dwagner88 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Lots of freezing fog this morning. Yesterday it caused a huge pileup in Nashville on an icy overpass. HPC still says flooding for western and middle tn. Looks like East TN will be on the edge of the excessive rainfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It was 24 here this morning at 8 a.m., and the mist rising from the much warmer lake froze as it passed over the cattails, blackberries, and dead wildflowers. Very cool stuff! By the way, I like the more crispy look of the site. Well done...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 24.9 very frosty degrees here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 HPC still says flooding for western and middle tn. Looks like East TN will be on the edge of the excessive rainfall: GGEM has rain in TN in some form or fashion from early Sun through end of Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I read somewhere that the 144 JMA looks like Dec. 26 2010! Anybody seen it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I read somewhere that the 144 JMA looks like Dec. 26 2010! Anybody seen it? Nope, unfortunately not, similar to Euro/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Nope, unfortunately not, similar to Euro/GFS. That figures!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I'll take it! I need the rain. Atlanta is about 10" below normal so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 24.6 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I'll take it! I need the rain. Atlanta is about 10" below normal so far this year. This is shocking to me. My gauge has recorded 65 inches of rain this year. Already 12 inches above normal and we still have a month left. Im only 100 miles away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 18z GFS blowing kisses at the SE. At 180 through 192 (next Saturday) shows most of board getting some decent Snow Showers. Even paints an inch in central NC at 192 hours on the accum map. Heres the precip type map for hour 180. See if it's still there at the 0z run tonight, hopefully this will cheer some folks up even if it's the gfs 7 days out. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsptype180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'll take it! I need the rain. Atlanta is about 10" below normal so far this year. I'm about 45 miles from Atlanta and I have a surplus for the year ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 18z GFS blowing kisses at the SE. At 180 through 192 (next Saturday) shows most of board getting some decent Snow Showers. Even paints an inch in central NC at 192 hours on the accum map. Heres the precip type map for hour 180. See if it's still there at the 0z run tonight, hopefully this will cheer some folks up even if it's the gfs 7 days out. http://raleighwx.ame...gfsptype180.gif GGEM had similar cold look toward the end of its run (180). There are worse patterns for cold air than the one we are in...for example, big trough along west coast / big ridge in the east....or strong zonal pacific flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'm loving MHX point an click today, this morning the forecast low was 37, this afternoon they changed it to 34. Then when it dropped to 32 they changed it to 32 and now its changed again to 31, they have been 5-7 degrees to high with their nighttime lows many many times so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Ellis Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Its another cold night... down to 28 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Ellis Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Could it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Could it be? No, it can't be...if you look at the 850mb/6hr precip maps, you'll see the innacuracy of these ptype maps...I don't see how it's snowing at hr180 in MS/AL/GA. Only snow I see is maybe in the northern apps in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 UKMet / GGEM / GFS all bring a very strong low into the vicinity of Hudson Bay around hr120/144. GFS is rather chilly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Check this out: temp goes up 10 degrees in an hour at 1 AM on light NW winds. Other stations according to wunderground have temps up in the 40s now. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'm about 45 miles from Atlanta and I have a surplus for the year ! These fronts have been loaded on the north end, and have draped back through you so you get some training. By the time they get this far they are ragged, and little or no training takes place. We just get spotty showers at the end, while a lot are getting drenched. I've only had one what I'd call heavy rain in the last 6 months, and it was for 10 minutes... max. As with snow and sleet....a few miles can make a huge difference. Rejoice in your fortune I bet you did well with Lee. I got a half inch. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 hr120 on the 0z eruo looks interesting for the mountains...maybe, hard to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 hr120 on the 0z eruo looks interesting for the mountains...maybe, hard to tell Yeah, Euro has a strong 500mb vort in northern Alabama at that time, so a definite shot for the mtns with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Check this out: temp goes up 10 degrees in an hour at 1 AM on light NW winds. Other stations according to wunderground have temps up in the 40s now. What gives? Odd temp is 48 in Chapel Hill, 37 at RDU, maybe some localized downsloping, I am at work so I cant pull up history but it would interesting to see what the temps to your NW were doing a hr or so ago most places are now upper 30's NW of you? Down to 30 here with calm winds and south of the trinagle there are lots of low 30's as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Same thing happened here overnight with the passage of the dry front and wind shift to the NE... Temp went from 30 at 3:15AM to 41 at 4:35AM at KJNX. It's dropped off to 37 now, and what frost there was when I went to bed has all melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GGEM had similar cold look toward the end of its run (180). There are worse patterns for cold air than the one we are in...for example, big trough along west coast / big ridge in the east....or strong zonal pacific flow. Agree: Models,espeacilly GFS beating the drum the 6-10 day range will be the coldest air we've seen this year with a pos nao and neg pna .Also just glancing at the 6z GFS it has the NAO dipping into negative territory by the 19th and the pna going into positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'll take it! I need the rain. Atlanta is about 10" below normal so far this year. http://www.daculaweather.com/rainfallsummary_new.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GFS does not look torchy at all through 384. Not that we'll get any snow, but it doesn't look too warm. Euro doesn't look good at 240, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GFS does not look torchy at all through 384. Not that we'll get any snow, but it doesn't look too warm. Euro doesn't look good at 240, though. I was surprised more people weren't talking about the 00z GFS last night. 200 hours out it had some real cold hitting the east coast. The Euro didn't look too bad. One run of models more towards the LR but it's still a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GFS does not look torchy at all through 384. Not that we'll get any snow, but it doesn't look too warm. Euro doesn't look good at 240, though. Both models have it about to turn colder, and pretty cold at that, esp. the further north you go in the Southeast. First the mid week front will drop another good rain in the interior Southeast. Once again, the further north from Atlanta, the more rain, as both models have the trough sharpening up in western Carolinas so that would favor heavier rates and longer duration in the Carolinas and east Tn, may even end as snow in the mtns on Wed. That brings in briefly colder air, esp. Tn-NC and north. Then the more interesting part of the change shows up. A strong Arctic high of 1040-1045 slides down into central Canada as the PV moves toward Hudson bay, so a midnation trough carves out, and that will be a nice arctic outbreak in the Plains. The models don't yet show a low developing on the front in the Miss. Valley, but I'd say chances are that will change soon. Then that front sweeps through the Deep South in about 1 week from now, so the coldest air of the season makes good enroads here. Its very cold associated with that high, 498 heights, -20 at 850, etc. So the Tenn Valley could be looking at a pretty cold Saturday next week with highs in the 30's , and the rest of the Southeast will be below normal for a couple days with this cold outbreak, and snow flurries in the mtns. But while that's going on, a split type of flow is shown on both models (more on GFS) out west, where northern stream s/w are still topping the flow and keeping cold air coming into the US...it doesn't make us that cold, but the vortex in eastern Canada argues for it not to get warm here either, about seasonable. But with pretty cold air covering the northern 2/3 or 3/4 of the country and with southern stream ejections, be on the lookout for overunning to show up soon. Already hints on the GFS of it...I'm talking about shortly after the 7 day period, closer to day 10. And the ensembles had pretty strong height anomalies in western Canada and below normal heights in the central and eastern US...so that's possibly good enough for some wintry precip on the northern side of the overrrunning, wherever that ends up being. I know others are looking outright at the models for the cold and precip, and once again the ECMWF keeps overdoing the Southeast ridge and keeping it way too warm for way too long. Both models keep missing the amount of cold air following the many troughs that keep coming through the Southeast. I've noticed that all Fall season, and something to keep in mind. I guess the one big thing that could be noted for the next week to 2 weeks is the movement of the PV in Canada and the arrival of large high pressure, widespread cold air, and the weak split flow that might show up. And possible damming event this in the day 7 to 14 timeframe, depends always on timing of the high, location of eastern Canada vortex, and speed of southern stream moisture-- timing) Still no signs of -NAO though. But thats not the only way to get wintry precip in the Southeast..another excellent way is for split flow and strong western Canada blocking or very large ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I was surprised more people weren't talking about the 00z GFS last night. 200 hours out it had some real cold hitting the east coast. The Euro didn't look too bad. One run of models more towards the LR but it's still a good start. the ECMWF had highs in the 20's in most of Tennessee next Saturday, and the GFS had us barely cracking freezing on Sunday, the line went from GSO to Rome to around HSV. Very cold on both models, slight timing difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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