Ji Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 per facebook Time for a reality check. I have had my fill of the premature "winter is over" calls. If you check the computer models (ALL of them), you notice three prominent ridge signatures through December 15. -EPO, -NAO and Cuban subtropical high. Teleconnections on said ridges produce what is essentially a full-latitude trough with Arctic air drainage into the Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast. With an active storm track from NM and TX into either S QC or (in the longer term) VA or NC.Sounds wintry to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I posted this in the SNE and NYC thread. Really interesting read. Sounds like people are cancelling winter on every forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Eh...really not a -NAO however, except maybe in purely mathematical terms. There does seem to be north Atlantic ridging though which could help us out and would teleconnect to a trough over the eastern CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yes we're going to have some cold days even in Dec when the PNA ridge gets far enough east to pull down cold air. However, I sure don't see any signs of the negative ao or NAO and when the ridge shifts west we'll warm up again. cpc ensembles which if anything have been too bullish in forecasting the nao to go negative or to fall also keep both the ao and nao positive. . I'll be writing something for CWG on the pattern over the next couple of days so I won't post much more about it until my piece is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Reality check: Only the op GFS and several ensemble models go trough Dec 15 or close enough. By Dec. 10-15th I only see neutral or +EPO, +NAO/AO and some indications of the subtropical Cuban/MX/NYC ridge, AKA SE ridge. Op GFS and Euro Ensembles aren't that different with those three ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 i told larry that we had a raging +NAO and +AO but he did not agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 If he wishes an inch of ice on you, you usually get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Reality check: Only the op GFS and several ensemble models go trough Dec 15 or close enough. By Dec. 10-15th I only see neutral or +EPO, +NAO/AO and some indications of the subtropical Cuban/MX/NYC ridge, AKA SE ridge. Op GFS and Euro Ensembles aren't that different with those three ridges. Good post. With the polar vortex raging and with the mjo not yet near any favorable position to get any real movement to the pattern and with the easterlies in the tropics increasing. I don't see what he is looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 i told larry that we had a raging +NAO and +AO but he did not agree Just saw that . Him and DT are going at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Good post. With the polar vortex raging and with the mjo not yet near any favorable position to get any real movement to the pattern and with the easterlies in the tropics increasing. I don't see what he is looking at. Here Wes. Thereis a prominent -NAO signal on these maps. Just not into Greenland, a ridge over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Here Wes. I see what he posted but not what he is seeing. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I can't find any discussion on facebook (but I don't hang out there too often so am not real sure of my way around the site); went to lc's page and saw no links; I'd like to read what he said, and anything DT posted in response; can someone post a link to get me there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 If he was looking at the operational Eruo, he may have an argument though I'd like to see the ridging a little more the the north and west but at least there is some ridging into srn Greenland and Iceland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 If he was looking at the operational Eruo, he may have an argument though I'd like to see the ridging a little more the the north and west but at least there is some ridging into srn Greenland and Iceland. I'm skeptical on whatever the models show past 4 or 5 days. Especially with the lack of stratospheric and MJO support. The cold shot around the Dec.6-7 is now leaving after 1 or 2 days on the 12z GFS and Euro today. Yes, there's another huge artic outbreak behind it. But it keeps getting pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yeah, Wes vs. Larry Cosgrove is no contest. Wes wins hands down. And if you get Wes mad, he won't wish an inch of ice on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yeah, Wes vs. Larry Cosgrove is no contest. Wes wins hands down. And if you get Wes mad, he won't wish an inch of ice on you. Thanks but looking at the operational Euro, I can see what larry was looking at. Right now it's an outlier but sometimes they are right an I am wr---nohg, wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yeah, Wes vs. Larry Cosgrove is no contest. Wes wins hands down. And if you get Wes mad, he won't wish an inch of ice on you. Wes is such a nice guy even when you get him mad, he still wishes 6 inches of snow on you. Wes did i get you mad yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Thanks but looking at the operational Euro, I can see what larry was looking at. Right now it's an outlier but sometimes they are right an I am wr---nohg, wrong. I just wish you were wrong when you say it is going to rain. For some reason it always rains and we never get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Wes is such a nice guy even when you get him mad, he still wishes 6 inches of snow on you. Wes did i get you mad yet . No, I don't think you've ever got me mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 No, I don't think you've ever got me mad. Looking forward to your CWG piece, i do not know much but whenever i read your articles i learn a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yeah, Wes vs. Larry Cosgrove is no contest. Wes wins hands down. And if you get Wes mad, he won't wish an inch of ice on you. I was hoping Wes would post: just deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Can someone direct me to the Facebook link? (#12, above). Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 People model hugging is what Larry is talking about. I would listen to your locat private mets on tv and in the media and I believe most are sticking with their forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Here is the past 4 years snow cover that is on this date. (Notice: sample size is really small, so this is meant to be taken with a grain of salt) 2007 -> 2011 Percent of area covered my snow: 2003-2011 2003-17.3 2004-23.3 2005-34.5 2006-23.6 2007-18.7 2008-17.2 2009-11.0 2010-35.0 2011-07.8 Conclusion: On this date for years 2003-2011, 2011 has the lowest snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Percent of area covered my snow: 2003-2011 2003-17.3 2004-23.3 2005-34.5 2006-23.6 2007-18.7 2008-17.2 2009-11.0 2010-35.0 2011-07.8 Conclusion: On this date for years 2003-2011, 2011 has the lowest snow cover. Not much less than 2009. By this logic, the Mid-Atlantic should see another sweet winter. Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 If he wishes an inch of ice on you, you usually get it. I wish we could "like" posts on here-- This always makes me smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Not much less than 2009. By this logic, the Mid-Atlantic should see another sweet winter. Or not. I meant that post to be inferred as a trend. Sample size is wayy too small to definitively compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I meant that post to be inferred as a trend. Sample size is wayy too small to definitively compare. No worries. I actually liked looking at the info and maps. Just couldn't help but make a completely nonsensical correlation between snowcover on November 26 in 2009 and what we've got this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 He's gotta know that folks are just trying to use reverse pyschology on the atmosphere. Hell, it might work. The atmosphere might actually say "hey, I'll show you b*tch". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I wish we could "like" posts on here-- This always makes me smile. CAD crowd should be glad he didn't wish for a foot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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