pojrzsho Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Everything makes sense except the strong december sun angle. It doesnt get any weaker. Sarcasm..this is gonna be a fun week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 If the storm does happen is it possible we could get it to move 50-75 miles west and nudge the higher precip totals west especially around DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 If the storm does happen is it likely we could get it to move 50-75 miles west and nudge the higher precip totals west especially around DC? It will move around a lot over the next week. Some runs will show nothing, some will show rain, and some will show a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 If the storm does happen is it likely we could get it to move 50-75 miles west and nudge the higher precip totals west especially around DC? Or east 50-75 miles to help ORF? Point is, it is just too early to worry about these things. We all want it our way. I wish we all could get as much snow as possible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Have you forgotton all about 2007-2008 or 2008-2009? Lakes cutter or fish storm final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Have you forgotton all about 2007-2008 or 2008-2009? Lakes cutter or fish storm final call. Pick one. If you're going to make this kind of call you have to pick one or the other..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Have you forgotton all about 2007-2008 or 2008-2009? Lakes cutter or fish storm final call. if the block actually backs up west as shown on several models it's a real threat imo. we've already seen a preview of the setup with the block to the east and storms ramping up in the ocean last week. shift it all west and we're in the party. there should be a window there... it's still not as "easy" as the storms last yr as you're going to need things to go just right but it's a good look with support now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 if the block actually backs up west as shown on several models it's a real threat imo. we've already seen a preview of the setup with the block to the east and storms ramping up in the ocean last week. shift it all west and we're in the party. there should be a window there... it's still not as "easy" as the storms last yr as you're going to need things to go just right but it's a good look with support now. Logic I fell into the trap of using that the last few La Ninas. Now I just close my eyes and scream lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 if the block actually backs up west as shown on several models it's a real threat imo. we've already seen a preview of the setup with the block to the east and storms ramping up in the ocean last week. shift it all west and we're in the party. there should be a window there... it's still not as "easy" as the storms last yr as you're going to need things to go just right but it's a good look with support now. Thats the whole ballgame right there. I was excited yesterday not so much about the storm. But the setup. With the block backing west the odds of a storm will increase dramatically. This threat is very real at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Well the Euro over the last 24 hours has probably shown the full potential of this storm-----from a big dog per Sunday's 12Z to a big pile of poop per Monday's 00Z. The pattern is ripe, but phasing events are always big risk/big reward. Once the Euro gets within 5 days, the answer should be more clear. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This setup is so much better than anything we have seen so far this winter. I dont know how anyone can just nix this. I for one think a threat in the next 2 weeks is very real. threat is real but hpc saying very low probability event, at this time... REGARDING SYSTEM DETAILS...THE 00Z GFS CONTAINS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS EARLY AS DAY 3...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOLUTIONS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH LIE NEAR THE FAST AND STRONG EDGES OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE RESPECTIVELY. THESE DIFFERENCES THEN GROW WITH TIME EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTING TO A SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS A MAJOR EAST COAST SNOWSTORM BY DAYS 6/7. COMPARISONS WITH ALL OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WHICH COMPRISES OVER 100 SOLUTIONS...PLACES THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH AN EVENT AROUND 5 PERCENT. THUS...GIVEN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL'S SYSTEM DETAILS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ITS SOLUTION IS CURRENTLY DISCARDED. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/12Z JMA...PROJECT A MEAN DAY 3-7 PATTERN THAT CONTAINS LONGER WAVELENGTH AND LESS AMPLITUDE FOR TROUGHS EVENTUALLY EXITING THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS BROADER/FLATTER PATTERN...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORT BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS...TELECONNECTS WELL WITH THE UNUSUALLY LARGE POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY FORMING OVER BAFFIN ISLAND IN CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Have you forgotton all about 2007-2008 or 2008-2009? Lakes cutter or fish storm final call. I am having trouble deciding if you are worse than Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 If the storm does happen is it possible we could get it to move 50-75 miles west and nudge the higher precip totals west especially around DC? And eliminate the Eastern Shore from having any fun, no thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I am having trouble deciding if you are worse than Ji. Their posts are equally irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 it's disconcerting to have everything back off but the 500 maps especially on the gfs still leave the door open it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Serious question from a newbie: is the GFS solution cold enough? Looks kind of warm up the coast. Not trying to be a weenie, just trying to figure out how excited to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 it's disconcerting to have everything back off but the 500 maps especially on the gfs still leave the door open it seems. ggem is still a go as of today so it's not like the idea has totally disappeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 ggem is still a go as of today so it's not like the idea has totally disappeared And GEFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Last December featured a Massive Negative AO and on December 9th a midwest blizzard that hit Iowa hard. This year: Massive -AO: check Midwest blizzard early December: check Mid-atlantic bomb around the 18th: Yet to be determined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I hope that this doesn't develop into one of those "hook jobs".----southern low scoots to our south, then bombs out to sea, and finally gets pulled back toward upper Mid-atlantic/New England. Those are the worst to watch unfold. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I hope that this doesn't develop into one of those "hook jobs".----southern low scoots to our south, then bombs out to sea, and finally gets pulled back toward upper Mid-atlantic/New England. Those are the worst to watch unfold. MDstorm I agree they are the worst but if you look at the configuration of the troughs this year, I think its more likely for it to hit us and then hook N/NNW and turn to rain in places like Boston (think 1/25/00 path, not necessarily strength) but I could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I agree they are the worst but if you look at the configuration of the troughs this year, I think its more likely for it to hit us and then hook N/NNW and turn to rain in places like Boston (think 1/25/00 path, not necessarily strength) but I could be wrong I hope that you are right. I'm still concerned about the portrayed western ridge axis (too far east for my liking). MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Add1212 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This is the most important event of my life...over marriage kids etc Looking like Ji is getting his beach towel spread out and his pants around his ankles again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Wow 18z GFS. Seems like the models are consolidating toward the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Serious question from a newbie: is the GFS solution cold enough? Looks kind of warm up the coast. Not trying to be a weenie, just trying to figure out how excited to get. to far out just depends on the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 wonder if the Ravens game on sunday here in maryland will be a snowy game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 wonder if the Ravens game on sunday here in maryland will be a snowy game too far out to speculate on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Very f'ing funny! I may have "sharted" I laughed so hard. Looking like Ji is getting his beach towel spread out and his pants around his ankles again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Last December featured a Massive Negative AO and on December 9th a midwest blizzard that hit Iowa hard. This year: Massive -AO: check Midwest blizzard early December: check Mid-atlantic bomb around the 18th: Yet to be determined im about 50/50 or 40/60 (against) but wanting to lean toward it... hopefully we see a good 0z package. the pattern is pretty sweet imo, we just need things to come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Starting to think this thing might slide out south and brush us but totally miss NYC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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