sauss06 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Starting to think this thing might slide out south and brush us but totally miss NYC north. I was thinking back to last year on the 12-19 event. Didn't we think that was going to miss all of us south? Or am i thinking of a different storm? boy what a coincidence that would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Starting to think this thing might slide out south and brush us but totally miss NYC north. not one model right now shows an I95 except for the GFS which barely has us getting into the action. We need some major changes in the next 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I was thinking back to last year on the 12-19 event. Didn't we think that was going to miss all of us south? Or am i thinking of a different storm? boy what a coincidence that would be You'd be correct. That storm didn't really show that it was a good hit for us until the 17th. Prior to that it was still going back and forth from a near miss, OTS and a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Starting to think this thing might slide out south and brush us but totally miss NYC north. I'm fully prepared for a fringe event or light snow at best (1-3") anything better is just gravy. I haven't invested much into this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I was thinking back to last year on the 12-19 event. Didn't we think that was going to miss all of us south? Or am i thinking of a different storm? boy what a coincidence that would be so many things seem and feel different this year though...in 07-08 storms didn't trend NW or anywhere really...they just disappeared. I can see by Friday this thing not even being on the board. I'm no expert though so that could just be my negative nelly thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 so many things seem and feel different this year though...in 07-08 storms didn't trend NW or anywhere really...they just disappeared. I can see by Friday this thing not even being on the board. I'm no expert though so that could just be my negative nelly thoughts More runs have shown a miss than a hit at this point. The Euro showed a nice storm one time, I think. Now it is consistently OTS. Not a good sign, no matter how "superb" the 500 maps look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I also noticed DT is starting to mention over and over what is going wrong. The woofing has definitely stopped. He smells a dead dog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I also noticed DT is starting to mention over and over what is going wrong. The woofing has definitely stopped. He smells a dead dog... The veterans on the board SHOULD be able to see the writing on the wall....it's in pencil right now but the pen is in hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The veterans on the board SHOULD be able to see the writing on the wall....it's in pencil right now but the pen is in hand New England should definitely be worried but anybody below the mason dixon line should pay attention to this right up until the event, as even subtle changes in the 500mb orientation would have dramatic effects on the outcome in these areas. It's a low probability high consequence event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 New England should definitely be worried but anybody below the mason dixon line should pay attention to this right up until the event, as even subtle changes in the 500mb orientation would have dramatic effects on the outcome in these areas. It's a low probability high consequence event. I appreciate that....my only point is that the expectations should be kept in check...I feel as though some will only be satisfied if this is a big event when probabilities are that it may very well be a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Think about it this way- everything has been amplified this year. A good case is the super-primary that just trudged through the upper midwest... Why would that tendency of amplification stop now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I also noticed DT is starting to mention over and over what is going wrong. The woofing has definitely stopped. He smells a dead dog... are these the same posts from yesterday Morning when there w as massive dpression after the 0z monday euro and the 12z gfs took the event away? NO? well they seem awfully familar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 are these the same posts from yesterday Morning when there w as massive dpression after the 0z monday euro and the 12z gfs took the event away? NO? well they seem awfully familar The event is gone as of right now, Dave. Maybe it will come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Think about it this way- everything has been amplified this year. A good case is the super-primary that just trudged through the upper midwest... Why would that tendency of amplification stop now? I don't think it will stop now. 84 hour nam looked to be a near perfect setup. I'm leaning toward this happening at this point as we get closer the vorts are diggging more, and I expect that trend to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I don't think it will stop now. 84 hour nam looked to be a near perfect setup. I'm leaning toward this happening at this point as we get closer the vorts are diggging more, and I expect that trend to continue. Still a bit early for this. I'd like to see at least 2-6 more runs of the Euro and at least a few more of the GFS to really discern a "trend" towards that. At this point I still think the OTS solution is just as likely as a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Still a bit early for this. I'd like to see at least 2-6 more runs of the Euro and at least a few more of the GFS to really discern a "trend" towards that. At this point I still think the OTS solution is just as likely as a hit. Agreed... we are 5 days away... LOTS can happen, both good and bad, between now and then. Hanging onto every model run is silly at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Agreed... we are 5 days away... LOTS can happen, both good and bad, between now and then. Hanging onto every model run is silly at this point. 84 hour nam is far from the end all be all. But it does throw us a bone. Still a lot to be resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The veterans on the board SHOULD be able to see the writing on the wall....it's in pencil right now but the pen is in hand yeah, but the general rule of thumb in these cases are that when the models have an out to sea scenario days before the event, that's NOT bad news for us I can recall many events over the years that had storms heading out to sea to our south at this range that hit us, including most of last year's storms on the other hand, when the models start showing it pass to our west we are usually cooked;very few of those have hit us to the best of my recollection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 fwiw, JB's morning update mentions that he thinks the area from TENN to the coastal mid and north Atlantic states will get hit with the weekend storm looks like he's throwing the towel in for NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Throwing in the towel in the MA now would be a mistake IMO. Event is still a long ways out and models have a storm forming. At this point there is very little consensus about the track and wouldn't take huge shifts to get the track we want. Just have to keep watching and if a few days from now the models are all OTS then I'll throw the towel in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 fwiw, JB's morning update mentions that he thinks the area from TENN to the coastal mid and north Atlantic states will get hit with the weekend storm looks like he's throwing the towel in for NE I don't think this has ever looked good for NE. I think even NYC will be fringed at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Don't get too caught up in the model solutions right now....just make sure the players are on the field. Gotta have that interaction up in MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Don't get too caught up in the model solutions right now....just make sure the players are on the field. Gotta have that interaction up in MN. OK, but does that mean I have to get back to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 OK, but does that mean I have to get back to work heck no....I still model watch like a champ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 OK, but does that mean I have to get back to work Work? Whats work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 OK, but does that mean I have to get back to work Work is the only 4 letter word you do not use . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 OK, but does that mean I have to get back to work i think someone needs their mouth washed out with soap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 fwiw, JB's morning update mentions that he thinks the area from TENN to the coastal mid and north Atlantic states will get hit with the weekend storm looks like he's throwing the towel in for NE not sure how you are translating this. North Mid Atlantic would include NYC He says upper pattern would support snow west of what model show(He said it should snow fairly far back) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wow 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I don't think this has ever looked good for NE. I think even NYC will be fringed at best. The 12z GFS disagrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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