Master of Disaster Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just some random thoughts here, but there are several indicators in my opinion that this will not be much of a storm for the Mid Atlantic and I-95 area below say NYC. First, the trough tries to turn negative on most of the models too late. And when it is turning negative, its only slightly. From what I have seen in the past, our big East Coast storms involve a strongly negative trough. Second, when is the last time anyone has seen clippers diving through Southern Virginia repeatedly during a winter recently? I dont recall it happening which would tend to tell me that the PV is stonger than average causing supression of any system that makes a run for the coast. Third, and this is more of a question than an opinion, but dont these storms usually follow the baroclinic zone between above and sub freezing temps? If thats the case, its been clear for days that this storm will be out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 why anyone would believe what the models show more than 5 days out, considering what has happened in the last several day is mysterious!!! Because we're not weenies who give up on the models because of one tough-to-forecast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12z gfs is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12z gfs is ugly But expected based on previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12z gfs is ugly at least an early, prompt death of this storm will allow us to fantasize masturbate move on to the next threat next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 at least an early, prompt death of this storm will allow us to fantasize masturbate move on to the next threat next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nina winter. Clippers are where it will be this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nina winter. Clippers are where it will be this winter. And thats a sad commentary in and of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Spoiled brats, this winter is going to be the death of some of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Spoiled brats, this winter is going to be the death of some of you. Ive said it before and ill say it again. I will happily give up a big storm for the next few years just to have the Winter we had last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Spoiled brats, this winter is going to be the death of some of you. it already kinda sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 it already kinda sucks Yeah and it's a shame. I wasn't expecting last winter again (obviously). At least we've gotten some flakes and it looks nice outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 it already kinda sucks Not for S VA. They have recieved early love this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nieciez Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, at least we can now say it hasn't been snowless this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not for S VA. They have recieved early love this year. lol...2 inches total here. Not exactly a lot of "love" I'll let you know when we catch up on the 60+ you had over us last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 lol...2 inches total here. Not exactly a lot of "love" I'll let you know when we catch up on the 60+ you had over us last year. Different year, different pattern. What are you expecting this year? The same as last? Your ground is white right now, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Different year, different pattern. What are you expecting this year? The same as last? Your ground is white right now, yes? It was nice to see it snow but I felt sort of let down.. Back to normal I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It was nice to see it snow but I felt sort of let down.. Back to normal I guess yesterday was a gift. We weren't supposed to get much of anything initially. I still think that any call for 12"+ season total is bold so I'm of the opinion to bank anything we get now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 its officially NOWCASTING time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 yesterday was a gift. We weren't supposed to get much of anything initially. I still think that any call for 12"+ season total is bold so I'm of the opinion to bank anything we get now. hey ill take any snow i can get but 1.5" that equals wet roads just isnt the same -- i'll probably hold onto the hangover this season i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 lol...2 inches total here. Not exactly a lot of "love" I'll let you know when we catch up on the 60+ you had over us last year. Only 2" there so far? We already have around 5" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 As I posted in the ensembles thread... ALL 18Z members get some snow up to DC. OP is the only one that does not! 3 Members are a bigger deal for DC... (P003, P005, N003) All 18Z members seem to have decent snow for E VA including RIC. It appears that many of the members aren't really suffering from the conv. feedback that the Op is suffering from, resulting in a more potent low. Glad I don't have to make a forecast...and not sure what it all means if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 As I posted in the ensembles thread... ALL 18Z members get some snow up to DC. OP is the only one that does not! 3 Members are a bigger deal for DC... (P003, P005, N003) All 18Z members seem to have decent snow for E VA including RIC. It appears that many of the members aren't really suffering from the conv. feedback that the Op is suffering from, resulting in a more potent low. Glad I don't have to make a forecast...and not sure what it all means if anything. At this time range using the GFS ensembles is a big mistake as their low resolution will spread the precip out which is why they are hitting dc. You should be looking at the sref which have a much more bearish look as they have better resolution than the gfs ensembles. That said, the best ensembles now are the higher resolution versions that have higher skill: the eruo, gfs, ukmet, both canadian models and the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 At this time range using the GFS ensembles is a big mistake as their low resolution will spread the precip out which is why they are hitting dc. You should be looking at the sref which have a much more bearish look as they have better resolution than the gfs ensembles. That said, the best ensembles now are the higher resolution versions that have higher skill: the eruo, gfs, ukmet, both canadian models and the nam. Thanks for your insight. What amazes me is the diverity of solutions on the members (SREF and GFS) still for 36 hours. I guess though in most cases we aren't monitoring for a miniscule shift that means snow or no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 FWIW The 06z nam came west.. check out the 700 map btw i noticed that none of the models are catching the precip currently over tenessee/kentucky.. infact they had it but they modeled it to dissipate before it even got to where it was.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 FWIW The 06z nam came west.. check out the 700 map btw i noticed that none of the models are catching the precip currently over tenessee/kentucky.. infact they had it but they modeled it to dissipate before it even got to where it was.. Since we're grasping for straws, the eta5 panel (bottom center) is one of the few that picks up on any of that precip. It's also the one that gets the snow this far north. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSUS_3z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The weenie radar is sure to get some excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The weenie radar is sure to get some excited. and surface obs indicate none of the snow is reaching the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 and surface obs indicate none of the snow is reaching the ground Yeah, I think everyone knows it's not a reliable radar for tracking observable precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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