TUweathermanDD Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Well, even if we don't get snow, it's nice to see the pattern very supportive of snow finally. Baby steps here. I have a hard time believing folks in DC/NVA/WV/MD would be too warm given how classic that pattern looks for snow for us. But, there's always a New And Different Screwing in the Mid-Atlantic. That's what I'm here for. I don't forecast anymore for pay, so this is all just fun. In the spirit of Christmas, maybe you could make a Scrooge emoticon for some of Wes's posts. I'd have to agree, temps with that set up should be favorable, the pattern is really improving honestly, and the light is coming through the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Tombo just posted the MJO forecast in the Philly subforum. It shows the MJO coming out of the circle of death back into Phase 5 and then perhaps reaching Phase 7 after Christmas. Phase 7,8 and 1 are more supportive of cold patterns in our area, from my limited understanding of the MJO. So, a few tenative signs that the beginning of the end is nigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 4 GFS ensemble members bring snow to DC-Baltimore on Saturday. None show a similar pattern for the Christmas Eve big low, but actually 4 show a sweet looking Nor'easter on Christmas night that would bring a literally 11th hour White Christmas. Almost all the ensemble members agree with the Op about a fairly cold pattern from this weekend moving forward. Some really crank the -EPO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Can I hug the ensembles all the way until Dec 25th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Because that worked so well last Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 4 GFS ensemble members bring snow to DC-Baltimore on Saturday. None show a similar pattern for the Christmas Eve big low, but actually 4 show a sweet looking Nor'easter on Christmas night that would bring a literally 11th hour White Christmas. Almost all the ensemble members agree with the Op about a fairly cold pattern from this weekend moving forward. Some really crank the -EPO ridge. As much as I want to discount it, the latest gfs is believable. That big ole high in the intermountain west is believable. Amplifies the pattern enough to finally set up the ec trough and have some sustained cold for more than a few days. Even if there is no snow, warm weather on xmas just feels wrong. I've been dying for a pattern good enough to get rid of my snow sourpuss avatar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 December 25th or 18z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 GGEM down for flurries overnight Friday into Saturday. http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06090.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Id like to see a small north trend so I can see more than flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 In the spirit of Christmas, maybe you could make a Scrooge emoticon for some of Wes's posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Because that worked so well last Christmas? Worked great last Christmas. I sat at my table eating Christmas dinner with my family and watched the snow fall in my spotlights. A wonderful evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 12z Euro has the storm but keeps all precip (and it's all quite light) south of DC. Temps are plenty cold in our area, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Meaningless hunch but I have a feeling we get a little snow this weekend. We've had quite a few materialize out of thin air over the years. Models catch on inside of 5 days and only keep getting better as we approach. I'm all in for 1". Nice cold high to the north and below freezing temps at the surface. 1" of fine powdery snow will fee like a blizzard after the last month and a half of modelwatching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 If we can get what the models show to verify then i have to think that we will get at least one event from it. We're due!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 12z Euro has the storm but keeps all precip (and it's all quite light) south of DC. Temps are plenty cold in our area, however. Yes, but... the precip is south of me and I wouldn't be close to snow, really. If it comes far enough north for precip, it would almost certainly be too warm for snow even there, I would suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'll believe in Christmas wrap around when it is falling You've learned! me too. I'll also believe in light snow for the weekend when it's falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Yes, there's a trade off. If somehow this stormed got much stronger and closer the coast, we'd certainly lose some of the cold air. Got to find the sweet spot. For this scenario, I think the sweet spot is storm is just a bit juicer and gets the 0.1" liquid contour over our area. A storm that gives us all 0.2-0.3" of liquid would probably end up being too warm as currently depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 You've learned! me too. I'll also believe in light snow for the weekend when it's falling. I try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I have a hard time believing folks in DC/NVA/WV/MD would be too warm given how classic that pattern looks for snow for us. But, there's always a New And Different Screwing in the Mid-Atlantic. I am sick of all the no GO NADS from last winter, i feel like we may see a dusting this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 12z Euro has the storm but keeps all precip (and it's all quite light) south of DC. Temps are plenty cold in our area, however. How does xmas timeframe look on Euro? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 How does xmas timeframe look on Euro? Just curious. I don't have pay subscription to the Euro, so I only have what Raleighwx's site has, which is every 24hrs through Day 10. That said, the Day 10 looks very interesting...certainly a little closer to some of the exciting GFS ensemble members. Definitely looking like it's about to produce a big storm...somewhere on the East Coast...near Christmas. Looks like two s/w's are trying to phase and the Euro has popped the surface low in Georgia. General pattern at that time is similar to what the GFS shows...not very good...but not as horrible as it's been. If I had to guess where that GA surface low goes beyond Day 10, I'd say probably an inland runner that leaves us crushingly disappointed with a rainy Christmas Eve (and snow in the western Apps) and then a cold Christmas day. But, it's not far from those exciting GFS ensembles. Edit...Euro is torching at 850 on Day 10. Definitely a rainer as depicted. GFS has a high over NE at this time that keeps things a bit colder. Lots of consensus today on a big storm...somewhere...in the 23-25th time period. http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNA240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Herb...interesting. I use this station as a proxy for MBY, since it's less than 1 mile away. This station was a bit warmer than you each time. http://spret.net/weather/index.html Back to the 12z GFS...it is freaking COLD for Christmas. Highs near freezing? Do you believe in Christmas miracles (wrap-around)? That's the kind of Christmas "wrapping" I can go for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I don't have pay subscription to the Euro, so I only have what Raleighwx's site has, which is every 24hrs through Day 10. That said, the Day 10 looks very interesting...certainly a little closer to some of the exciting GFS ensemble members. Definitely looking like it's about to produce a big storm...somewhere on the East Coast...near Christmas. Looks like two s/w's are trying to phase and the Euro has popped the surface low in Georgia. General pattern at that time is similar to what the GFS shows...not very good...but not as horrible as it's been. If I had to guess where that GA surface low goes beyond Day 10, I'd say probably an inland runner that leaves us crushingly disappointed with a rainy Christmas Eve (and snow in the western Apps) and then a cold Christmas day. But, it's not far from those exciting GFS ensembles. Lots of consensus today on a big storm...somewhere...in the 23-25th time period. http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNA240.gif Unfortunately, it also has a big low over the great lakes which is a no-no so I think your guess is the most likely. It does look cold post xmas but the day 10 euro to me looks less good over western NA as the ridge has less amplitude. Still it's a day 10 forecast so lots can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I think the 240 500 nhem panel on the euro looks excellent (compared to what we've been seeing). Ridging is extending up the pac coast all the way to northern BC. Without a -ao or nao, this is probably the best possible look we could have. I would be great to have the big hp in the n atlantic push towards greenland a bit but i'm not complainng either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I think the 240 500 nhem panel on the euro looks excellent (compared to what we've been seeing). Ridging is extending up the pac coast all the way to northern BC. Without a -ao or nao, this is probably the best possible look we could have. I would be great to have the big hp in the n atlantic push towards greenland a bit but i'm not complainng either. I'm less enamored of the ridge than you. it's flatter than last night and has a couple of shortwaves moving through it which will bring low pressure across canada with each of these waves. That makes it hard for the reallly cold air to get south. Possibly after the one in the gulf of ak comes over the ridge the latter will build more which might cut off the stream of shortwaves and allow a big high to build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I don't have pay subscription to the Euro, so I only have what Raleighwx's site has, which is every 24hrs through Day 10. That said, the Day 10 looks very interesting...certainly a little closer to some of the exciting GFS ensemble members. Definitely looking like it's about to produce a big storm...somewhere on the East Coast...near Christmas. Looks like two s/w's are trying to phase and the Euro has popped the surface low in Georgia. General pattern at that time is similar to what the GFS shows...not very good...but not as horrible as it's been. If I had to guess where that GA surface low goes beyond Day 10, I'd say probably an inland runner that leaves us crushingly disappointed with a rainy Christmas Eve (and snow in the western Apps) and then a cold Christmas day. But, it's not far from those exciting GFS ensembles. Edit...Euro is torching at 850 on Day 10. Definitely a rainer as depicted. GFS has a high over NE at this time that keeps things a bit colder. Lots of consensus today on a big storm...somewhere...in the 23-25th time period. http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNA240.gif Thanks...and it sounds better than a bubbling SE ridge...I'd take rain and 45F over pt cldy and 55F any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'm less enamored of the ridge than you. it's flatter than last night and has a couple of shortwaves moving through it which will bring low pressure across canada with each of these waves. That makes it hard for the reallly cold air to get south. Possibly after the one in the gulf of ak comes over the ridge the latter will build more which might cut off the stream of shortwaves and allow a big high to build. I'm just a little stoked that things are looking different. I'm going to need help with this but part but I like the setup as a whole (in a grasping at hope kinda way and not thinking it's ideal). Far from ideal but better than christmas in shorts. Looking at the nhem 500 loop from last night and today, the atlantic is looking a little better too. I may be out to lunch but ridging is building in the north atl at the end of the run. A 1038 hp off the coast of greenland. Wouldn't this help "squeeze" things a little if the ridge ends up being further west than modeled? Push cold air and the trough further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 It's amazing how things can appear to change in one day, maybe two. All doom and gloom yesterday and some hope today for late next week. Do the changes have anything to do with the SSW? If not, then what is the most likely reason for the changes that appear to have taken place in the models from yesterday? Just trying to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I just looked at today's euro and I am not impressed with the next 10 days, but getting a +PNA is certainly better than what we had....it is going to be pretty hard to get a proper storm track with an antecedent cold air mass in place without threading the needle or getting a cutoff or closed low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Tombo just posted the MJO forecast in the Philly subforum. It shows the MJO coming out of the circle of death back into Phase 5 and then perhaps reaching Phase 7 after Christmas. Phase 7,8 and 1 are more supportive of cold patterns in our area, from my limited understanding of the MJO. So, a few tenative signs that the beginning of the end is nigh... Forgive my lack of knowledge, but ideally we want the MJO phase to be at 8 or 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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