yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Plenty of room to shift west. I know. If I remember correctly, the darker colors to the west mean that t he majority of the members have the low over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well the LWX afternoon disco was quite tempered for the weekend... said it would miss east of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I know. If I remember correctly, the darker colors to the west mean that t he majority of the members have the low over there? I believe so. The way I read it is the darker colors or higher ensemble spreads indicate higher uncertainty with the SLP values with the OP as the baseline. If the center of highest SLP uncertainty is to the NW of the center of the low, it indicates the direction where it is likely to trend as the event gets closer - IF it shifts any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Imagine my surprise to come home and see the 12Z Euro... awesome. It's getting to be about that time... 2010 ending it with a bang? I believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Imagine my surprise to come home and see the 12Z Euro... awesome. It's getting to be about that time... 2010 ending it with a bang? I believe it. time to return to those first guess thoughts from earlier in the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Indeed. I realize today is the first day of measurable snowfall for most. But I called the 19th forever ago. Thats called a persistence forecast. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well the LWX afternoon disco was quite tempered for the weekend... said it would miss east of us Great news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well the LWX afternoon disco was quite tempered for the weekend... said it would miss east of us I guess they didnt look at the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well the LWX afternoon disco was quite tempered for the weekend... said it would miss east of us yay old info In contrast...European model (ecmwf) continues to depict more southern track to a much weaker system...leaving middle-Atlantic dry. For now will increase cloudcover but will lead all expect wrnmost zones/upslope favored areas dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What's the best site to look at the EURO for free? All of the ones I looked at, I didn't care for that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 please do not crucify me for jumping ahead a little but I really do think the midweek storm next week has potential also. The GFS has indicated a pretty energentic system for a few runs, granted it is south but that is the typical model bias at this range. Euro now is in agreement with the idea of good upper level support for that tues/wed system. I doubt the enhanced precip ammounts from the inverted trough are accurate but a moderate snowfall is very possible with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I know. If I remember correctly, the darker colors to the west mean that t he majority of the members have the low over there? Regarding the SREF images, the contours are the mean of the ensemble forecasts, color fill is the spread. It shows where overall the ensemble thinks the low will be, but also shows that there are a few members putting it NW of the mean position. So the uncertainty in the forecast has a NW bias, which is very nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What's the best site to look at the EURO for free? All of the ones I looked at, I didn't care for that much. I like the ewall best of the free sites...you can see the h5 pressure and vorticity, the H7 RH, and the SLP. From that you can usually get a decent idea of what it is showing. There really are no "good" free sites but that is probably the best. It updates really late sometimes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Regarding the SREF images, the contours are the mean of the ensemble forecasts, color fill is the spread. It shows where overall the ensemble thinks the low will be, but also shows that there are a few members putting it NW of the mean position. So the uncertainty in the forecast has a NW bias, which is very nice to see. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 please do not crucify me for jumping ahead a little but I really do think the midweek storm next week has potential also. The GFS has indicated a pretty energentic system for a few runs, granted it is south but that is the typical model bias at this range. Euro now is in agreement with the idea of good upper level support for that tues/wed system. I doubt the enhanced precip ammounts from the inverted trough are accurate but a moderate snowfall is very possible with that setup. im already wondering if we can break the december snow record in back to back years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hey guys, Euro ensembles develop the low about 80-90 miles east of HSE then move ne to near and just outside the BM. It still would probably be a decent hit near BWI-DCA and big hit near the coast of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I heard they use pickle juice on the roads now. Dont know if its true. Its beet juice and yes, its true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hey guys, Euro ensembles develop the low about 80-90 miles east of HSE then move ne to near and just outside the BM. It still would probably be a decent hit near BWI-DCA and big hit near the coast of MD. thx for the info.. nice of you to chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 im already wondering if we can break the december snow record in back to back years. I had 28" last december... it would be hard to break that I would think. DCA only recorded 16.6" so that is very possible (granted unlikely) if we were to get hit back to back... say 12" then 5". One can dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 time to return to those first guess thoughts from earlier in the week I never let go of them At least not the 2-4" call from Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 hpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 I had 28" last december... it would be hard to break that I would think. DCA only recorded 16.6" so that is very possible (granted unlikely) if we were to get hit back to back... say 12" then 5". One can dream... im just being a weenie.. for shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I had 28" last december... it would be hard to break that I would think. DCA only recorded 16.6" so that is very possible (granted unlikely) if we were to get hit back to back... say 12" then 5". One can dream... I don't think it will happen in DC / Balt. Philly would also be extremely tough to beat as they had gotten over 23" on 12/19/09 alone. But taken verbatim, today's 12z EC hammers the delmarva, NJ, and LI. As for Cape Cod or Boston, I'd be worried about mixing issues because of how the low hooks the warm 850 mb air around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like a big zilch on the 18z NAM. Worse than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 thx for the info.. nice of you to chime in. I go wherever the snow goes. I'm hopeful for something good up my way, but this has been your year. Enjoy it. Maybe squeeze out another one near Christmas?? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like a big zilch on the 18z NAM. Worse than 12z. How often is tha NAM critical in this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How often is tha 18z NAM critical in this any range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You just got cursed. Henry Margusity put you in his bullseye on his map. And then said this lol: A "Hype Watch" has been issued from 5pm Thursday through 2pm Friday. A Hype Watch means model conditions and trends are favorable for Hype Warnings within 5 mins of any model run. The Hype Watch covers an area east of a line from BOS to NYC to DCA to RDU and ORF. People living in the Hype Watch should be alert for changing Hype Conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 true mn transplant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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