WeatherNC Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 12z GFS ens members @ 192 (yeah, I know, getting close to, if not fully entrenched in fantasy range), op top left... Wanted to post this to show that the 12z op would be an outlier within it owns suite in the extended with regards to cold air, with a general mean putting a mid 1030's HP in NY state @ 192. Two periods need to be watched (not a fan winter-wx wise for the Thurs-Fri event, cold air-chasing precip, have fun, and surface low track through the piedmont ). First period may be in E NC late Fri/Sat, as there are a few (emphasize few) members hinting at a secondary low forming on the tail end of the front, off the NC coast and going OTS. 850's are around -3C in the Coastal Plain, so maybe something to watch, but seems like a long shot atm. Next period is going to be next Sun/Mon/Tues, 12z GFS op is an outlier and there may be a fresh source of cold in NE, maybe some overrunning, who knows. Just that temps may be favorable for frozen type in the climo favored areas (i.e. CAD) if some QPF starts to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 we hadn't an ice storm in a while That's for sure....it's been 6 years here and prior to then they were pretty frequent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I never want to live through an ice storm like that again. No power for a week, a kerosene heater to provide the only bit of heat in the house that stayed in the living room, too many candles to constantly check on, half of the food thrown away and the milk having to be buried in the ice outside. Finally managed to get to my uncle's house and stay there for the last day since he still had power through his generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 9 years ago today... http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20021204/ Last year on Dec 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxfan22 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The 1994 Ice Storm in my opinion takes the cake on devestating Ice Storms in the last 20 years. 3-6 inches of ice accumulation. That's almost hard to imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 9 years ago today... http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20021204/ I think that was the ice storm that covered my road in half a inch of ice. I will never forget that day. There was like a couple of inches covering the road after too. My power stayed on thankfully. Heard and saw trees and tree limbs come down throughout that day. Best sledding day ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 no snow nor ice for north ga): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 This next storm could be a good one for some areas. Its' got quick changing dynamics, look how the system tilts almost negative briefly as it begins to stand up west of the Apps and then approaches the southern Apps late Wednesday This will slingshot moisture (heavy rain) quickly into extreme north Ga and the western Carolinas Wed. night into southern Va and southern West Va. overnight. Meanwhile, heights are coming down in tandem on both the Globals, and just enough cold air could work in aloft to turn rain quickly to snow in most of Tennessee before all the moisture exits, and possibly a good period of snow around Nashville and points east and northeast into Kentucky, where eastern Kentucky may do very well with some snowfall. If the system is slightly colder or deeper than progged, then I think a surprise snow is more possible than either model is showing in the Tenn Valley and Apps. Speaking of the Mtns, at first they're too warm Wed night but as the system is deepening in Western SC and into central NC, good moisture and lift will probably switch rain over to snow over the mtns of NC and VA toward the end, and further north into DC and Maryland, its a tightrope...right now they're on the line, but just north and west into northern West VA and southern PA...snow. But the track could waffle. The bottom line is this is yet another big system, potent, lots of dynamics and has cold air to work with on the north and western sides. You get the idea that systems keep on showing up without much lead time?? ( I know the cutoff was well advertised). As we get deeper into Winter, maybe later this month or into January, I'm still very much on board for a major snowstorm in the heart of the Southeast. Despite the non-supporting MJO and AO/NAO indicies, pattern recognition is the name of the game this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I've already been cold enough for something frozen a number of times....just need some decent rains I like the looks of this present system as it is fatter on the bottom so far...just hope it doesn't get the usual liposuction at the Ala. line, lol. Just can't get me a decent sleet storm down here until I can see some decent rains! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I've already been cold enough for something frozen a number of times....just need some decent rains I like the looks of this present system as it is fatter on the bottom so far...just hope it doesn't get the usual liposuction at the Ala. line, lol. Just can't get me a decent sleet storm down here until I can see some decent rains! Tony looks like southern and central GA might get less again, with a tight gradient and increase from about ATL and north, but that's normal for systems tracking like this...with time and enough systems yet to track, more rains on the way. Where I'm at, its very wet and been pretty cold. Nov. was something like + 1.5 deg. on temps only because of few really warm days. The regular rains I'm getting are the flag on the field that somethings not normal in this Nina. And I see plenty of rain in the rest of the year, putting my area above normal on rains this year, a Nina year.It's been as good as a couple of Nino events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'm sure glad you are getting rains as you have suffered more than most since I've been knowing you. It all comes around, so I'm not too worried about endless drought, especially hearing you talking about having good rains, lol. And I don't doubt I'll see something frozen this winter..to me, that is just a sort of given. It is getting decent amounts that worries me, lol. Can't stand the thought of N. Atl. getting another 8 inches while we get an inch down here from a depleted line or the dry slot Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.C.IceAge Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think that was the ice storm that covered my road in half a inch of ice. I will never forget that day. There was like a couple of inches covering the road after too. My power stayed on thankfully. Heard and saw trees and tree limbs come down throughout that day. Best sledding day ever I remember that ice storm real well. our power was out for a week, that first night when the freezing rain started to freeze to things, I could hear transformers exploding and tree limbs falling, miss work that day, my work place was even out of power, used flaslights and candles at night, we used our gas logs for heat. That was the wrost Ice Storm I've ever seen in my 49 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I remember that ice storm real well. our power was out for a week, that first night when the freezing rain started to freeze to things, I could hear transformers exploding and tree limbs falling, miss work that day, my work place was even out of power, used flaslights and candles at night, we used our gas logs for heat. That was the wrost Ice Storm I've ever seen in my 49 years. I was sitting in a parking lot last year at about 1am as it was snowing heavy, real quiet out lights bright all around and then a transformer blew. Wild to see, everything went dark. Very common especially during an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM is following in GFS footsteps, and ECMWF was trending this way, so we'll see how tonights runs evolve. Looks like the chances for a major snowstorm in the lower Ohio Valley and changing to snow down into Tenn are on the increase. This is shown to be the perfect track for Pittsburg, where the forecast is partly cloudy and upper 30's on Thursday. It's too early to nail down the track and consequently the temp profiles, but either way, with the trough rapidly going neg. tilt toward western NC or western SC, this places comma head snow (or rain to quick snow) on the western and northwest sides. Rough idea of what NAM is showing so far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 looks like game thurs night will be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM is following in GFS footsteps, and ECMWF was trending this way, so we'll see how tonights runs evolve. Looks like the chances for a major snowstorm in the lower Ohio Valley and changing to snow down into Tenn are on the increase. This is shown to be the perfect track for Pittsburg, where the forecast is partly cloudy and upper 30's on Thursday. It's too early to nail down the track and consequently the temp profiles, but either way, with the trough rapidly going neg. tilt toward western NC or western SC, this places comma head snow (or rain to quick snow) on the western and northwest sides. Rough idea of what NAM is showing so far: Need to shift it east a little more Robert! I need a snow fix.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Take your plow you might need to cut a path back or to! looks like game thurs night will be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Need to shift it east a little more Robert! I need a snow fix.... You got a car? Head to eastern Kentucky or West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You got a car? Head to eastern Kentucky or West Virginia. It's beginning to get right in here now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM is following in GFS footsteps, and ECMWF was trending this way, so we'll see how tonights runs evolve. Looks like the chances for a major snowstorm in the lower Ohio Valley and changing to snow down into Tenn are on the increase. This is shown to be the perfect track for Pittsburg, where the forecast is partly cloudy and upper 30's on Thursday. It's too early to nail down the track and consequently the temp profiles, but either way, with the trough rapidly going neg. tilt toward western NC or western SC, this places comma head snow (or rain to quick snow) on the western and northwest sides. Rough idea of what NAM is showing so far: Robert, If that comes to fruition, I may see a decent snowfall here. The 12z GFS rather disappointed me as it went a little further west than the 0z, thus keeping most of the snow to our west. I noticed KMRX completely took any snow whatsoever out of the forecast with it's evening package. The previous outlook had rain/snow showers Thursday night. In light of the slight west trend with the 12z today I could see being not gung ho with a major snowfall but, not taking it completely out as any way you slice it, there would more than likely be @ least some snow showers on the back side of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 you two knuckle heads can go with us thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You got a car? Head to eastern Kentucky or West Virginia. you want to ride on snow chase? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Robert, If that comes to fruition, I may see a decent snowfall here. The 12z GFS rather disappointed me as it went a little further west than the 0z, thus keeping most of the snow to our west. I noticed KMRX completely took any snow whatsoever out of the forecast with it's evening package. The previous outlook had rain/snow showers Thursday night. In light of the slight west trend with the 12z today I could see being not gung ho with a major snowfall but, not taking it completely out as any way you slice it, there would more than likely be @ least some snow showers on the back side of this. I'd be extremely surprised if no snow at all fell in eastern third of Tenn. from this system, all the models have a strong netural to neg. tilt system and good surface low in western SC, with enough cold air for a changeover and plenty of moisture on the wrap around in Tn and KY. Atleast snow showers, if not actual good comma head snow, which is looking likely in eastern KY for sure. you want to ride on snow chase? Lol I don't chase snow anymore, it can come to me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This run is much flatter and weaker and stays south. Its close to ending as snow in parts of Tn and along the track of the 5h system which crosses over NC Thursday. This run looks too weak with the system and actually warms up at 850 pretty strongly after being quite cold just 6 hours before. Doesn't look right. But along and north of the track is the place to watch and its still not etched in stone so areas of Tn Ky Va and PA/MD have to keep watching this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This morning and tonight's GGEM have this system as merely a frontal passage with no secondary low tracking through the Carolinas. It strings out the trailing wave and vort max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajaronw10 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wish this storm would move east about 200-300 miles! Lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 0z Euro moved west + colder with the Low track for Thurs vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 frost one morning and a heat wave the next. 46 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro looked awfully close to snow for many in NC though sfc temps were a problem. Surprised there wasn't more discussion about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajaronw10 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's December 5th and it's 51 degrees at 7:10 in the morning.. That sucks! It should be about 31 degrees.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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