greg81988 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 can someone post on what these models are showing for richmond? i havent really seen anyone mention it. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 can someone post on what these models are showing for richmond? i havent really seen anyone mention it. thanks! euro near 1.00" of precip all snow 10"-12" range? canadian good storm gfs good storm 18z nam partly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 That is probably one of the most diverse set of GFS Ensemble runs I have seen for a 72 hour event. Thank goodness the Euro is in the storm camp. The fact the NAM is eas bugs me, but if you look at 500 and 700mb...it doesn't make sense compared to what's at the surface. The storm should be much further west. 15Z SREFS (21 members): Good DC Hit: 4 (Good DC Hits went up the CT river valley and screw SNE) DC Fringe : 3 Wide Right: 7 OTS: 7 (squat for all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like the NWS changed their tune from the afternoon forecast on the weekend storm, they did have just cloudy skies now its a 50% chance of snow sat night and sunday..I guess they fnally saw the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like the NWS changed their tune from the afternoon forecast on the weekend storm, they did have just cloudy skies now its a 50% chance of snow sat night and sunday..I guess they fnally saw the euro. Wow, that is really interesting... I can't remember ever seeing a forecasting change like that on a 6 PM update for 48+ hrs out. Mistake earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NWS now has us at a higher POP than northern Jersey on the coast. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wow, that is really interesting... I can't remember ever seeing a forecasting change like that on a 6 PM update for 48+ hrs out. Mistake earlier? My guess is they were concentrating on the current system, and probably didnt look at the EURO till late, also the offices may have wanted to see what HPC said which i think updated at 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I know it is a cliche, but 00Z really is huge tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I know it is a cliche, but 00Z really is huge tonight. I'm just not sure how anyone West of BWI down here can have any confidence. If I lived in Delaware I would be pretty pumped. Also even the crappiest runs are giving Boston love so I think they should only be asking how much at this point. But what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm just not sure how anyone West of BWI down here can have any confidence. If I lived in Delaware I would be pretty pumped. Also even the crappiest runs are giving Boston love so I think they should only be asking how much at this point. But what do I know. A big deal here and SNE is screwed. But if the NAM and GFS aren't west at 0Z, I'd expect the Euro to back off some. It is an important run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm just not sure how anyone West of BWI down here can have any confidence. If I lived in Delaware I would be pretty pumped. Also even the crappiest runs are giving Boston love so I think they should only be asking how much at this point. But what do I know. Yeah, but you never have any confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah, but you never have any confidence. Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm just not sure how anyone West of BWI down here can have any confidence. If I lived in Delaware I would be pretty pumped. Also even the crappiest runs are giving Boston love so I think they should only be asking how much at this point. But what do I know. there's actually a number of hours when places like BOS and DOV are rain 850's are low enough, but 2m temps at +2C-3C my gut tells me that based on the flow pattern this year, with that block, the storm has just as good a chance of hooking NNW once past us as it does NE anyway, we'd have really decent ratios here and .5" qpf would probably yield something like 6-7" if I get 6-7" snow Sunday, I don't care what anyone else gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Good point oh McFly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 there's actually a number of hours when places like BOS and DOV are rain 850's are low enough, but 2m temps at +2C-3C my gut tells me that based on the flow pattern this year, with that block, the storm has just as good a chance of hooking NNW once past us as it does NE anyway, we'd have really decent ratios here and .5" qpf would probably yield something like 6-7" if I get 6-7" snow Sunday, I don't care what anyone else gets Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 there's actually a number of hours when places like BOS and DOV are rain 850's are low enough, but 2m temps at +2C-3C my gut tells me that based on the flow pattern this year, with that block, the storm has just as good a chance of hooking NNW once past us as it does NE anyway, we'd have really decent ratios here and .5" qpf would probably yield something like 6-7" if I get 6-7" snow Sunday, I don't care what anyone else gets Would be nice to get in on the action...I'm not sure how many more storms my area can be on the fringe only to bounce back and end up with good totals. Still only Thursday PM I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Would be nice to get in on the action...I'm not sure how many more storms my area can be on the fringe only to bounce back and end up with good totals. Still only Thursday PM I guess I think we'll all be in the same boat on this one in the end either its a hit or its not only the bliz of 78' comes to mind when IAD got considerably less than BWI (OK, maybe that clipper in 3/84) but you guys don't average more than me for nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Would be nice to get in on the action...I'm not sure how many more storms my area can be on the fringe only to bounce back and end up with good totals. Still only Thursday PM I guess I can't think of a time when you actually were fringed in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I can't think of a time when you actually were fringed in reality. Only on the stinking models it's a pattern that I could certainly do without Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 I know it is a cliche, but 00Z really is huge tonight. I got excited with the Euro but let down at 18z. I might go to bed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I got excited with the Euro but let down at 18z. I might go to bed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think if that boundary that's dying in the SE hangs around, we're in bidness http://beta.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=default&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 21z SREF'S way EAST again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 21z SREF'S way EAST again 00Z NAM running so SREFs are already irrelevant, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Sometimes you have a gut feeling that storm just isn't going to work out regardless of the model wavering from one solution to the next.. this is one of those times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 00Z NAM running so SREFs are already irrelevant, IMO. Actually the core of the SREF's came west, but the spread REALLY tightened up bringing most of the precip back off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Sometimes you have a gut feeling that storm just isn't going to work out regardless of the model wavering from one solution to the next.. this is one of those times Thanks for checking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I am curious to see what the Euro has for the early week clipper. It was juicy at 12z and if the weekend storm misses it could be a decent hit for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 My gut says we get brushed at best. Just a gut feeling - no science involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 My gut says we get brushed at best. Just a gut feeling - no science involved. Thanks for checking in - now go search for missed dew point readings over Arizona to regain hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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