Ian Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Euro continues to advertise something next weekend. Pattern looks at least fairly favorable with blocking moving west in the period. Discuss potential regional interests/effects here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 When euro shows snow and Gfs dosent..Gfs usually wins. When euro shows rain and Gfs shows snow...euro wins. When they both show snow..euro depiction is usually right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 looks damn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 QPF for RIC note 12z Euro just to satisfy my curiosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 looks damn good Like to see more support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 We talked a lot last year about how the euro is NOT a qpf model...I'm sure we will say that again this year since it looks like New York to PHL gets pounded and we get a nice snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Ji's new thing is to reply inside the post he is replying to....makes it hard to see what he posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I'm waiting for the north+west trend to occur on the Euro. GFS will be 2 days behind Euro up until Thursday Rain-to-snow event for the region? I could see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 Ji's new thing is to reply inside the post he is replying to....makes it hard to see what he posted yeah wtf i'd like to see more support as well but the euro should be better than the gfs overall still. that said the gfs output sorta matches the pattern of recent so maybe. euro looks like the weeklies did at the start of the mo. see yoda's sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 yeah wtf i'd like to see more support as well but the euro should be better than the gfs overall still. that said the gfs output sorta matches the pattern of recent so maybe. euro looks like the weeklies did at the start of the mo. see yoda's sig. Sounds like the Ukie and Canadian support the euro solution somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Rain-to-snow event for the region? I could see it happening. That scenario never happens around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 That scenario never happens very often around here fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 don't know what's up with accuwx Euro maps but they sure aren't updating the 12Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 fixed When it does the accumulations are insignificant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Ji's new thing is to reply inside the post he is replying to....makes it hard to see what he posted Its so he can't be quoted for being at a later time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 When it does the accumulations are insignificant. true, but a couple do come to mind 12/5/09 is the most recent 1/1/70 (4") and another in 1/90 or 91 gave me around 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Shouldn't be long before the big negativity posts start popping up...my guess is we will get some it's a long shot or I don't like the look posts real soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Wes has already nixed it. Says we need perfect timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 This setup is so much better than anything we have seen so far this winter. I dont know how anyone can just nix this. I for one think a threat in the next 2 weeks is very real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 How are the ensembles supposed to be used? I know that in years past when the op shows an inland track all of us weenies would show the ensembles being east and we would always get smacked down saying that the inland solution is the more believable. I'm really confused as to their purpose. If the op euro was showing a App runner but the ensembles were where they are now what would the discussion be? Also it seems to me that more often than not the next run of ensembles will look totally different or somewhat different so when that happens which one is more right the one that was just run or the previous run or is it the next run? Seriously what are we to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 How are the ensembles supposed to be used? I know that in years past when the op shows an inland track all of us weenies would show the ensembles being east and we would always get smacked down saying that the inland solution is the more believable. I'm really confused as to their purpose. If the op euro was showing a App runner but the ensembles were where they are now what would the discussion be? Also it seems to me that more often than not the next run of ensembles will look totally different or somewhat different so when that happens which one is more right the one that was just run or the previous run or is it the next run? Seriously what are we to look at. BASICALLY If OP shows HECS/MECS but ensembles shows out to sea--use ensembles IF OPS shows inland runner but ensembles are east or coastal-use the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This event won't work... 1) Strong La Nina 2) GFS SE Bias 3) Euro North Central Bias 4) Dead STJ 5) Strong December sun angle 6) Warm ground temps 7) Non-existant boundary layer temps 8) It doesn't snow in the tropics 9) It's PTB's turn 10) Tropical forcing is unfavorable 11) My soil is parched next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 gfs just hopped on board. Im officially going to track despite all of the factors undermining the possibility of a mecs actually happening (stated in the above post)... but we do have a strong -ao/-nao combo which may just give us a break moreso than this system seeing that we actually have a decent blocking pattern set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Everything makes sense except the strong december sun angle. It doesnt get any weaker. This event won't work... 1) Strong La Nina 2) GFS SE Bias 3) Euro North Central Bias 4) Dead STJ 5) Strong December sun angle 6) Warm ground temps 7) Non-existant boundary layer temps 8) It doesn't snow in the tropics 9) It's PTB's turn 10) Tropical forcing is unfavorable 11) My soil is parched next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 ooo, gfs looks hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This is the most important event of my life...over marriage kids etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 westerward drifting blocks ftw... im starting to get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS and Euro in agreement does mean something at this range. If they keep the storm around for the most part for the next few days we can start to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 westerward drifting blocks ftw... im starting to get excited Ian on board?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 sick sick -- still so far out but would be a beaut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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