Met1985 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Great right up FoothillsNC! That some real encouraging words about the up coming cold snap and even maybe some snow in the mountains. Hopefully the cold air will start pouring in here soon but thanks for the great explanation on everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 the ECMWF had highs in the 20's in most of Tennessee next Saturday, and the GFS had us barely cracking freezing on Sunday, the line went from GSO to Rome to around HSV. Very cold on both models, slight timing difference. I'll take it, And hope some moisture gets involved shortly there after. Thanks for the write up this morning!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I HOPE too. We on way to Boone to get our tree. Last year 12inches was predicted up in boone and it was cold. This year sunshine and shorts!!! Amazing the difference in a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Anyone else drooling over that eye candy for North Carolina from the 6z GFS run? (December 18th or maybe after.) Another white Christmas? Again?! Better stop now, getting ahead of myself here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Nine years ago today Georgia the Carolinas (and east coast) were gearing up for a massive Winter storm, with snow on the front end turning to major sleet then freezing rain. And lots of freezing rain. The setup was classic. A strong confluent flow aloft over the Northeast which helped keep the surface high pressure anchored in the East, but this time the high pressure was banana-shaped and linked to the strong Arctic high in the Plains, so the net effect was just basic high pressure feeding cold, low level, very dry air down into the eastern and northern sides of the storm throughout the event. Out west, a split - flow, and a closed low opening up very far south sparked a Gulf low and Inverted trough through the Southeast, which brought forth plenty of overruning. Snow began early here , and we racked up 3 inches before switching to sleet, then heavy freezing rain the afternoon and overnight. At 11 pm heavy rain and 27 degrees in Shelby, the temperature got close to freezing the last hour or 2 of the event, but we spent 90% of the event under 29 degrees. The high pressure constantly fed low level dry air into the western and central Carolinas through the storm. It was devastating. Power went out before midnight all over the city and most of the county. It was dark for a few days, and each night was eery for the next 3 or 4 nights as almost nobody had power, except a few generators here and there. Surface Pressure Dec 4 2002: 5H Animation: Radar Animation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I was surprised more people weren't talking about the 00z GFS last night. 200 hours out it had some real cold hitting the east coast. The Euro didn't look too bad. One run of models more towards the LR but it's still a good start. Both models have it about to turn colder, and pretty cold at that, esp. the further north you go in the Southeast. First the mid week front will drop another good rain in the interior Southeast. Once again, the further north from Atlanta, the more rain, as both models have the trough sharpening up in western Carolinas so that would favor heavier rates and longer duration in the Carolinas and east Tn, may even end as snow in the mtns on Wed. That brings in briefly colder air, esp. Tn-NC and north. Then the more interesting part of the change shows up. A strong Arctic high of 1040-1045 slides down into central Canada as the PV moves toward Hudson bay, so a midnation trough carves out, and that will be a nice arctic outbreak in the Plains. The models don't yet show a low developing on the front in the Miss. Valley, but I'd say chances are that will change soon. Then that front sweeps through the Deep South in about 1 week from now, so the coldest air of the season makes good enroads here. Its very cold associated with that high, 498 heights, -20 at 850, etc. So the Tenn Valley could be looking at a pretty cold Saturday next week with highs in the 30's , and the rest of the Southeast will be below normal for a couple days with this cold outbreak, and snow flurries in the mtns. But while that's going on, a split type of flow is shown on both models (more on GFS) out west, where northern stream s/w are still topping the flow and keeping cold air coming into the US...it doesn't make us that cold, but the vortex in eastern Canada argues for it not to get warm here either, about seasonable. But with pretty cold air covering the northern 2/3 or 3/4 of the country and with southern stream ejections, be on the lookout for overunning to show up soon. Already hints on the GFS of it...I'm talking about shortly after the 7 day period, closer to day 10. And the ensembles had pretty strong height anomalies in western Canada and below normal heights in the central and eastern US...so that's possibly good enough for some wintry precip on the northern side of the overrrunning, wherever that ends up being. I know others are looking outright at the models for the cold and precip, and once again the ECMWF keeps overdoing the Southeast ridge and keeping it way too warm for way too long. Both models keep missing the amount of cold air following the many troughs that keep coming through the Southeast. I've noticed that all Fall season, and something to keep in mind. I guess the one big thing that could be noted for the next week to 2 weeks is the movement of the PV in Canada and the arrival of large high pressure, widespread cold air, and the weak split flow that might show up. And possible damming event this in the day 7 to 14 timeframe, depends always on timing of the high, location of eastern Canada vortex, and speed of southern stream moisture-- timing) Still no signs of -NAO though. But thats not the only way to get wintry precip in the Southeast..another excellent way is for split flow and strong western Canada blocking or very large ridge. It feels like the extreme warm solutions that keep showing up in the modeling keep either getting pushed out or changing to more seasonable solutions in future runs. It feels like we're in sort of a gradual step-down to colder weather, and it has seemed like that to me, at least, through the Fall season. This was the first year in a good long while that seemed like we had/are having a decent Autumn season. We weren't blazing all through Fall. It hasn't been excessively cold all through Fall. It's been a nice kind of up and down, gradually stepping down to Winter. December seems to be playing out the same way. Looking at the models, you'd think we'd have a blazing SE ridge and torchy temps, but it isn't playing out that way, for whatever reason. I don't see a real threat of a huge widespread SE Winter event yet, but I certainly think some minor ones are in the cards as we continue to step down into Winter. So far, things are playing out just fine as far as I'm concerned. With a raging AO+ and NAO+, we could be doing much, much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Nine years ago today Georgia the Carolinas (and east coast) were gearing up for a massive Winter storm, with snow on the front end turning to major sleet then freezing rain. And lots of freezing rain. This was in the middle of Chattanooga's 15 year stint with no winter events. I've never been happier to have missed out. my grandparents were without power in Greenville for 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The folks in Arkansas, west Tn/KY and Mo. Bootheel region are about to have a month or 2 months worth of rain in just 4 days. Major rain event there. Already just through 36 hours the GFS drops 2.5" in Ark. and its just the beginning. Some areas in that region might get 5" to 10" of rain this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The folks in Arkansas, west Tn/KY and Mo. Bootheel region are about to have a month or 2 months worth of rain in just 4 days. Major rain event there. Already just through 36 hours the GFS drops 2.5" in Ark. and its just the beginning. Some areas in that region might get 5" to 10" of rain this system. how much rain this week for us? When is it going to start and end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Robert.....couldn't agree more. Just put up a blog post addressing the very issue of people throwing in the towel..... Mild, boring December and Winter ahead? Not so fast! http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 how much rain this week for us? When is it going to start and end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 wow Robert you have changed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 wow Robert you have changed! what did I say I like rain (and snow). Any precip is good. Now for our rain it comes Tuesday and now the GFS is rolling and things are looking "interesting". As I hinted at earlier watch the models handling of the next storm (Tue-Wed) and see how they sharpen it up as it approaches the east coast, and its doing that strongly now, making it a pretty sizeble snowstorm in New England and good upslope snow in TN/NC midweek. That storm goes on to become a 50/50, and a huge dump of cold air settles into the heartland, and here comes the overrunning in the lower Plains and western gulf coast of TX. By then, the arctic front will be in question, where does it settle? Big unknown, but that high is powerful and 1036 to 1040 in the western Plains, and how far southeast does the cold push is a result of the strength of the midweek storm as we get to next weekend when its in Eastern Canada. Basically huge sprawling high pressure in the Plains with a steady decrease in temps as you inch northward and westward, and warmer in the Southeast (relatively). Its a broad southwest flow aloft, over top of colder, drier, arctic air in the Tenn Valley. Now the fun part...the models keep missing the strength and integrity of the s/w coming through the South this Fall (last 2 events and whats about to happen are prime examples). So that next trough the GFS drops into the Southwest is probably going to be similarly mishandled. So, I'd be watching that one for the upper Southeast and esp. Tenn Valley region next weekend. Basically we're entering a Wintry pattern. I'm glad I didn't board the December torch train. One shortwave after another tops the big Pacific ridge and an active storm track continues across the southern half of the country for a while. Now that we're deeper into Winter, cold air is going become more available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 what did I say I like rain (and snow). Any precip is good. Now for our rain it comes Tuesday and now the GFS is rolling and things are looking "interesting". As I hinted at earlier watch the models handling of the next storm (Tue-Wed) and see how they sharpen it up as it approaches the east coast, and its doing that strongly now, making it a pretty sizeble snowstorm in New England and good upslope snow in TN/NC midweek. That storm goes on to become a 50/50, and a huge dump of cold air settles into the heartland, and here comes the overrunning in the lower Plains and western gulf coast of TX. By then, the arctic front will be in question, where does it settle? Big unknown, but that high is powerful and 1036 to 1040 in the western Plains, and how far southeast does the cold push is a result of the strength of the midweek storm as we get to next weekend when its in Eastern Canada. Basically huge sprawling high pressure in the Plains with a steady decrease in temps as you inch northward and westward, and warmer in the Southeast (relatively). Its a broad southwest flow aloft, over top of colder, drier, arctic air in the Tenn Valley. Now the fun part...the models keep missing the strength and integrity of the s/w coming through the South this Fall (last 2 events and whats about to happen are prime examples). So that next trough the GFS drops into the Southwest is probably going to be similarly mishandled. So, I'd be watching that one for the upper Southeast and esp. Tenn Valley region next weekend. Basically we're entering a Wintry pattern. I'm glad I didn't board the December torch train. One shortwave after another tops the big Pacific ridge and an active storm track continues across the southern half of the country for a while. Now that we're deeper into Winter, cold air is going become more available. Great writeup Robert, I agree 100%. Heck of a way to run a torch (i only say torch b/c reading many comments from the board here would leave you to believe that is what was happening). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 This upcoming rain event next week totally screws Central NC, according to the GFS. However, it does have a very nice -NAO showing up in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Read PM Robert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Here is the WRF snow accumulations(10:1 ratio) for the central plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Robert.....couldn't agree more. Just put up a blog post addressing the very issue of people throwing in the towel..... Mild, boring December and Winter ahead? Not so fast! http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ Good comments. Agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Here is the WRF snow accumulations(10:1 ratio) for the central plains Good: Laying down the white carpet will only improve chances for next weekend and beyond. Also Kudos Robert for taking the time and breaking down things. Still got a ways to go, but the pendellum is swinging in the right direction. The oppurtunity is gonna be there for an overruning event days 6-10 if we can get a sw to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Robert.....couldn't agree more. Just put up a blog post addressing the very issue of people throwing in the towel..... Mild, boring December and Winter ahead? Not so fast! http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ Basically we're entering a Wintry pattern. I'm glad I didn't board the December torch train. One shortwave after another tops the big Pacific ridge and an active storm track continues across the southern half of the country for a while. Now that we're deeper into Winter, cold air is going become more available. Thanks to you both for taking the time to post your thoughts for others to read. I really enjoy learning from two of the best in the SE! Thanks for the sane words of caution while offering hope. I appreciate the fact that neither of you pretend to know the long-term future and just love the thrill of the chase and what could happen in the future. I never find either of you screaming hyperbole concerning torches or ice-ages. The sage thoughts and knowledge you bring to this forum are beyond compare. Kudos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It feels like the extreme warm solutions that keep showing up in the modeling keep either getting pushed out or changing to more seasonable solutions in future runs. It feels like we're in sort of a gradual step-down to colder weather, and it has seemed like that to me, at least, through the Fall season. This was the first year in a good long while that seemed like we had/are having a decent Autumn season. We weren't blazing all through Fall. It hasn't been excessively cold all through Fall. It's been a nice kind of up and down, gradually stepping down to Winter. December seems to be playing out the same way. Looking at the models, you'd think we'd have a blazing SE ridge and torchy temps, but it isn't playing out that way, for whatever reason. I don't see a real threat of a huge widespread SE Winter event yet, but I certainly think some minor ones are in the cards as we continue to step down into Winter. So far, things are playing out just fine as far as I'm concerned. With a raging AO+ and NAO+, we could be doing much, much worse. Agree 100% with this statement. Fall has been just about perfect this year. There have been no extended periods of extreme heat or cold to make us forget what season it actually is. The leaves were beautiful, the mornings crisp, and the temperatures relatively mild...my kind of fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Both models have a step in the wintry direction, but GFS a little more so. Both do have a slight open door in the day 7 to 10 day range right now (that could change!), for some wintry fun and games somewhere in the southern Plains to Southeast or Mid Atlantic. One of the key differences is the handling of the mid week system. GFS goes bonkers with it and uses it to create a strong New England storm (after dropping a lot of rain in the interior Southeast (esp Tenn Valley) and then that ushers in colder air esp on the west side of the Apps...most of the Southeast gets to around normal though. The ECMWF pushes it more east bound and waits til later to push colder air in here, but still both end up with another s/w that is pretty quickly approaching western Texas, and then the overrunning could begin in a broad southwest flow. Thats too far out to trust right now, but yesterday I was wondering if the models would begin to show this overrunning start up and there are strong hints at it now. It may or may not happen. That next system may dig too far west and pump a ridge into the Southeast , but the Eastern Canada vortex and the Polar vortex moving more east kinda argues against it now. But both models are pretty strongly showing cold air west of the Apps most of the timeframe, so the highest chances of any Wintry precip at first would be best there , unless damming comes into the picture or an inverted trough, which just might. Lots of options on the table. Beyond all this though it appears the PNA general pattern will remain, west Coast ridge (or west Canada) and trough in the mid section or east...depends on afew things. But its' not a boring pattern at all. Its' the wildest Nina pattern I can recall, just strong system after strong system keeps showing up. Unfortunately its still not raining a lot in places that need it like central Ga to central and eastern Carolinas...but that might change as we get deeper into Winter and storm tracks shift more south and east. notice a weaker day 5 system on ECMWF, versus GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Robert and GSP on the same page: THERE EXISTS WELL BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FCST AS CHILLY RIDGING COULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING GULF AND/OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE FOR NEXT SATURDAY...STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Great write ups from everybody including the Mets . Very helpful and i am learning a lot from you guys! Off topic but i have always followed weather a lot and always been interested in it but a have learned so much in my short time here! Well the pattern looks very active and very interesting! Hope to see some cold and snow around here soon. Keep up the great work guys and thanks for taking time out to give us up to date forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The GFS has it raining constantly here from Monday night to Thursday morning. The total precip is 3.18 inches, so it looks like 72 hours straight of light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Quite a cold blast the 0z GFS's predicting during the last few frames (348-384). Too bad it's way out in the fantasy range. Imagine if this were to verify. Fun to look at but goodness I would need two blankets wrapped around me to stay warm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 All this talk this last month or so about how warm it has been and winter is over before it has even gotten here. Lows of 26-26-29 that last three nights, crisp days, a mix of rain-snow & sleet early this week with temp never getting above 40 for that day. Temp. at 34 now and probably going below freezing again tonight. Relax, old man winter is just getting warmed up and will eventually show up after he has tuned up the engine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Quite a cold blast the 0z GFS's predicting during the last few frames (348-384). Too bad it's way out in the fantasy range. Imagine if this were to verify. Fun to look at but goodness I would need two blankets wrapped around me to stay warm: I am more interested in the system during the 100-118 hour timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I am more interested in the system during the 100-118 hour timeframe. Ditto. Something to watch for sure..interested to see what the euro says tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 wow great write up foothillsnc (as always). would be nice to get a good freezing rain event down here again it has been many years since ive seen a great one. i think this year might be the one.(i do like sitting in the dark around oil lamps with the family no tv lol. and total dark skys all around) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.