psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just looking at the evolution of this, the thing that bothers me is that this is becoming more and more dependent on the northern jet. There really is very little southern branch involvement and thus we are waiting for the northern branch to phase and the storm to bomb... that means the track of the h5 energy in the northern branch becomes the key and most of the models, even the 12z euro, tracks that energy north of us. The old rule is you need the H5 energy to track over or south of you to really get significant snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 dt has a south bias so im liking his initial probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 finally I can get back on this site from home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 66hrs away and this is what the GFS gives us? I'll take it considering the GFS biases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GFS is strung out and scattered--nothing like the consolidated Euro. In this type of set-up, we really need the storm to blossom to our SSW and then up the coast. So far, only today's 12Z Euro showed that scenario. The GFS hasn't been promising for us for a while. Hopefully the Euro is more correct with its storm development inland over Georgia. Otherwise, if development is delayed, this is OTS or a SNE special. MDstorm 66hrs away and this is what the GFS gives us? I'll take it considering the GFS biases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What a nightmare. Tomorrow being Friday and all, I imagine mets will have to signal one way or another by midday tomorrow before the masses tune out whether people should expect to see snow or no snow on Sunday...All eyes on the Euro, but curious how people think the TV mets will handle it if there is still all this model chaos after the Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What a nightmare. Tomorrow being Friday and all, I imagine mets will have to signal one way or another by midday tomorrow before the masses tune out whether people should expect to see snow or no snow on Sunday...All eyes on the Euro, but curious how people think the TV mets will handle it if there is still all this model chaos after the Euro runs. They will probably downplay as always unless a very strong signal comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yes, but there is a pretty fierce competition this year in Washington among the mets, both online and Television, over winter weather. Part of it stems from last year, but also Capital Weather Gang has introduced a new element that is adding pressure for TV mets to be on top of even slightest potential for snow. There was a big article about it by the Washington Post ombudsman a few days ago. Not only is it pressure from blogs, more and more people get their weather from friends on Facebook and others who just read models. It won't be a good start to the season if one station ignores a threat only to scramble Saturday evening to try to get out the word out that a 5 inch snow is about to screw up the last Sunday of XMAS shopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yes, but there is a pretty fierce competition this year in Washington among the mets, both online and Television, over winter weather. Part of it stems from last year, but also Capital Weather Gang has introduced a new element that is adding pressure for TV mets to be on top of even slightest potential for snow. There was a big article about it by the Washington Post ombudsman a few days ago. Not only is it pressure from blogs, more and more people get their weather from friends on Facebook and others who just read models. It won't be a good start to the season if one station ignores a threat only to scramble Saturday evening to try to get out the word out that a 5 inch snow is about to screw up the last Sunday of XMAS shopping. This is an interesting point, and something that also seems to be happening down here in the Richmond area. Many people are now going to DT for their weather needs, whether it be via his website, Facebook, or radio interview. The Times-Dispatch had a great write-up on him last year, which has probably lead to more anxiety amongst local mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is an interesting point, and something that also seems to be happening down here in the Richmond area. Many people are now going to DT for their weather needs, whether it be via his website, Facebook, or radio interview. The Times-Dispatch had a great write-up on him last year, which has probably lead to more anxiety amongst local mets. This is definitely true, but there's more DT could be doing to further it and increase the pressure on those guys. I think just combining his audio and graphics into a video file that he could really illustrate what he's talking about (and, perhaps, even cut a shorter one that's dumbed down for those who don't care about the -NAO just want to know how much it's going to snow), etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I hope the euro keeps hope alive but the changes in how this is evolving are not in our favor. The runs of the GFS that gave our area a significant event a few days ago involved a different storm evolution that seems off the table now. It seems the main player to spark the storm development is now going to have to be a northern branch feature. That feature has been coming in further north the last few runs on all models. That is bad news for our area. This is taking on a much more typical Nina pattern late coastal development type storm type. I hope I am wrong but that seems to be the direction this is heading. Oh well... on the bright side I think snow in NYC on Sunday might mess up the Eagles chances against the Giants and I am very confident they will smack the crap out of NY as long as there is no crazy weather to interfere with destiny so maybe this is for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 00z European will likely be a severe disappointed for most of this board and it will complete a very bad week for all the weather models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 00z European will likely be a severe disappointed for most of this board and it will complete a very bad week for all the weather models we are in agreement, oh well I am not waiting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 needed a break for the SNE thread. If the Euros a whiff here, I'm gonna cry. Just here to say good luck to all of you. I cant imagine after two successive westward trending runs that the euro is gonna jog too far east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 im hopeful but not optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 im hopeful but not optimistic Lets play a game... Its called "Boom, Dust or Bust?" I say Dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 im hopeful but not optimistic Im optimistic but not hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Boom or Bust or Dust? im going to assume last run was a blip till i see it again when does the euro come out anyway? 1a? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 im going to assume last run was a blip till i see it again when does the euro come out anyway? 1a? disastah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 it's over Its fookin' hilarious. 12z crushes everyone with snow from DCA to BOS. 00z gives everyone... ZIPPO NADA ZILCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Its fookin' hilarious. 12z crushes everyone with snow from DCA to BOS. 00z gives everyone... ZIPPO NADA ZILCH 12z must have snorted the data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 it's over 12z must have snorted the data Agree on both points. We are cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah, this one really is over. And there's not much to track after this miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 euro flip flops more than any model, it's a joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah, this one really is over. And there's not much to track after this miss. Not sure I believe what any model says at this point about the future. I would like to hope we could get a few clipper ops for the next couple of weeks since that seems to be what Nina's are all about for our area. I think that's possible and if it is as cold as it has been at least the stuff will hang around. I would love a monster to track again but my inherent pessimism will serve me well this winter so any snow will be a good thing for me. I have about 2" on the ground right now and temps in the teens...this stuff may last all the way to Christmas in some form and FOR ME...that will be just lovely. Way too many Christmas times in the past with 50's and rain. Winter 10-11...it ain't like last year it's like every other year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 euro flip flops more than any model, it's a joke! It is allowed a bad run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It is allowed a bad run or two. wx models ain't supposed to be like horses but I still think there is a trend west based on 0Z and 6Z model comparisons maybe not enough for MA, but there is a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 euro flip flops more than any model, it's a joke! I don't think this is accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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