WMO: 2011 was 10th Warmest Year on Record to Date

[donsutherland1]

From the World Meteorological Organization:

Global temperatures in 2011 have not been as warm as the record-setting values seen in 2010 but have likely been warmer than any previous strong La Niña year, based on preliminary data from data sources compiled by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The global combined sea surface and land surface air temperature for 2011 (January–October) is currently estimated at 0.41°C ± 0.111°C (0.74°F ± 0.20°F) above the 1961–1990 annual average of 14.00°C/57.2°F. At present, 2011’s nominal value ranks as the equal 10th highest on record, and the 13 warmest years have all occurred in the 15 years between 1997 and 2011. Model reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are also consistent with this ranking. The 10-year average for the period 2002-11, at 0.46°C above the long-term average, equals 2001-10 as the warmest 10-year period on record. Final annual figures for 2011 will be available once November and December data are available in early 2012...

Arctic sea ice extent was again well below normal in 2011. After tracking at record or near-record low levels for the time of year through the first half of 2011, the seasonal minimum, reached on 9 September, was 4.33 million square kilometres (35% below the 1979-2000 average). This was the second-lowest seasonal minimum on record, 0.16 million square kilometres above the record low set in 2007. Unlike the 2007 season, both the Northwest and Northeast Passages were ice-free for periods during the 2011 summer. Sea ice volume was even further below average and was estimated at a new record low of 4200 cubic kilometres, surpassing the record of 4580 cubic kilometres set in 2010.

The complete provisional statement can be found at: http://www.wmo.int/p...cs_2011_en.html

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

From the World Meteorological Organization:

Global temperatures in 2011 have not been as warm as the record-setting values seen in 2010 but have likely been warmer than any previous strong La Niña year, based on preliminary data from data sources compiled by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The global combined sea surface and land surface air temperature for 2011 (January–October) is currently estimated at 0.41°C ± 0.111°C (0.74°F ± 0.20°F) above the 1961–1990 annual average of 14.00°C/57.2°F. At present, 2011’s nominal value ranks as the equal 10th highest on record, and the 13 warmest years have all occurred in the 15 years between 1997 and 2011. Model reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are also consistent with this ranking. The 10-year average for the period 2002-11, at 0.46°C above the long-term average, equals 2001-10 as the warmest 10-year period on record. Final annual figures for 2011 will be available once November and December data are available in early 2012...

Arctic sea ice extent was again well below normal in 2011. After tracking at record or near-record low levels for the time of year through the first half of 2011, the seasonal minimum, reached on 9 September, was 4.33 million square kilometres (35% below the 1979-2000 average). This was the second-lowest seasonal minimum on record, 0.16 million square kilometres above the record low set in 2007. Unlike the 2007 season, both the Northwest and Northeast Passages were ice-free for periods during the 2011 summer. Sea ice volume was even further below average and was estimated at a new record low of 4200 cubic kilometres, surpassing the record of 4580 cubic kilometres set in 2010.

The complete provisional statement can be found at: http://www.wmo.int/p...cs_2011_en.html

Too bad the report only goes back to 1979.But then that's more convinent for all the warmest out there .The title is misleading as well.10th warmest on record .Wouldn't a more truthful title be 10 warmest since 1979.Thats only 32 years

[tacoman25]

Thanks for posting this, Don. Couple issues...

1. They are jumping the gun. Why would you release a statement like this before you even have November and December's numbers?

2. They call 2011 the warmest "strong La Nina year on record". Well, #1 it was a moderate La Nina, and #2 it saw a higher ENSO spike April-June than any other moderate/strong La Nina year.

[kylemacr]

Too bad the report only goes back to 1979.But then that's more convinent for all the warmest out there .The title is misleading as well.10th warmest on record .Wouldn't a more truthful title be 10 warmest since 1979.Thats only 32 years

Where did you get the 1979 year from?

[turtlehurricane]

Too bad the report only goes back to 1979.But then that's more convinent for all the warmest out there .The title is misleading as well.10th warmest on record .Wouldn't a more truthful title be 10 warmest since 1979.Thats only 32 years

I'm pretty sure it's since 1850, but the point is still quite valid. The WMO is being irresponsible by saying it's the 10th warmest year without making it clear our records only go back to 1850.

In reality, there's been many millions of years on our planet that were warmer than the past year.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for posting this, Don. Couple issues...

1. They are jumping the gun. Why would you release a statement like this before you even have November and December's numbers?

2. They call 2011 the warmest "strong La Nina year on record". Well, #1 it was a moderate La Nina, and #2 it saw a higher ENSO spike April-June than any other moderate/strong La Nina year.

Tacoman25,

WMO seems to release a report toward the end of the year and then again in March when the final data is in. I'm not sure if providing a preliminary report adds value over just holding until the final data is in.

On the second point, I'm not sure how WMO measures the La Niña. However, whether one uses the ONI, Region 3.4 anomalies, etc.,, calling the La Niña in question "one of the strongest of at least the last 60 years" requires some broad latitude.

On a separate matter, I was suprised to see no mention of the historic blocking during the winter that led to some of the significant events described for North America and Europe early in the year. The AO was far more anomalous than the La Niña, even if it has a largely hemispheric impact. Completeness would have justified some mention.

[kylemacr]

I'm pretty sure it's since 1850, but the point is still quite valid. The WMO is being irresponsible by saying it's the 10th warmest year without making it clear our records only go back to 1850.

In reality, there's been many millions of years on our planet that were warmer than the past year.

I disagree. It's not irresponsible because they specifically say that it's the warmest "on record". Sure, they could say how far back that record goes, but it's not an untrue statement.

[kylemacr]

Tacoman25,

WMO seems to release a report toward the end of the year and then again in March when the final data is in. I'm not sure if providing a preliminary report adds value over just holding until the final data is in.

On the second point, I'm not sure how WMO measures the La Niña. However, whether one uses the ONI, Region 3.4 anomalies, etc.,, calling the La Niña in question "one of the strongest of at least the last 60 years" requires some broad latitude.

On a separate matter, I was suprised to see no mention of the historic blocking during the winter that led to some of the significant events described for North America and Europe early in the year. The AO was far more anomalous than the La Niña.

The AO, as are most of the teleconnections, are heavily influenced by the weather patterns themselves... that is to say, they are more symptoms, or effects of the weather rather than causes. ENSO is largely considered to be an independent (quasi-independent) climate mode which likely affects weather. My guess is that this is why they didn't mention the AO.

[turtlehurricane]

I disagree. It's not irresponsible because they specifically say that it's the warmest "on record". Sure, they could say how far back that record goes, but it's not an untrue statement.

Alot of people and news agencies are gonna mistake it for "10th warmest ever", there's no reason for the WMO to be so ambiguous and let that happen.

[donsutherland1]

The AO, as are most of the teleconnections, are heavily influenced by the weather patterns themselves... that is to say, they are more symptoms, or effects of the weather rather than causes. ENSO is largely considered to be an independent (quasi-independent) climate mode which likely affects weather. My guess is that this is why they didn't mention the AO.

Thanks Kylemacr. That makes sense.

[tacoman25]

Alot of people and news agencies are gonna mistake it for "10th warmest ever", there's no reason for the WMO to be so ambiguous and let that happen.

And then if November/December come in cold, it may not even be the 10th warmest on record.

[superjames1992]

Alot of people and news agencies are gonna mistake it for "10th warmest ever", there's no reason for the WMO to be so ambiguous and let that happen.

It's the same way with record highs/lows. The media will spout that this is the warmest it's ever gotten at X city when, in reality, it isn't the warmest/coldest and it probably isn't even close as there have been periods of the Earth's history in which the Earth was much warmer/colder than it is now.

[Alpha5]

the 1961–1990 annual average of 14.00°C/57.2°F.

Stopped reading right there......

[The_Global_Warmer]

Stopped reading right there......

Why ?

[tamarack]

Why ?

Only a single location in western Maine, but:

Farmington average annual temps...

1961-1990: 41.10 Coolest 30-year period on record.

1893-2010: 42.75 Station's full period of record.

I suspect a lot of other stations might show a similar relationship, though perhaps with their coolest 30 years being late 19th century.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Where did you get the 1979 year from?

35% Below average 1979-2000. It's in the report.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Where did you get the 1979 year from?

Arctic sea ice extent was again well below normal in 2011. After tracking at record or near-record low levels for the time of year through the first half of 2011, the seasonal minimum, reached on 9 September, was 4.33 million square kilometres (35% below the 1979-2000 average).

[kylemacr]

Arctic sea ice extent was again well below normal in 2011. After tracking at record or near-record low levels for the time of year through the first half of 2011, the seasonal minimum, reached on 9 September, was 4.33 million square kilometres (35% below the 1979-2000 average).

Ah, I see. But they way I read your earlier post implied that it was the 10th warmest year since 1979. However, the average is calculated from 1979-2010 (standard 30 year average)... I suspect the data go back much further than that. Turtlehurricane already mentioned that though.

[aslkahuna]

A proper title for this thread should have included the words TO DATE at the end.

Steve

[The_Global_Warmer]

ZThe Antarctic was very warm as well as the arctic..they don't make up a large portion but enough to sway temps warm again at the surface at least.

[BethesdaWX]

I personally feel these types of "releases" are quite useless. 2011 saw a warm summer spike indeed, as it should have knowing geomag indicated it would happen, back in 2004/05. I'm just waiting for the 10-14 months remaining in our warm period to finish up, this is getting stupid in my eyes.

Thats when the real fun begins

[TerryM]

No attempt at confrontation - but what or who is geomag?

[BethesdaWX]

No attempt at confrontation - but what or who is geomag?

The Sun, Geomagnetic Solar Flux. I'm perfectly content with watching how things play out rather than sparring, I think it's now clear what is about to happen, I look forward to seeing if I verify or bust.