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Weekend storm - Grasping for straws


Ian

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They are useless.

Model run to model run is useless... But with the exception of a few runs of the Euro and GFS, the consensus of the operational runs for the last week or so have been putting this thing away from the MA coast, and that seems constant despite the odd exception (like yesterday's Euro). A major shift back to the Coast isn't impossible, but I don't think the models themselves have proved useless - the run to run flip flopping is frustrating, but it's part of the modeling system - I don't think the system architecture was ever designed to be taken on a one-by-one basis.

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Who let the weenies run rampant in this thread? We were doing so good up until 2-3 days ago :(

brb waiting for 12Z GFS+Euro

I fear that since the waves have all been fully sampled now that the spacing between the southern energy and the northern vort is just going to be too much to overcome. I would be very surprised if any of the models today came forward with a nice hit for our area.

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ya, its time to look ahead

this clipper has been showing up quite strong for some time on all the models, including the Euro

last night's Euro gave us an extended period of snow starting Day 8 (but then, maybe that should tell me something!)

actually, regardless of the Euro, all the models have shown it a decent threat

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this clipper has been showing up quite strong for some time on all the models, including the Euro

last night's Euro gave us an extended period of snow starting Day 8 (but then, maybe that should tell me something!)

actually, regardless of the Euro, all the models have shown it a decent threat

I agree. The clipper looked nice in the early runs yesterday. Then the models backed off. Now it looks good again.

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this clipper has been showing up quite strong for some time on all the models, including the Euro

last night's Euro gave us an extended period of snow starting Day 8 (but then, maybe that should tell me something!)

actually, regardless of the Euro, all the models have shown it a decent threat

The last run of the GFS showed it as quite a substantial threat as well... But I'm learning my lesson for this year - don't even bother speculating until 3-4 days out....

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why anyone would believe what the models show more than 5 days out, considering what has happened in the last several day is mysterious!!!

The models have been bad this year for anyone to just rely on models alone does'nt make sense, a good met will look at the whole picture. I do agree that in a near strong nina as we have it's unlikely we have a major snowstorm until it weakens, later in the winter our chances are better.

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