Weekend storm - Grasping for straws

[PhineasC]

So honestly...based on your years of winters here and model runs you don't see the train wreck this heading for? And yes I know I'm a negative nelly but it just has one of those feelings.

Sure, maybe we are doomed. I just don't let the 84HR NAM put the nail in my coffin. Maybe some here do. If GFS bails, then we are probably toast... until 06Z brings it back.

[PhineasC]

I admire your confidence......sort of

It stems from the fact that if I am wrong it doesn't matter at all.

[aldie 22]

It stems from the fact that if I am wrong it doesn't matter at all.

Yeah I'm pretty sure nobody dies if you are wrong. I agree about the NAM not being the final nail...I mean look at the shift from 6z to 0z today

[WinterWxLuvr]

It stems from the fact that if I am wrong it doesn't matter at all.

I love this. Check out my new sig.

[Ian]

Nah. It's still 2010

i want to believe.. im even cotton picking the best analogs snow-wise i can find. i dunno though.. skeptical.

[Quasievil]

i want to believe.. im even cotton picking the best analogs snow-wise i can find. i dunno though.. skeptical.

Easy to be skeptical. Euro isn't with us, GFS is... Charlie Brown getting ready to kick the football with Lucy saying "I promise I won't pull it away."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsSXMT0NrB4

[PhineasC]

I actually think the Euro will get super close tonight and the GFS will hold. GGEM will come back as well.

Well, wrong again. GFS is awful. Game over. Turn off the lights. Hasta la vista. Etc.

[Ian]

im guessing the gfs bails tonight... 0z or 6z?

[Kmlwx]

Your fault. Clearly. You should have never said it.

[mitchnick]

JB hasn't given up...yet

though the back peddling has started with him saying "some" accumulations in the big cities along I95, with greater snows S & E of the cities

[H2O]

JB hasn't given up...yet

though the back peddling has started with him saying "some" accumulations in the big cities along I95, with greater snows S & E of the cities

I'm really starting to like the idea of mods eliminating any JB reference anywhere on Amwx.

[Ellinwood]

I'm really starting to like the idea of mods eliminating any JB reference anywhere on Amwx.

+10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

*takes a breath*

000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

[clskinsfan]

Its over for those of us out to the northwest. Even if the storm tracks a little west it wont be enough for us. Disappointing for me. I really liked the look of this setup.

[mappy]

I'm really starting to like the idea of mods eliminating any JB reference anywhere on Amwx.

Well said sir.

[mappy]

Its over for those of us out to the northwest. Even if the storm tracks a little west it wont be enough for us. Disappointing for me. I really liked the look of this setup.

Cool story. Guess we will talk to you the next time there is a threat!

[mitchnick]

I'm really starting to like the idea of mods eliminating any JB reference anywhere on Amwx.

come on

he's the bloody car accident of wx that everyone has to slow down to see

[mappy]

come on

he's the bloody car accident of wx that everyone has to slow down to see

Exactly why he shouldn't be talked about here.

[H2O]

come on

he's the bloody car accident of wx that everyone has to slow down to see

But it really adds nothing because he is wrong so often. I equate JB to the crazy homeless guy holding an "End is Near" sign. 99% of people walking by are not going to pay attention no matter how loud he yells.

As far as the weekend storm goes, I'm disappointed that the models are showing what they are but I'm not ready to call it all off. Each run as we get closer will better nail the details and even if we end up with very brief light snow I will be happy.

[clskinsfan]

Cool story. Guess we will talk to you the next time there is a threat!

I'm not going anywhere during the winter. No matter how hard you try to get rid of me.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

But it really adds nothing because he is wrong so often. I equate JB to the crazy homeless guy holding an "End is Near" sign. 99% of people walking by are not going to pay attention no matter how loud he yells.

As far as the weekend storm goes, I'm disappointed that the models are showing what they are but I'm not ready to call it all off. Each run as we get closer will better nail the details and even if we end up with very brief light snow I will be happy.

Absolutely,

With approximately 100 hours to go I would not be surprised whatsoever to see the models adjust the track substantially in either direction before they really get a good lock on this thing.

Just gotta hope it's in the right direction!

[mappy]

I'm not going anywhere during the winter. No matter how hard you try to get rid of me.

Didn't say I was trying to get rid of you, was just saying if you have thrown in the towel for this threat... then we shall talk to you next time since you no longer will be dicussing this one with us. Right?

[kurtstack]

It's becoming a longshot, but I could see how a little more phasing or digging of the vorts could still bring this back. But, all models seem to be going away from that idea, so we'll see. There were some major western shifts with the blizzard that ended up in minnesota inside 72 hours when the energy reached good sampling areas, so there's always an outside shot that all the models are wrong with their upper air depictions this far in advance. Before the bashing begins, I'm not saying this is a "likely" scenario, probably 5% chance, but I could see how it could happen.

[PhineasC]

12Z GFS jumps back west. Still sort of a dud down here but an improvement from 00Z. Hope springs eternal, I suppose.

[Kmlwx]

12Z GFS jumps back west. Still sort of a dud down here but an improvement from 00Z. Hope springs eternal, I suppose.

I guess we wait and see what the big mean Euro has to say now.

[Ian]

the move back west might be significant at this range

[Dr No]

The stronger vortex centered NW of Lake Superior may help to yank this back further west over time.

SNE gets creamed as this thing starts to regenerate a vortex up there.

Sort of a rinse and repeat pattern next week... looks like a clipper or Miller B threat or two possible....and wind out the wazzou

[Kmlwx]

the move back west might be significant at this range

I won't get excited until Ian lowers his food stock to one box of crackers.

[Ian]

I won't get excited until Ian lowers his food stock to one box of crackers.

i dont think our top end is mecs+ but we could still squeak out a decent snow (especially if it's in terms of a one-two punch). the timing/setup etc is really tricky... even the euro could have issues with it. also, i seem to remember some instances of the euro jumping on something then losing it (seems longer this time) only to eventually return to something like it was showing initially. this could just be weenie rationalization.

[H2O]

i dont think our top end is mecs+ but we could still squeak out a decent snow (especially if it's in terms of a one-two punch). the timing/setup etc is really tricky... even the euro could have issues with it. also, i seem to remember some instances of the euro jumping on something then losing it (seems longer this time) only to eventually return to something like it was showing initially. this could just be weenie rationalization.

it seems like you are saying that if the 12z euro doesn't come further west then whatever it ends up showing will be the final solution?

[VA Mad Man]

And when will we see the next run of the Euro?

I guess we wait and see what the big mean Euro has to say now.