Kmlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 So what's the KMA look like? or the JMA too for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 So what's the KMA look like? or the JMA too for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 LWX has silent 20 POPS for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Considering where the GFS has been, it wouldn't take much to nudge the storm further N/W and introduce some mixed precip into the area. maybe but the euro kinda cancels that out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Not too long before the answer is.... a compromise between the GFS and the Euro or somewhere in the middle is probably right. Congrats Ocean City and Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Not too long before the answer is.... a compromise between the GFS and the Euro or somewhere in the middle is probably right. Congrats Ocean City and Norfolk i would definitely still lean toward a scenario that's less than the gfs for sure. the euro has had hiccups before but it's still got a way to go... if we dont start getting there soon i fear we'll instead see the gfs cave as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Not too long before the answer is.... a compromise between the GFS and the Euro or somewhere in the middle is probably right. Congrats Ocean City and Norfolk Norfolk!? Yeah I do agree though that with the Euro holding steady that a compromise is looking like a good bet at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 i would definitely still lean toward a scenario that's less than the gfs for sure. the euro has had hiccups before but it's still got a way to go... if we dont start getting there soon i fear we'll instead see the gfs cave as usual I really think the reason there is so much optimism is because of what happened last year. Every other year if the euro kept holding server like this we all knew the prospects were dwindling. Anyway that Atlas dude on the weather side told me to relax buddy and that things are trending good so I will ignore the past history for our area and enjoy my feet of snow just like it's winter 09-10 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 I really think the reason there is so much optimism is because of what happened last year. Every other year if the euro kept holding server like this we all knew the prospects were dwindling. Anyway that Atlas dude on the weather side told me to relax buddy and that things are trending good so I will ignore the past history for our area and enjoy my feet of snow just like it's winter 09-10 all over again. the crazy block is still a wildcard but i think last winter will haunt us here and there for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 the crazy block is still a wildcard but i think last winter will haunt us here and there for a while Last year was just a dream.....of course we could still be asleep but I personally think we woke up with that dang hot summer. Lets get some widespread white on the ground for Christmas and I will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Last year was just a dream.....of course we could still be asleep but I personally think we woke up with that dang hot summer. Lets get some widespread white on the ground for Christmas and I will be happy. Pretty much agree for the most part here. I still think the door is open for a healthy "normal" DC snowstorm though. I don't really think we are getting 7+inches though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I really think the reason there is so much optimism is because of what happened last year. Every other year if the euro kept holding server like this we all knew the prospects were dwindling. Anyway that Atlas dude on the weather side told me to relax buddy and that things are trending good so I will ignore the past history for our area and enjoy my feet of snow just like it's winter 09-10 all over again. It's not doing much to me Though I may be an exception to the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Last year was just a dream.....of course we could still be asleep but I personally think we woke up with that dang hot summer. Lets get some widespread white on the ground for Christmas and I will be happy. i'd be happy with a few inches but i guess it might be all or nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Pretty much agree for the most part here. I still think the door is open for a healthy "normal" DC snowstorm though. I don't really think we are getting 7+inches though. I look at this way...what is easier to believe...the widespread 2'+ the models were showing last year or the OTS the euro is showing this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I really think the reason there is so much optimism is because of what happened last year. Every other year if the euro kept holding server like this we all knew the prospects were dwindling. Anyway that Atlas dude on the weather side told me to relax buddy and that things are trending good so I will ignore the past history for our area and enjoy my feet of snow just like it's winter 09-10 all over again. LOL--- I was just going to ask when the switch happened that 5 days out is now an acceptable time to be pinpointing anything more than "there will be a low pressure somewhere." I remember a few years ago (like 2/06) when it was seen as total weenie behavior to be getting pumped up outside of 72 hours. We knew the solutions would change lots up through 72 hours, and only when it started getting within the 2-3 day forecast would we even begin to be excited that it might actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On a positive note, it is still only Tuesday so there really is a decent amount of time left for things to shift in either direction. It is fair to say that a lot of scenarios are still on the table. I said it earlier I expect a fringe event to maybe 1-3" and anything more would be gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 LOL--- I was just going to ask when the switch happened that 5 days out is now an acceptable time to be pinpointing anything more than "there will be a low pressure somewhere." I remember a few years ago (like 2/06) when it was seen as total weenie behavior to be getting pumped up outside of 72 hours. We knew the solutions would change lots up through 72 hours, and only when it started getting within the 2-3 day forecast would we even begin to be excited that it might actually happen. i think the models are better now than they were then no? i would say in 'thread the needle' or 'need this and that and that to happen' situations we generally do worse than hoped. no doubt the snow last winter still weighs on memories but there should still be an overriding pessimism regarding this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I look at this way...what is easier to believe...the widespread 2'+ the models were showing last year or the OTS the euro is showing this year? Right, and it was really only one of the storms last winter (2/5-6) that could be fairly confidently seen as a probability for this area at this range beforehand. 2/10 was definitely wobbly in people's expectations, and 12/19-- no confidence until Wednesday night/Thursday during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well nobody answered - My weenie question goes unanswered. If Ji didn't post the JMA it's probably horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 i think the models are better now than they were then no? i would say in 'thread the needle' or 'need this and that and that to happen' situations we generally do worse than hoped. no doubt the snow last winter still weighs on memories but there should still be an overriding pessimism regarding this storm. I wonder if there isn't also an increasing faith in technology, whether warranted or not... Nothing like meteorology to crush that faith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I wonder if there isn't also an increasing faith in technology, whether warranted or not... Nothing like meteorology to crush that faith! What I find most encouraging is that all of the models have the same solution and they all come to it through the exact same evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 the crazy block is still a wildcard but i think last winter will haunt us here and there for a while It is still 2010.......BELIEVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well nobody answered - My weenie question goes unanswered. If Ji didn't post the JMA it's probably horrid. Sorry, the only models I check are the NAM, GFS and ECMWF (and occasionally the UKMET) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Sorry, the only models I check are the NAM, GFS and ECMWF (and occasionally the UKMET) I look at the ukmet and GEM even though the latter is a step behind the gfs and ukmet. Lately the ukmet has been a storm maker so I haven't given it as much attention as I might normally. This whole storm no storm deal for the mid atlantic still is pretty much how quickly the phasing takes place. We probably won't know that for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The GFS has been very consistent in its last several runs. The sequence of events that will most directly impact the storm formation is getting down into the Day 2-3 range now. Encouraging, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Sorry, the only models I check are the NAM, GFS and ECMWF (and occasionally the UKMET) i usually only look at the nam and gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS maybe a tad east but essentially remaining with the storm. Need Euro on board and we're lookin good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 i usually only look at the nam and gfs. That's like watching only one station like Fox News to get all of your information on current events (ECMWF is like the BBC) 99% of the time it's comparing the GFS and ECMWF with NAM as a tie-breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 sorta kinda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 ^^ 10.2 DCA 9.5 IAD 7.7 BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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