Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Is there anything better than seeing snow falling outside your window as the Euro serves up a SECS? getting 5"+ this weekend would do it maybe. still too soon to go overboard but this is great news... ppl may have declared victory on no snow too quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 getting 5"+ this weekend would do it maybe. still too soon to go overboard but this is great news... ppl may have declared victory on no snow too quickly Still 60+ hours out so time for a few more minor adjustments. It seems to me the upper levels have shown a better scenario for a while now, but the surface was lagging behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Euro is usually deadly at this range. Hope this locks in at 00Z tonight. GFS jumping on at 18Z would actually be meaningful, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Still 60+ hours out so time for a few more minor adjustments. It seems to me the upper levels have shown a better scenario for a while now, but the surface was lagging behind. tricky set up... i've waffled a lot even if still hoping for a better scenario. signs are clearly there but next run could have enough small shifts to screw it up. right now the 500 maps look pretty good across the board to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 As I stated in an earlier post, we need the polar vortex to retrograde and phase in earlier so as to capture this storm further to the southwest and then bring it up. As of now we are screwed and SNE is looking good. As the Euro seems to have led the way over the last 12 hours, it would be great to see a significant westward trend on today's 12Z Euro compared to last night's Euro. MDstorm That. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 tombo's map shows us with more like .75 to 1.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 tombo's map shows us with more like .75 to 1.00 .5 line looks just west of dc/balt then northeast (you're to right of it)... 1" covers all md east of the bay and de... pretty tight gradient, saw numbers quoted around .7" for dc/balt .. .25" back to west of the blue ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 tombo's map shows us with more like .75 to 1.00 was I supposed to turn off the snow magnet after last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 HPC going more toward major east coast winter storm...http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 was I supposed to turn off the snow magnet after last year? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 was I supposed to turn off the snow magnet after last year? Hoff, looks like this might be a MAJOR Hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 see yoda's sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 oh man im getting giddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 oh man im getting giddy And yes, good thing I sigged what you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What a wild week of model worshiping this has been. Nice to have the Euro on board with something lovely... to heck with the GFS. HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 see yoda's sig I called December 19th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Crazy that this storm is predicted to be on December 19th. Quite possibly another crazy Christmas disruption.... BRING IT ON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Lets cash in on the remaining 2010 magic while we still can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I called December 19th! we are sticking together on this one Katie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 we are sticking together on this one Katie! Indeed. I realize today is the first day of measurable snowfall for most. But I called the 19th forever ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Indeed. I realize today is the first day of measurable snowfall for most. But I called the 19th forever ago. you did, but calling a date mo's in advance is generally a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You guys may go out with one last bang for 2010. What a year for you guys! Enjoy it man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Per the Philly thread, the SREFs which just came out are optimistic. For what it's worth. Not much, I suppose. But way west, and showing .5 QPF generally through our region at 87 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 you did, but calling a date mo's in advance is generally a guess. Duh. But it feels great when you guess correctly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Look for my first guess tomorrow night. Exciting times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Duh. But it feels great when you guess correctly! im just surprised hwo well the euro weeklies showed this retrograding block potential.. i think it's happening a smidge faster than progged but still a good show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hmmm... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/15/images/sref_bsp_072s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/15/images/sref_bsp_075s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 im just surprised hwo well the euro weeklies showed this retrograding block potential.. i think it's happening a smidge faster than progged but still a good show As you said... the weather is uber humbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hmmm... http://www.nco.ncep....ef_bsp_072s.gif http://www.nco.ncep....ef_bsp_075s.gif Plenty of room to shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 sref has diminishing value further out but that's not a bad signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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