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Weekend storm - Grasping for straws

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

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Not at all, blocking is much more extreme and the setup along the West Coast is completely different. It was a Nina, though, and I have thought about this storm as a comparison.

of course the blocking more extreme but the pressure centers at 500 are pretty similar to progged on something like the gfs over canada. there are differences yes but it's at least an example of a decent storm without much western ridging in a strong nina. you're not going to find an exact match for any storm probably.

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MDstorm

MDstorm

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I know that things will certainly change over the next 3-4 days with the modeling, but my main concern right now is the eastern leaning of all of the models at this time. We know that the Euro is mostly a miss to the east as is the GGEM. Even the GFS which is a huge hit for Northern MId-atlantic and New England has the bulk of the precipitation to the ENE of us. I'm afraid that the trend may be to the east from this point on, but that may be my snow addiction paranoia setting in. :unsure:

MDstorm

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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I know that things will certainly change over the next 3-4 days with the modeling, but my main concern right now is the eastern leaning of all of the models at this time. We know that the Euro is mostly a miss to the east as is the GGEM. Even the GFS which is a huge hit for Northern MId-atlantic and New England has the bulk of the precipitation to the ENE of us. I'm afraid that the trend may be to the east from this point on, but that may be my snow addiction paranoia setting in. :unsure:

MDstorm

You can correct me if I am in error, but weren't the big storms of last year modeled east in the beginning and then gradually came back west? I'm with you though. I hope this thing comes back west a good deal.

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gymengineer

gymengineer

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^^

10.2 DCA

9.5 IAD

7.7 BWI

And the 'miracle' aspect of this storm-- DC was the I-95 bullseye for a storm that did not get shunt out to sea. It was an ice or rainstorm for the other cities NE of us. As discussed before, the more recent (since 1950) Mod/Strong Nina 6"+ snowstorms for our area have all been unusual in snowfall distribution and can be seen as flukes to some extent. The biggest fluke of all was probably 3/9/99.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Can anybody explain why the storm appears to hook around the DC, Baltimore area based on qpf maps?

I can try

the storm that forms is initially a STJ impulse and is sliding more eastward and thus the heavier precip in NC up into central VA, then as it partially phases and starts to bomb it pulls more north up the coast but a little too late for the interior northern mid atlantic.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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Can anybody explain why the storm appears to hook around the DC, Baltimore area based on qpf maps?

trough catches it late so we're light on the first shot of precip then after it passes by us to the east it really explodes and slows to do all that dumping to out N & E

not that unusual

EDIT: I just saw hoffman answered you....nevermind

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Ian

Ian

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And the 'miracle' aspect of this storm-- DC was the I-95 bullseye for a storm that did not get shunt out to sea. It was an ice or rainstorm for the other cities NE of us. As discussed before, the more recent (since 1950) Mod/Strong Nina 6"+ snowstorms for our area have all been unusual in snowfall distribution and can be seen as flukes to some extent. The biggest fluke of all was probably 3/9/99.

yeah i saw it was an ice storm in new england/ct when i googled it. strange. but looks like the trough was going neg early so i could see how they got warm air in there.

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MDstorm

MDstorm

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trough catches it late so we're light on the first shot of precip then after it passes by us to the east it really explodes and slows to do all that dumping to out N & E

not that unusual

EDIT: I just saw hoffman answered you....nevermind

You promised me that the dreaded "hook" wouldn't happen with this storm. :whistle:

MDstorm

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Dr No

Dr No

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The 18Z DGEX has a wang doodle on it... a little too far east for the heavy stuff in DC Metro. But, those who follow the DGEX know that is a really good spot for it at day 4/5.

I'm surprised no one has talked about the fact the storm has gained about a day in time since we've started tracking it. It's really becoming a Saturday event with overrunning starting along the inverted trof possibly early in the day.

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Ian

Ian

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hoffman is clogging up threads with his subtle "Manchester is getting fringed" stuff. I love the guy, but he is a freaking broken record. Just wait until the 00Z GFS shows a foot for Baltimore and only 9" for his backyard...

im mostly waiting for the gfs to bail on the system... ;) fringe worries can disappear then at least.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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hoffman is clogging up threads with his subtle "Manchester is getting fringed" stuff. I love the guy, but he is a freaking broken record. Just wait until the 00Z GFS shows a foot for Baltimore and only 9" for his backyard...

I really don't mind the sassing and I take it all in good fun but you sometimes do misinterpret my meaning. I am a skeptic when it comes to significant snows, I like to analyze what may go wrong but it does not always mean I am pessimistic just critical. Being in the mid atlantic in general I would be nervous that this does not start to amplify in time to really hit this area. That goes equally for DC and my area. As for the IMOBY implications, we are all guilty of wanting results in our location and I have been guilty of that in the past but this time you are actually off base because I am not going to be in Manchester. I am at a family reunion in Sea Isle NJ from Friday until Monday.

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aldie 22

aldie 22

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im guessing the gfs bails tonight... 0z or 6z?

It's funny....even though we have all seen this movie before...several times....we still will act shocked when it happens. I agree with you here and I think it is 0z. I also think the 12z euro tomorrow gives us hope then totally bails at 0z and by this time on Thursday the weekend forecast will be high of 39 and partly sunny. We all are a bunch of snow suckers when you dig deep enough

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PhineasC

PhineasC

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It's funny....even though we have all seen this movie before...several times....we still will act shocked when it happens. I agree with you here and I think it is 0z. I also think the 12z euro tomorrow gives us hope then totally bails at 0z and by this time on Thursday the weekend forecast will be high of 39 and partly sunny. We all are a bunch of snow suckers when you dig deep enough

I actually think the Euro will get super close tonight and the GFS will hold. GGEM will come back as well.

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