mitchnick Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Patience?!? It's nearing mid Dec after a month+ long craptastic pattern with no tangible relief in sight. AND, I live in the MA where our winter window is the size of a cabin on a ship. I'm probably one of the more relaxed around here but if I need more patience I should probably order some on amazon and stock up. Eh, just kiddin. I'm not really worked up at all. We shall see what our lovely stratoshpere can whip us and send our way. by the way, here's the website where you can get those maps in case anyone wanted to know http://www.geo.fu-be...tics/index.html you generally want to look at the 30mb map, but you can often see a change beginning higher up, 1mb-10mb first since they work down, at least so I recall reading somewhere but someone can correct if wrong anyway, when you compare the 240 hr map I posted with the 12hr map, you can see a huge difference any change has got to give us an improvement also, I posted a study paper in the NY sub forum that found high solar activity during an E QBO leads to colder stratosphere (as does low solar activity with a W QBO) I recently said that the sun was screwing us so far and that paper confirms it; the sun has backed off and that may explain why we are now seeing a "forecasted" change in the polar vortex as for the winter in general, we have had late start winters around here that have ended up not so bad snow-wise; I'm keeping the faith Bob since little or no snow before Christmas is not that unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I think I can help with a simplistic explanation. It's a teleconnection and can be our friend when + and our enemy when -. Quick and easy read: http://www.cpc.ncep....ledoc/pna.shtml Simpleton terms: +PNA = ridge west and trough east and -PNA = opposite When we have no blocking to our north near greenland (like right now), a +PNA is going the prominent driver of cold air and favorable track in the east. Long story short, we really need a ridge out west and a trough in the east if we even want to consider snow chances right now. If we have a -nao, we can have a trough out west and survive because the track is supressed. A -pna and -nao (aligned correctly) can pretty much put the entire country in a trough and we all get snow and cold. Without the block to the north, a -PNA almost always = seasonable to above average temps in the eastern third of the US. Interestingly enough, the 6z gfs suggests a potential +pna and -nao. I doubt it's right but MA weenies love that combo. PNA = Pacific-North American Basically just another index like the NAO or AO, but referring to whether there's ridging or troughing near the West Coast of North America. +PNA means ridging, -PNA means troughing. To get cold weather, we want a +PNA since an upstream (west) ridge means a trough over us, all things being equal. No, it's not a true pattern change, but it's a better look. On the downside, the models have teased us with this improving look a couple times in the last few weeks and the can keeps getting kicked down the road or the better look turns into a 2-3 day cool/cold shot and then it's back in the crapper. From a snow perspective, energy sliding under a western ridge can be a very good thing. But, typically closed lows in the southwest don't work out well since they teleconnect to a strengthening SE ridge. We want s/w's to slip under the ridge but keep moving eastward. 6z GFS ensemble mean actually did build heights into Greenland around Day 10 but then loses it afterwards. Euro didn't show this. I like the setup for this weekend if anything can actually happen, not for a big snow, but for something. Given we can't lock in a cold pattern, what we need is a transitory shot of cold air and then have a wave develop along the stationary front in the SE and give us some overrunning. Given the apparent lack of a potent s/w, that could never really produce a big storm, but could produce a 1-3" type event. That seems to be what a few runs were showing, but they now have anything even weaker and more surpressed. Thank you guys, I understand now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Thank you guys, I understand now. P.S. Sometimes people refer to a -PNA as a RNA. IMO, I don't like that terminology since it can be a bit confusing and the +/- is more conventional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 P.S. Sometimes people refer to a -PNA as a RNA. IMO, I don't like that terminology since it can be a bit confusing and the +/- is more conventional. Thanks for letting me know before I asked what RNA was and felt dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 by the way, here's the website where you can get those maps in case anyone wanted to know http://www.geo.fu-be...tics/index.html you generally want to look at the 30mb map, but you can often see a change beginning higher up, 1mb-10mb first since they work down, at least so I recall reading somewhere but someone can correct if wrong anyway, when you compare the 240 hr map I posted with the 12hr map, you can see a huge difference any change has got to give us an improvement also, I posted a study paper in the NY sub forum that found high solar activity during an E QBO leads to colder stratosphere (as does low solar activity with a W QBO) I recently said that the sun was screwing us so far and that paper confirms it; the sun has backed off and that may explain why we are now seeing a "forecasted" change in the polar vortex as for the winter in general, we have had late start winters around here that have ended up not so bad snow-wise; I'm keeping the faith Bob since little or no snow before Christmas is not that unusual It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that we have a predominant torch through the rest of the winter, but a two- or three-week stretch gets us to at least normal snowfall. In fact, I'd personally love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 12z GFS still has our potential little weekend surprise, but stubbornly keeps the precip out of the cold air. Figures we finally get cold air and a storm, but there's too much confluence over the northeast and southern Canada and the storm gets squashed...in the north trend we trust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Monday 12/12/11 was another day of local daytime high temp disparities. BWI came in at 46 degrees while IMBY, only a 20-min drive NW of BWI, max temp was 37 degrees. However, morning lows matched up well with BWI at 22 and 21 IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Herb...interesting. I use this station as a proxy for MBY, since it's less than 1 mile away. This station was a bit warmer than you each time. http://spret.net/weather/index.html Back to the 12z GFS...it is freaking COLD for Christmas. Highs near freezing? Do you believe in Christmas miracles (wrap-around)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'll believe in Christmas wrap around when it is falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 12z GFS still has our potential little weekend surprise, but stubbornly keeps the precip out of the cold air. Figures we finally get cold air and a storm, but there's too much confluence over the northeast and southern Canada and the storm gets squashed...in the north trend we trust? I was wondering about that. But if we get the precip, will the cold retreat with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'll believe in Christmas wrap around when it is falling Yes I'm dreaming here, but that would be a perfect Christmas eve. Cold, breezy and light snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I was wondering about that. But if we get the precip, will the cold retreat with it? Yes, it's a trade off (as it always is around here). There's probably a sweet-spot that keeps things sufficiently cold but allows the storm to move a bit farther north. Perhaps a more exciting possibility (but a much longer shot) is the s/w that is coming down the Plains at the same time. The s/w catches up with the surface low north of Bermuda and finally gives it a boost. If that could happen closer to the coast that would maybe let it hug the coast a bit more and get it a bit stronger. This is spit-balling here, BTW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Yes I'm dreaming here, but that would be a perfect Christmas eve. Cold, breezy and light snow falling. Perfect football weather to see the Ravens & Browns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Great football weather for a big dish of Rice. Great pattern for snow for us. Sweet +PNA, troughing over Newfoundland, ridging into Greenland, confluence over NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 ^^^ yay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Great football weather for a big dish of Rice. Great pattern for snow for us. Sweet +PNA, troughing over Newfoundland, ridging into Greenland, confluence over NE. Not only that, but the AO/NAO forecasts in the medium range have been trending in the negative direction for a couple of days now (but still neutral/positive for most of it outside of the quick dip into -AO territory this weekend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Canadian GGEM a little more positive on possible event over the weekend has some measurable qpf into DCA/BWI, but I'm not certain about temps; probably too warm in light of light qpf here are links to 84 and 96 hrs http://www.weatherof...ast/233_100.gif http://www.weatherof...ast/234_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Yes, it's a trade off (as it always is around here). There's probably a sweet-spot that keeps things sufficiently cold but allows the storm to move a bit farther north. Perhaps a more exciting possibility (but a much longer shot) is the s/w that is coming down the Plains at the same time. The s/w catches up with the surface low north of Bermuda and finally gives it a boost. If that could happen closer to the coast that would maybe let it hug the coast a bit more and get it a bit stronger. This is spit-balling here, BTW... Yeah, but it's enjoyable to see a met being a weenie too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 12Z NAM now that's more like it http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Nah, that's nothing to worry about. The nam is always too wet. by the way, here's the website where you can get those maps in case anyone wanted to know http://www.geo.fu-be...tics/index.html as for the winter in general, we have had late start winters around here that have ended up not so bad snow-wise; I'm keeping the faith Bob since little or no snow before Christmas is not that unusual Thanks for the link. I just added to my arsenal of bookmarks for things that I'll look at regularly but only know enough about to be dangerous with. Agree about snow. The only thing that I've changed my mind on is the possibility of an overall cold winter. I actually have a pretty good outlook on snow. I would have no problem hitting climo with a bunch of 1-3"s or 2-4"s. Big ones are great and all but it can be like chasing ghosts this far south. I've posted alot of stats and stuff so far this year but I want fellow weenies to know that I'm only good at looking at past statistics and trends to better predict future outcomes. I'm a numbers guy. I'm not good at all with the "whys" and "hows" of past patterns. If I post crap I encourage anyone to step in and correct my thoughts. My entire weather knowledge is armchair based. Never took classes on it but I've been a snow (and weather) enthusiest since I was a kid so I pay attention to alot of stuff. I'm super thankful for finding eastern and it's continuation on amwx. I've learned an incredible amount of stuff here and the mets and knowledgeable posters willing to share their knowledge is awesome. What I do for a career helps me analyze weather data. I've been in the financial portfolio risk analysis field and have designed several financial underwriting models. I spend my days reviewing past performance data to help predict and improve future perfomance expectations. This correlates well with weather data to some extent. The only reason I'm blabbing on about this stuff is because since I do post stats and stuff I don't want people thinking I'm a good weenie for weather forecasting beyond the #'s because I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Things finally starting to look up? Sun is starting to rise on us? Wes will be in shortly to use my bowl of cheerios as a urinal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Things finally starting to look up? Sun is starting to rise on us? Wes will be in shortly to use my bowl of cheerios as a urinal. That's at least been the trend on the models recently... though we all know how fast that can change. Models skills are still on the low end compared to what we're used to seeing, so everything needs to be heavily scrutinized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 ^^^ yay? Well, even if we don't get snow, it's nice to see the pattern very supportive of snow finally. Baby steps here. Canadian GGEM a little more positive on possible event over the weekend has some measurable qpf into DCA/BWI, but I'm not certain about temps; probably too warm in light of light qpf here are links to 84 and 96 hrs http://www.weatherof...ast/233_100.gif http://www.weatherof...ast/234_100.gif I have a hard time believing folks in DC/NVA/WV/MD would be too warm given how classic that pattern looks for snow for us. But, there's always a New And Different Screwing in the Mid-Atlantic. Yeah, but it's enjoyable to see a met being a weenie too. That's what I'm here for. I don't forecast anymore for pay, so this is all just fun. Wes will be in shortly to use my bowl of cheerios as a urinal. In the spirit of Christmas, maybe you could make a Scrooge emoticon for some of Wes's posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Well, even if we don't get snow, it's nice to see the pattern very supportive of snow finally. Baby steps here. I have a hard time believing folks in DC/NVA/WV/MD would be too warm given how classic that pattern looks for snow for us. But, there's always a New And Different Screwing in the Mid-Atlantic. That's what I'm here for. I don't forecast anymore for pay, so this is all just fun. In the spirit of Christmas, maybe you could make a Scrooge emoticon for some of Wes's posts. I'd have to agree, temps with that set up should be favorable, the pattern is really improving honestly, and the light is coming through the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Tombo just posted the MJO forecast in the Philly subforum. It shows the MJO coming out of the circle of death back into Phase 5 and then perhaps reaching Phase 7 after Christmas. Phase 7,8 and 1 are more supportive of cold patterns in our area, from my limited understanding of the MJO. So, a few tenative signs that the beginning of the end is nigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 4 GFS ensemble members bring snow to DC-Baltimore on Saturday. None show a similar pattern for the Christmas Eve big low, but actually 4 show a sweet looking Nor'easter on Christmas night that would bring a literally 11th hour White Christmas. Almost all the ensemble members agree with the Op about a fairly cold pattern from this weekend moving forward. Some really crank the -EPO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Can I hug the ensembles all the way until Dec 25th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Because that worked so well last Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 4 GFS ensemble members bring snow to DC-Baltimore on Saturday. None show a similar pattern for the Christmas Eve big low, but actually 4 show a sweet looking Nor'easter on Christmas night that would bring a literally 11th hour White Christmas. Almost all the ensemble members agree with the Op about a fairly cold pattern from this weekend moving forward. Some really crank the -EPO ridge. As much as I want to discount it, the latest gfs is believable. That big ole high in the intermountain west is believable. Amplifies the pattern enough to finally set up the ec trough and have some sustained cold for more than a few days. Even if there is no snow, warm weather on xmas just feels wrong. I've been dying for a pattern good enough to get rid of my snow sourpuss avatar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 December 25th or 18z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 GGEM down for flurries overnight Friday into Saturday. http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06090.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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