aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 wx models ain't supposed to be like horses but I still think there is a trend west based on 0Z and 6Z model comparisons maybe not enough for MA, but there is a trend FWIW the 6z GFS gives light to moderate snows for DCA - BWI around an inch or so of snow and also brings back the midweek clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 FWIW the 6z GFS gives light to moderate snows for DCA - BWI around an inch or so of snow and also brings back the midweek clipper yep and even the 6Z NAM is further west with its precip shield than 0Z the way I see it, we'll be out of all "reasonable" hope after 12Z and tonight's 0Z run is our last weenie hope but that doesn't mean I won't follow it to the bitter end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 yep and even the 6Z NAM is further west with its precip shield than 0Z the way I see it, we'll be out of all "reasonable" hope after 12Z and tonight's 0Z run is our last weenie hope but that doesn't mean I won't follow it to the bitter end more precip west isnt that good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 more precip west isnt that good but more east is worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 looking at the sat and radar pics this AM, I don't recall anyone else mentioning it, but I'm starting to think that the jet coming into southern CA is kicking this thing along and that's why its off the coast even though many mets have thought it would be closer all things considered http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 yep and even the 6Z NAM is further west with its precip shield than 0Z the way I see it, we'll be out of all "reasonable" hope after 12Z and tonight's 0Z run is our last weenie hope but that doesn't mean I won't follow it to the bitter end I know I will follow it....it's what we do no harm in that. If it's a complete miss then that is what it is...if it drops a bit of snow then great...if more....even better! The disappointment only lasts a minute and it's usually before the event anyway. In the old days when we got screwed we would be on here cracking jokes and having a good time. I wonder if that will still be the case? I have a gut feeling that it won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, for what its worth, the 3z SREFS are way west of 21z. Really more NW. 3 or 4 of the individual members look pretty good. All of them take a big jump WRT precip, but look like not so much with the position of the low? Maybe they are just stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not sure if this was posted: .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CWA DRY...HOWEVER WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME WHICH COULD AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. 00Z GFS RUN ALSO TRENDED FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER RUNS...BUT NOW THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD A 12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC /HIGHEST POPS EAST/. BUT OBVIOUSLY THE CHANGEABLE NATURE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MODELS PROVIDES A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST RIGHT NOW AND THUS ITS IMPORTANT TO STAY APPRISED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 6Z GFS and NAM is west as said, and brings enough of a chance to stay interested. The mod precip looks to hang along and east of 95. Just need a few adjustments. And yes, the clipper is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, for what its worth, the 3z SREFS are way west of 21z. Really more NW. 3 or 4 of the individual members look pretty good. All of them take a big jump WRT precip, but look like not so much with the position of the low? Maybe they are just stronger. hey, you're right I missed that! my age must be showing anyway, there's that west trend we need next run of SREF's is out in about 20-25 minutes, so we'll see if it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, for what its worth, the 3z SREFS are way west of 21z. Really more NW. 3 or 4 of the individual members look pretty good. All of them take a big jump WRT precip, but look like not so much with the position of the low? Maybe they are just stronger. Buy stock in junk food now!!! 12z models are going to make some people go on a binge. I bet they come back West enough to create some hope on the coast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, for what its worth, the 3z SREFS are way west of 21z. Really more NW. 3 or 4 of the individual members look pretty good. All of them take a big jump WRT precip, but look like not so much with the position of the low? Maybe they are just stronger. Do you have a link for that? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Buy stock in junk food now!!! 12z models are going to make some people go on a binge. I bet they come back West enough to create some hope on the coast again. and the fact that you're in the food business is not relevant in case they don't p.s. that Annapolis store is pretty nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Do you have a link for that? Thanks. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/03/model_s.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 RELAX JMA IS ON BOARD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The great thing about last nights run was that the euro also took away the .90 it was showing for IAD mid week. The entire run has 0.0 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The great thing about last nights run was that the euro also took away the .90 it was showing for IAD mid week. The entire run has 0.0 qpf All of this talk about how great the euro is.....just look at that for an example,lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 euro flip flops more than any model, it's a joke! All of this talk about how great the euro is.....just look at that for an example,lol! You obviously haven't been following the models for that long, or have a very skewed version of reality. In the long run, Euro is superior. The Euro was one of the best (if not the best) in tracking the Midwest storm we had last week. All of the models keep flip-flopping... the Euro is just doing it to a greater degree with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I agree.....I think we're all in for one more c*cktease out of the models here before they all coming crashing down again. I love that water vapor image as well. Definitely a strong system coming into CA right on the heels of our meager little s/w. But you can see the PV regressing west there and some energy dropping down into the upper plains. Buy stock in junk food now!!! 12z models are going to make some people go on a binge. I bet they come back West enough to create some hope on the coast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 RELAX JMA IS ON BOARD Midlo, everything after the top 3 maps are from the 12Z run yesterday for some reason, JMA only produces out to 72 hrs at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 aaaaand 9Z SREF's are back east, w/nothing near I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 looking at the sat and radar pics this AM, I don't recall anyone else mentioning it, but I'm starting to think that the jet coming into southern CA is kicking this thing along and that's why its off the coast even though many mets have thought it would be closer all things considered http://www.ssd.noaa....na-wv-loop.html I am not a great operational met mind, so in my reading of these threads I've just taken it for granted that the southern vort that everyone was waiting for obs on was the main player here. So, when it got onshore and was sampled well, that was key. But in actually taking a look at a few of the models, it looks like the northern stream vort is just as important, and that "just landed" overnight on the Oregon coast. Basically, the southern vort starts the organization process in the SE, but we really need the northern vort to catch up (as quick as possible). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, the 3z sref giveth, the 9z taketh away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Midlo, everything after the top 3 maps are from the 12Z run yesterday for some reason, JMA only produces out to 72 hrs at 0Z yea i noticed that a few minutes ago oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 NAM through 18hrs looks unimpressive hope I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, for what its worth, the 3z SREFS are way west of 21z. Really more NW. 3 or 4 of the individual members look pretty good. All of them take a big jump WRT precip, but look like not so much with the position of the low? Maybe they are just stronger. We are done man. We are to far N/W for any hope. The eastern burbs and DC itself may see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 NAM through 18hrs looks unimpressive hope I'm wrong looks a little better at 24. More energy hanging back. Probably not enough for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 hmm, 24 hrs definitely better than 6z run at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm off to work yesterday, I couldn't get in because of dns garbage good luck to all until later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 at 30, much broader precip field on the wast and sw side. So far, a good improvement over the 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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