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47 with good fog dripping like more rain. Pretty normal Christmas weather actually. Coolish with rain. After this weeks fun, I'm getting vibes for a split flow pattern for some good over running. It all about timing without blocking, I know, but I love the storms a split flow can bring. And if the cold air and the southern stream can lock in some repeated timing...... well, I am just dying to see one big storm after another come hammering in. I know it is possible, and must have happened before. I know N.C. has been hammered over and over in succession before.

I'd just love to see a one foot snow, followed by 6 inches of sleet, followed by a foot and a half of snow, followed by some zrain/sleet mix. Heck, I'm not asking for much. I'd just like to live through some amazing winter weather history...that isn't all about zrain, lol. I want what Joe gets every year :) You know it has to happen one day. Heck, I saw a blizzard down here...anything is possible...nothing is written...and the winter is just getting started good :) T

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While dropping our precip amounts a quarter inch for tomorrow (was 1/2 - 3/4"), RAH has ramped up their wording in this afternoon's HWO re: severe possibility for tomorrow.

"

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ACROSS CENTRAL

NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60

MPH AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE."

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Mike Maze on WRAL's website says:

"Most of the communities in central North Carolina will see heavy rain and gusting winds through the afternoon Tuesday.

"The day will start with chilly rain," Maze said. The afternoon will bring warmer temperatures, up to about 60 degrees, and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.

"Not all of the ingredients are there, but there are some strong wind gusts and possibly the chance for a brief tornado," Maze said."

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sounds good. At least we have the possibility of some black ice in the conversation now. Off to bed, hope to get lucky tomorrow and get a deer or watch my 6 year old get one

Gusty winds will probably dry everything out before freezing temps set in...just my gut feeling though.

Also soil temps are warm so probably no problem outside of the mountains.

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NAM has a good snow event for the upslope regions. The system turns negative and a new very strong vort pinwheels under it Tuesday night, keeping the snow guns aimed at TN/NC mountains for a good 12 to 18 hour upslope event. By far, the best snow event this season of the mtns...even Boone could get a couple of inches, with up to 6" in the best upslope spots. The key is the second vort dropping down to SC right after the main system lifts into West Virginia, and plentiful 850 moisture, and good nw flow.

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Posted by @wxbrad

Latest model snowfall forecast for the mountains through Wednesday morning, legend is on the left. http://t.co/XdDdeuoX #wncwx

Hey could you tell some snow totals for the mountains my internet is not picking up the website you posted for some reason. Thanks. Also it does look like we could get some real good upslope snow for the mountains. They are saying we are suppose to be dropping into the lower to mid 30s by tomorrow afternoon.

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well the rain has starte here, temp has dropped to 39 but the dewpoint has risen to 36 - so looking like unless we get some surprise strong ne winds will end up with just rain here (not that i was expecting any but was holding out some hope for a little freezing rain)

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Was just spitting when I went out at half time, and now there are two tenths in the bucket, and nice steady rain falling. The ground is soaked, with some run off now...which is most unusual when you usually only get a tenth, or two a whole a system. I can see another inch or more coming from this one too. I think the pattern has changed for us down here, finally. Hope we don't go into a dry spell now that the worm has turned. Tony

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.20 Thru the gauge in Weaverville this am. Got heavy about 6:30 & we had some sleet & huge snowflakes mix with the rain for about 10 min. until the shower died down. Currently 37.2. Frezzing rain adv. for Avery and Burke counties til 9:00 am.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/stormtotal/stormtotal.shtml

Here is some of GSP afd

RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT

FLOODING...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EVENT. STILL

SOME OF THE URBAN AREAS ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR WILL SEE PONDING OF

WATER AND BACKED UP STORM DRAINS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AS THE

HEAVIEST RAIN ORIENTS ITSELF ALONG THE LLVL THERMAL-MOISTURE BNDRY.

WITH THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW...AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PCPN IS EXPECTED

OVER THE HEADWATERS OF THE FRENCH BROAD. ATTM THIS IS NOT EXPECTED

TO BRING BLANTYRE INTO FLOOD.

SPC HAS THEIR DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK JUST TOUCHING UNION COUNTY NC.

HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE WELL EAST OF

THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TRUE...THE SRN LOW OF THE MILLER-B TYPE

SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP I-77 CORRIDOR...BUT DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT RECOVER

ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT AS THE NAM SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY RISE TO

AROUND 50 DEG F.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY

DIVE ACROSS THE NC ZONES THIS EVENING. NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEEPENING

NEW ENGLAND LOW...COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HEIGHTENED

CYCLONIC CURVATURE WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL PROVIDE A

GOOD SHOT OF FORCING FROM 00 TO 06 UTC. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WILL

BE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TN LINE. ATTM...I

DON/T HAVE SUFFICIENT ZONE AVERAGE SNOWFALL TO ISSUE AN

ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY AS THE VALLEYS WILL TAKE LONGER TO MIX OVER TO

ALL SNOW...BUT IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE FOR THE NRN MTNS TO SEE ENUF

FOR A LOW END ADVISORY.

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For me, since this appears to be the last system of the year... will I get enough rain to get to the 1 inch mark for the month or not? I'm sitting at .64" so far, so need .36 today. Forecast is calling for ¼ to ½". If not, it will be my first month under 1" since joining CoCoRaHS in Aug, 2007. Some light rain just started up right at 7:00. On another note, given the winds expected somewhere in the FA, how many damage reports of inflatable and other yard decorations will we hear about later today? :)

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