PhineasC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 3:33 PM, PhineasC said: I don't think this has ever looked good for NE. I think even NYC will be fringed at best. Terrible call based on the 12Z GFS. I am praying Euro doesn't remain OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 1:35 PM, Ji said: not one model right now shows an I95 except for the GFS which barely has us getting into the action. We need some major changes in the next 48 hours Didn't even take 48 hours to get the major changes you were requesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I for one would like to see some consistency in each run from here on out before saying that the GFS finally got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 5:25 PM, H2O said: I for one would like to see some consistency in each run from here on out before saying that the GFS finally got it. Come on now, the GFS is only a mere 48-60 hours from getting into its target zone. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Anyone see the clown maps? Almost looks like another 12/19 day (with a little less). http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Mike Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 A number of the 12Z GFS Ensemble members are well west of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:10 PM, Dr No said: Anyone see the clown maps? Almost looks like another 12/19 day (with a little less). http://grib2.com/gfs...-SNOW_120HR.gif That map just pisses me off. Nice cutoff at the Mason Dixon line so I get nothing at the house. That happened last year too for one of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:25 PM, Master of Disaster said: That map just pisses me off. Nice cutoff at the Mason Dixon line so I get nothing at the house. That happened last year too for one of the storms. it's also only out to 120 hours, but the storm goes beyond 120.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The GFS ensembles look good for our area. The Euro concerns me though. We are getting close to its "deadly range" and it is not on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Still written in pencil but the cap is off of the pen now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:27 PM, mapgirl18 said: it's also only out to 120 hours, but the storm goes beyond 120.... Thats a really great point actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:30 PM, Master of Disaster said: Thats a really great point actually. See. I can be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 im contemplating a first guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:31 PM, Ian said: im contemplating a first guess Will you write in pen or pencil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:31 PM, Ian said: im contemplating a first guess Will that include a Thursday and a Weekend, or just a Weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:31 PM, Ian said: im contemplating a first guess premature accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:33 PM, leesburg 04 said: Will you write in pen or pencil invisible ink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:34 PM, Don Cherry said: Will that include a Thursday and a Weekend, or just a Weekend? weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:35 PM, H2O said: premature accumulation At first read... I gagged. On 12/14/2010 at 7:36 PM, Ian said: invisible ink cheater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:33 PM, leesburg 04 said: Will you write in pen or pencil Erasable ink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:38 PM, mapgirl18 said: At first read... I gagged. cheater. 3-6 / 4-8 seem like good numbers but not having the euro is problematic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:31 PM, Ian said: im contemplating a first guess 2-4 if non-snow precip mixes in, otherwise 5-8 (at DCA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:35 PM, H2O said: premature accumulation Now for you, thats really pretty hilarious. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:39 PM, Ellinwood said: 2-4 if non-snow precip mixes in, otherwise 5-8 (at DCA). i havent even contemplated mixing but i guess that's always a concern around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:39 PM, Ellinwood said: 2-4 if non-snow precip mixes in, otherwise 5-8 (at DCA). so if that's at DCA..............what about your area and my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 4" tops at DCA-early call. I bet GFS goes S at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 On 12/14/2010 at 7:43 PM, Kmlwx said: so if that's at DCA..............what about your area and my area The hell should I know... this is my first time forecasting a big snow event for D.C. You all should know your area's biases On 12/14/2010 at 7:42 PM, Ian said: i havent even contemplated mixing but i guess that's always a concern around here Considering where the GFS has been, it wouldn't take much to nudge the storm further N/W and introduce some mixed precip into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 [weenie who wants a white wedding anniversary] 12+ at BWI [actual early forecast] 4ish at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Early Guess - DCA: 3.2 inches BWI: 2.9 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 15z SREFs at 87 hrs looks good (its WAY out there I know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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