is positive as blocking over Greenland. and look at the snow differences when the northern Anuular mode is positive versus negative I thought this table from the U of Washington website is pretty good. http://www.jisao.washington.edu/wallace/ncar_notes/#4Signatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Progressing from 8-2 is the best for a cold east. Stronger signal is better than being near the circle of death. I don't know much about the mechanics though. I use this site but there are probably other better ones: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ Thanks, Bob. I always thought 7/8 was best. I will add that to my bookmarks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 18z gfs likes the idea of lakes cutters and a chilly christmas after some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 18z gfs likes the idea of lakes cutters and a chilly christmas after some rain. It's a nasty run as it loses the ridging over Ak in the longer range and actually puts a trough there. The only good news abut the run is it will probalby be different in 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 That's the frustrating part of not having a meaningful change in the bigger features in the pattern. Hanging on to hope that a best case scenario happens in a crappy pattern comes with inherent low probability outcomes. Chilly christmas is cool though. There seems to be some sort of consensus that a decent shot of cold hits the east during the general timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 That's the frustrating part of not having a meaningful change in the bigger features in the pattern. Hanging on to hope that a best case scenario happens in a crappy pattern comes with inherent low probability outcomes. Chilly christmas is cool though. There seems to be some sort of consensus that a decent shot of cold hits the east during the general timeframe. As much as I want a white Xmas having it be cold is fine too. Better than 60F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 As much as I want a white Xmas having it be cold is fine too. Better than 60F This run looks just barely cold and the sad thing is THIS run at 18z over 10 days prior to Xmas will probably verify. I can see the forecast already Xmas eve: Showers ending partial clearing by midnight...windy...low 37F Xmas day: Mostly sunny...windy...high 45F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 A couple of our mets today have been discussing the possible light snow/flurry situation for Fri night. The NAM just took a big jump with the precip to our south for that time period. Have no idea if it could bring it even further north, but anyway ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Its 72+ hours away. Pretty sure it can come north from this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Its 72+ hours away. Pretty sure it can come north from this time frame. That's the spirit. I'm in with ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 A couple of our mets today have been discussing the possible light snow/flurry situation for Fri night. The NAM just took a big jump with the precip to our south for that time period. Have no idea if it could bring it even further north, but anyway ........... I think that would be the top end possibility. Some pixie dust for someone. In a Nina these events usually get washed out and very little moisture makes it into the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 A couple of our mets today have been discussing the possible light snow/flurry situation for Fri night. The NAM just took a big jump with the precip to our south for that time period. Have no idea if it could bring it even further north, but anyway ........... don't forget we're still talking about this winter (so far) 850 maps alone are gonna' fail us w/o a peak at the surface temps too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F14%2F2011+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=078&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I think that would be the top end possibility. Some pixie dust for someone. In a Nina these events usually get washed out and very little moisture makes it into the cold sector. Agree, but this years precip events don't seem to be following a typical Nina. I guess it's that pumped up ridge, but it seems every precip event has been heavy and rolling right through here. It would make perfect sense though to finally get some cooperating temps only to see the precip squashed underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 A couple of our mets today have been discussing the possible light snow/flurry situation for Fri night. The NAM just took a big jump with the precip to our south for that time period. Have no idea if it could bring it even further north, but anyway ........... This little wave is a double edged sword, the whole positioning of the front on Thursday when it lays itself down. The surface wave is going to go right south of that front. So if the front lays itself to the south then were cold and mostly cloudy. If it's north, you've temperature issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 don't forget we're still talking about this winter (so far) 850 maps alone are gonna' fail us w/o a peak at the surface temps too http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Yes, but that map would put me below freezing and you right at it. I would think that would yield snow. Maybe not accumulations, but at least snow. Probably a waste of time anyway, precip has a long way to go to get to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Yes, but that map would put me below freezing and you right at it. I would think that would yield snow. Maybe not accumulations, but at least snow. Probably a waste of time anyway, precip has a long way to go to get to us. meh, I hate playing the "doubter" role here (although I get to know how Wes feels!), but thicknesses are above 540 as well, sooooo http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F14%2F2011+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=078&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 This little wave is a double edged sword, the whole positioning of the front on Thursday when it lays itself down. The surface wave is going to go right south of that front. So if the front lays itself to the south then were cold and mostly cloudy. If it's north, you've temperature issues. Couldn't a stronger wave also ride south of that front and also throw some precip further into the cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 meh, I hate playing the "doubter" role here (although I get to know how Wes feels!), but thicknesses are above 540 as well, sooooo http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Oh, I doubt it too, Mitch. I don't have any real hopes for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Couldn't a stronger wave also ride south of that front and also throw some precip further into the cold air? Very hard to do in this situation, the upper level forcing to generate such lift it deeply imbedded in zonal flow between the SE ridge and the passing s/w in Ontario. If it did try to amplify it would simply be sheared apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Potential CAD scenario on GFS near 126hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 been stuck at 30 degrees since the strato deck moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 06z NAM says "mmmmmmmmaybe" for some snow showers Fri night/Sat morning, bringing the 540 line down to DC as precip rolls through. 06z GFS more suppressed to the south and a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 06z NAM says "mmmmmmmmaybe" for some snow showers Fri night/Sat morning, bringing the 540 line down to DC as precip rolls through. 06z GFS more suppressed to the south and a bit warmer. The edge of the precip field goes from Richmond @ 00 to DC @ 06 which is a 100 mile jump. North trend anyone? Hard to get excited about the NAM though until it gets within 36 to 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 0z Euro ensemble mean looks pretty good at Day 10. Big +PNA ridge, split flow and rising heights over the pole (but still probably a +AO). NAO is ragingly positive, but we can still get cold air with a +NAO. Having such a potent PNA ridge on a Day 10 ensemble mean is a pretty strong signal. 0z Euro Op is also advertising the +PNA, but has the AO and NAO more positive than the ensemble mean. 6z GFS ensemble mean looks a lot like the Euro ensemble mean at Day 10, but then the GFS breaks down the PNA ridge afterwards and restrengthens the AO. Given the apparent signals that the AO should be weakening, we'll see if that becomes a persistent signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z NAM says no... suppresses it into S VA and N NC... most precip is south of the 0c 850 line in S VA. But there is a nice sized area of 0.25-0.50 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 9z SREFs mostly don't even get much precip to RIC. One member gives RIC 0.18" (liquid) of snow and then another has a little rain and that's it. 3z had 2 members giving RIC a fair amount of sleet and a couple members with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z GFS seems a bit more interesting... though through 63 lacking on precip. 850 line is south of DC toward the RIC area... precip field is a bit more expansive than the 12z NAM with measurable precip (i.e. .01") reaching the DC area... so perhaps a few flurries DC south. Most of the precip is down in N NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 GFS has the confluence over the NE just a smidge weaker, which allows the precip to get to DC. Need some more work to make this happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 GFS has the confluence over the NE just a smidge weaker, which allows the precip to get to DC. Need some more work to make this happen. Hopefully just a little work, at this point i would be thrilled to see a dusting out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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