Dr No Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The GFS 12Z Ensemble members illustrate what modeling nightmare this storm is: 5 members with decent, at least moderate accumulations 4 with squat 3 with light (dusting, maybe inch or two) It's an event at hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 00Z Euro just came west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 00Z Euro playing catch-up?!? GFS 00Z is actually further east! The mind boggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 00Z Euro just came west... Not enough though right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 LOL wait what? GFS was like yea Euro It is east... GGEM oh yea I guess its right .. lets go east.. Euro comes in... mwhahaha.... Let's go west! GFS, GGEM, NOgaps,..... Etc Seriously though.... I was not expecting that.. LOL Shortwave showed up again on the euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Not enough though right? Low goes from 1004 at Hatteras to 996 off southern DE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I guess its the classic have the storm at long range, loose it at mid range and then bring it back in the short range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Despite the model jumping around.... I think Dave has a good handle on the second storm threat right now. :x I'm not sure I can add more to the discussion right now.. other than watch the pv and the short wave.. and how they interact once tomorrow's system is done.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Odds still favor this being out to sea for everyone or even worse, initially out to sea and then hooking back NW into upper mid-Atlantic/SNE. In order for us to get into the action, we need the southern s/w to be stronger and slower and/or the northern stream retrogression to speed up. That would allow the storm to develop further to the southwest and then be captured by the northern stream earlier. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 06Z GFS Op and Ens. both OTS. Ensembles bring it back enough for Maine to see some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 06Z GFS Op and Ens. both OTS. Ensembles bring it back enough for Maine to see some light snow. those same ensembles yesterday gave us .75 qpf with the qpf mean. When the GFS OPS showed a MECS 2 days ago, 8 of 12 members agreed. Basically, ensembles arent any better for the GFS than the OPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 We all know this thing is going to hook right around the MA and then pummel SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 with the nam and euro starting their typical northwest short range shifts I have become interested again. Just remember last week 72 hours out minneapolis was getting nothing or flurries, next thing you know they have an all out blizzard and the roof of the metrodome collapses. The short range northwest shifts can be very important as the shortwave comes into better sampling area. Yes it's the weenie in me making these statements, but honestly I could see it adjusting enough to get some accumulation in the immediate DC area. Looks like Norfolk will be the big winner with this storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This was reported in the Richmond Metro thread... "I know everybody is focused on the current event but the weekend storm is starting to look really good. 12z NAM track is just about perfect for SE VA. RIC gets in on it as well. " The latest I read here in this thread is that it goes OTS. Anybody have the latest read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This was reported in the Richmond Metro thread... "I know everybody is focused on the current event but the weekend storm is starting to look really good. 12z NAM track is just about perfect for SE VA. RIC gets in on it as well. " The latest I read here in this thread is that it goes OTS. Anybody have the latest read? Verbatim it goes OTS for you guys but we down in SE VA have the best shot at snow ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I know most of you have given up on the weekend, but check out the 12Z GFS at 78HR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nice west shift on 12z gfs. DC getting brushed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I know most of you have given up on the weekend, but check out the 12Z GFS at 78HR... We are now getting into the time range when the north/west trend begins for most significant events so this is not that surprising. How much it will trend is the key. Of course this time we need more then just a north trend, we need a west trend or a faster amplification/phasing with the PV and that is a little harder to get but not impossible at this range. Like it has been pointed out already, 72 hours before this current event the northern edge of the snow was supposed to be Richmond. 72 hours before the last event Detroit was ground zero and it ended up a blizzard for Minneapolis. When the models are not showing what we want people tend to forget just how off they usually are outside 48 hours. This is not as easy or favorable a setup as the KU storms last year were because were lacking a good western ridge and a strong STJ but it also is not the worst setup we have ever gotten snow from either. Its still got a shot. BTW I am going to attempt to keep my comments more general this year towards the mid atlantic and less location specific as I agree that I have been a little too IMOBY focused in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 12z GGEM has us getting brushed again as well... http://www.weatherof...ast/478_100.gif -- 72 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/233_100.gif -- 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hmmm... GGEm 72hout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Can we get a southern s/w strong enough so that we get a low forming on top of HSE instead of 100 miles east of it? My fantasy is this thing trending strong enough that the low closes off 50 miles east of the Delmarva and then the trough goes so negative that it moves due north right into central LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GGEM is SOOO close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Can we get a southern s/w strong enough so that we get a low forming on top of HSE instead of 100 miles east of it? My fantasy is this thing trending strong enough that the low closes off 50 miles east of the Delmarva and then the trough goes so negative that it moves due north right into central LI. Please be reminded that whagt you want hurts others like Se VA. So no, a low on hatteras is not desired althought it is getting close for you all up north for a possible phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You're right....I apologize......I was more looking for this storm to screw SNE Please be reminded that whagt you want hurts others like Se VA. So no, a low on hatteras is not desired althought it is getting close for you all up north for a possible phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You're right....I apologize......I was more looking for this storm to screw SNE How about just a shift of low track west about 75-100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 <br />Please be reminded that whagt you want hurts others like Se VA. So no, a low on hatteras is not desired althought it is getting close for you all up north for a possible phase.<br /><br /><br /><br />Actually this is a case where it would be possible for SE VA and DC to get a big snow if the phasing happens at the right moment. If the PV retreats a little quicker then currently progged and the low gets amped up a little faster so that this begins to cut due north at a further south latitude it could go from just east of Hatteras right up the coast and into NJ. That track would be good for Norfolk, Richmond, DC/BWI, and then up into eastern PA. It would be a nightmare for NJ, NYC, and Boston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> Actually this is a case where it would be possible for SE VA and DC to get a big snow if the phasing happens at the right moment. If the PV retreats a little quicker then currently progged and the low gets amped up a little faster so that this begins to cut due north at a further south latitude it could go from just east of Hatteras right up the coast and into NJ. That track would be good for Norfolk, Richmond, DC/BWI, and then up into eastern PA. It would be a nightmare for NJ, NYC, and Boston... BOS needs the trend to stop now. GGEM and Euro both bring them dangerously close to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> Actually this is a case where it would be possible for SE VA and DC to get a big snow if the phasing happens at the right moment. If the PV retreats a little quicker then currently progged and the low gets amped up a little faster so that this begins to cut due north at a further south latitude it could go from just east of Hatteras right up the coast and into NJ. That track would be good for Norfolk, Richmond, DC/BWI, and then up into eastern PA. It would be a nightmare for NJ, NYC, and Boston... As I stated in an earlier post, we need the polar vortex to retrograde and phase in earlier so as to capture this storm further to the southwest and then bring it up. As of now we are screwed and SNE is looking good. As the Euro seems to have led the way over the last 12 hours, it would be great to see a significant westward trend on today's 12Z Euro compared to last night's Euro. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 BOS needs the trend to stop now. GGEM and Euro both bring them dangerously close to rain. On a N/NNE wind? Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 BOS needs the trend to stop now. GGEM and Euro both bring them dangerously close to rain. Correct, this storm once it gets wound up is going to take a north and perhaps even a nnw trajectory due to the negative tilt of the trough. Boston needs the west trend to end now, for us to be into the good snows we need the trend to continue until NYC is freaking out and Philly is starting to get "nervous". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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