Itunis Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 So...want to take my girlfriend skiing sometime after New Years. Looks pretty rough currently, but then again it's only December. Do you guys living/working up there think there will be a decent % open by early January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 I orginally thought that 8 inches would be about right for this winter @ KTRI. I'm thinking less now. The +AO is not going anywhere anytime soon. The +NAO is the same. Seems to me like this will be one of those winters where 1-2" are the norm and we better be happy if we get one of those. At this point, a spring winterstorm is where I'm pinning my hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 At this point, a spring winterstorm is where I'm pinning my hopes. meanwhile, some of the Southeast could be getting a little snow as early as Christmas weekend, and maybe just after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 meanwhile, some of the Southeast could be getting a little snow as early as Christmas weekend, and maybe just after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 I updated a couple of the wx threads, title, sub, and tags. Obs/Disco thread needs to be obs/short-range & near term type disco, nothing more, nothing less. Mid-long range thread is our mid-range possibilities, keep it on-topic, and meaningful in the 5-10 day range, with a little latitude. Pattern change thread is locked, started off kind of shaky and finished with a JB show. If you want to seriously read/chat about the long range, check out the main wx-sub. Sidebars about the long range and how it pertains to the SE, please keep it here in banter. Still trying to figure out the best path going forward, any thoughts are much appreciated. The one thing we do not want is folks talking about the same thing in multiple threads/multiple things in the same thread, as well as straying off-topic. As of now, it is split between a mid-range, short term disco/obs, and banter not otherwise stated. I do not want to discourage anyone from making a specific thread, even on a spur of the moment whim... That is what makes this board so great, and I in no way want to frown upon that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 I updated a couple of the wx threads, title, sub, and tags. Obs/Disco thread needs to be obs/short-range & near term type disco, nothing more, nothing less. Mid-long range thread is our mid-range possibilities, keep it on-topic, and meaningful in the 5-10 day range, with a little latitude. Pattern change thread is locked, started off kind of shaky and finished with a JB show. If you want to seriously read/chat about the long range, check out the main wx-sub. Sidebars about the long range and how it pertains to the SE, please keep it here in banter. Still trying to figure out the best path going forward, any thoughts are much appreciated. The one thing we do not want is folks talking about the same thing in multiple threads/multiple things in the same thread, as well as straying off-topic. As of now, it is split between a mid-range, short term disco/obs, and banter not otherwise stated. I do not want to discourage anyone from making a specific thread, even on a spur of the moment whim... That is what makes this board so great, and I in no way want to frown upon that. ....yet, unless you're part of a select few, it actually seems to be frowned upon. There seems to be quite a lot of over-moderation lately on this board(all of AmWx BB), IMO. Then again, I'm just a weenie so what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 meanwhile, some of the Southeast could be getting a little snow as early as Christmas weekend, and maybe just after. Which of courese would be right on time for some. I hope you are correct as usual. It's been a frustrating December thus far - but something I have zero control over. Just seems systems are not quite living up to expectations at this point. Looks to me like cold chasing rain on this next system. I'll be interested if it is one or two systems though. Nonetheless, I don't think this winter is a long term trend. I'll survive. Man, it has been raw for the past couple of days. The +PNA as you all have mentioned may give us a chance. The NAO and AO are positive for quite some time I think - spring may be the time when the pattern is broken IMO or maybe for a couple of weeks in January. The La Nina pattern appears to be poised to weaken considerably by then. We'll see if the atmosphere has time to react before all of the cold air is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 ....yet, unless you're part of a select few, it actually seems to be frowned upon. There seems to be quite a lot of over-moderation lately on this board(all of AmWx BB), IMO. Then again, I'm just a weenie so what do I know. No, you are not, and folks like you have a better understanding than most, myself included. Over-moderation is not something Lookout or I do, and if you feel I am doing such, please pm me so that we can have a look, cause as we all are, human, and mistakes happen. What happens outside of the SE sub, I have little control of, however, when decisions are made, they are unanimous from a disco within the staff. Sure, if a post is blatant, action is pretty much instant, but some issues require more discussion, and when action is taken, the better interest of the 98% of our casual viewers is paramount. The select few are not here, at-least in this sub-forum, I assure you. Regionalism is frowned upon, everywhere, and if I see it here, as well as an "in" crowd ganging up new members, I will stop it in the tracks, promise... Starting a new thread takes some getting use to. That initial post is important, quality will add to the substance of discussion. Graphics, a little analysis, even if it is your first time, will usually yield great results. Example, MCS inbound, time sensitive, post a early eve vis shot, radar, and IR... Done, and likely a great disco for those impacted, and elsewhere who just want a look. We have a lot of members who do not post, and guests who view which do not sign up. Our goal as a staff is to foster an environment that promotes members to share/discuss there thoughts/question, and for new users to join the community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 ....yet, unless you're part of a select few, it actually seems to be frowned upon. There seems to be quite a lot of over-moderation lately on this board(all of AmWx BB), IMO. Then again, I'm just a weenie so what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Care to elaborate, hand-clap supports everything in the op... I agree, and welcome/respect the constructive critism, if I am flucking up, I hope folks will call me out, as you did, learning process, and think we all can agree that a board which promotes growth and causal insight, is better than an elitist type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 funny when you live on the SC coast, where snow is so rare, the only difference between this winter and the last two is its warmer. Big difference I know, but snow is just a token gift down here. The ironic thing is this winter could actually be snowier than the last 2 for me with just one 3"+ storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Thanks for proving my point....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 ....yet, unless you're part of a select few, it actually seems to be frowned upon. There seems to be quite a lot of over-moderation lately on this board(all of AmWx BB), IMO. Then again, I'm just a weenie so what do I know. I certainly learned my lesson the hard way. this place is not what it used to be.......That's the reason I will never again start another thread on this website. I remember back in the day (Easternwx) you could start a thread in the SE forum about anything weather related you wanted and nobody asked you for hours of research or tons of stats to back up your thoughts. We were a close-knit group back then and we even decided who was going to start the next monthly thread before the end of the month. This is a weather discussion board for crying out load. As for Weather NC.....I have known him a good while and I think he is doing the best with what he has to work with, and I have no beef with him or Lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Care to elaborate, hand-clap supports everything in the op... I agree, and welcome/respect the constructive critism, if I am flucking up, I hope folks will call me out, as you did, learning process, and think we all can agree that a board which promotes growth and causal insight, is better than an elitist type. +1...I'm with ya man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 I certainly learned my lesson the hard way. this place is not what it used to be.......That's the reason I will never again start another thread on this website. I remember back in the day (Easternwx) you could start a thread in the SE forum about anything weather related you wanted and nobody asked you for hours of research or tons of stats to back up your thoughts. We were a close-knit group back then and we even decided who was going to start the next monthly thread before the end of the month. This is a weather discussion board for crying out load. As for Weather NC.....I have known him a good while and I think he is doing the best with what he has to work with, and I have no beef with him or Lookout. This is bull-sh!t Not directed at you CAD, this over-all mindset that one should refrain because it may not fit. I remember too, hell, start a new thread and just roll with it, period. I am sorry to see that it has turned into this, and will do my best to not allow such an environment going forward. The wheels on the bus are larger than anyone of us, they will keep turning, and it is up to all of us as the SE crew to keep it class-act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 I don't have any issues with the mods. You guys do a good job as far as I'm concerned. I think there's more of an issue with sarcasm and condescension from time to time. Some people who may not agree with or like a topic or analysis feel more comfortable being snarky than politely offering a different point of view. In my opinion, being polite and respectful when you disagree, or even when you think someone is categorically stupid, costs nothing, yet that minimal effort carries the great value of making the board a welcoming place and maintaining the best educational environment, while simultaneously lowering the risk of bickering derailing the threads. But at the end of the day, only you control how you feel. That power should not be relinquished to other posters, regardless of who they are or what they post. Still, we ought to have an environment where people can feel free to post or start threads with their only concern being for the rules of the board and not worrying about who's going to jump down their throats. Afterall, this is a recreation and not a stringent work environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 You're doing fine. We'll all help keep it a class act. It's not one person or even a group of people, it takes everyone to make it a nice place to go for weather. I really can't imagine anything about the weather that would or should cause someone to get pissed off AT SOMEONE ELSE. Back to watching this Potato Bowl. I hate that stupid blue field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 I certainly learned my lesson the hard way. this place is not what it used to be.......That's the reason I will never again start another thread on this website. I remember back in the day (Easternwx) you could start a thread in the SE forum about anything weather related you wanted and nobody asked you for hours of research or tons of stats to back up your thoughts. We were a close-knit group back then and we even decided who was going to start the next monthly thread before the end of the month. This is a weather discussion board for crying out load. As for Weather NC.....I have known him a good while and I think he is doing the best with what he has to work with, and I have no beef with him or Lookout. This is exactly the reason I posted what I posted. I see/saw you as a SE member/Non MET that has a better grasp on things than myself and if you get that lit up from stating a thread, what hope is there for me to do the same..........Slim to none. I don't necessarily have any issue with WeatherNC, as I as well think he's doing fine, but I just was observing a trend of the environment here that was changing towards a negative tilt. On another note, there is some good discussion in a thread on the main page about AO winter Analogs. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30594-ao-winter-analogs-when-december-reaches-35/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 For those longing for Winter Weather -- you can turn on SyFy right now and catch Snowmageddon! "A story about a mystical snow globe that makes very bad things happen in the real world when it is shaken." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Watches in NM are likely to get extended into OK/KS, with actual warning type criteria verifying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Watches in NM are likely to get extended into OK/KS, with actual warning type criteria It seems to snow in NM every week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Which of courese would be right on time for some. I hope you are correct as usual. It's been a frustrating December thus far - but something I have zero control over. Just seems systems are not quite living up to expectations at this point. Looks to me like cold chasing rain on this next system. I'll be interested if it is one or two systems though. Nonetheless, I don't think this winter is a long term trend. I'll survive. Man, it has been raw for the past couple of days. The +PNA as you all have mentioned may give us a chance. The NAO and AO are positive for quite some time I think - spring may be the time when the pattern is broken IMO or maybe for a couple of weeks in January. The La Nina pattern appears to be poised to weaken considerably by then. We'll see if the atmosphere has time to react before all of the cold air is gone. I'm not gung ho at all on this next weekend's chance. it just looks too warm to me right now, and not that much hope of getting colder . The models could be way off, but usually will trend warmer , not colder. And there's too many s/w that could amplify , and might be too close together, notice the difference between gfs and ecmwf. I have major doubts on any snow in the SE from next week, as of right now. But one of these lows (or more) should still get somebody good . We need access to cold air and it might happen just after Christmas when the PNA might help out. funny when you live on the SC coast, where snow is so rare, the only difference between this winter and the last two is its warmer. Big difference I know, but snow is just a token gift down here. The ironic thing is this winter could actually be snowier than the last 2 for me with just one 3"+ storm Its a gift everywhere in the South usually. I think many sections have their special big storms, and you probably have one of the biggest snows in the non mouintains of the SE, with the Christmas 89 storm. My biggest on record is about 15 to 17" officially I think. So some parts of SC have me beat, I know the 73 storm was major in Ga and central SC if I recall. Any individual system can really get you if the pattern and situation is right, and if ever there was reason to see hope for a major (but pretty small region) of a deep snow, this is the pattern. Cutoffs galore. Who knows, you may be in the sweet spot. Anyone could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Its a gift everywhere in the South usually. I think many sections have their special big storms, and you probably have one of the biggest snows in the non mouintains of the SE, with the Christmas 89 storm. My biggest on record is about 15 to 17" officially I think. So some parts of SC have me beat, I know the 73 storm was major in Ga and central SC if I recall. Any individual system can really get you if the pattern and situation is right, and if ever there was reason to see hope for a major (but pretty small region) of a deep snow, this is the pattern. Cutoffs galore. Who knows, you may be in the sweet spot. Anyone could. Robert, would you possibly have any analysis/teleconnections/maps (maybe even AO/NAO/PNA daily readings) available or point me in the right direction as where to find them? I just have no idea where to look. I want to look at a few things for comparison and possible analog year. Thanks for any help you can provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I'm getting the feeling that we may be a bit over moderated at the moment. I don't base it on anything more than it is 1 week from Christmas and the Happy Thanksgiving thread is still on the front page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Robert, would you possibly have any analysis/teleconnections/maps (maybe even AO/NAO/PNA daily readings) available or point me in the right direction as where to find them? I just have no idea where to look. I want to look at a few things for comparison and possible analog year. Thanks for any help you can provide. I think there's a specific page at CPC with the analog year stuff, I don't have that link, but I remember others pointing to it before. Here's a couple of links, the bottom one has specific years of AO NAO PNA and all that. Maybe somebody else can chime in with other links. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/tele_oldindex.nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Aiko on quiet night! ------------- Annie Beauneu from Saint Angel say "the weather down here so fine" Just then the wind came squalling through the door but who can the weather command? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I think there's a specific page at CPC with the analog year stuff, I don't have that link, but I remember others pointing to it before. Here's a couple of links, the bottom one has specific years of AO NAO PNA and all that. Maybe somebody else can chime in with other links. http://www.esrl.noaa...es/printpage.pl ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.n...ele_oldindex.nh Thanks, Robert. Still trying to find that page with the analog year stuff, but the other two links are very helpful. Did you happen to notice on the STANDARDIZED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TELECONNECTION INDICES page(2nd link) the length the NAO was in a negative state? 16 months is impressive and seems to be pretty historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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