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Precip rapidly developing over Texas...looks like the Mid-South and Southeast is in for a soaker...

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This is the kind of radar redevelopment I can envision sometime later in January and February with an arctic front having pushed into the southeast and stalling, only to have a wave develop and hammer the southern apps. How pretty it would be to see that radar with widespread 20's in place at the surface?

Last storm only produced .26 here in north Johnson City, but not complaning, it's been really wet since November 1st, with 9.30 inches falling, and another soaking seemingly heading this way.

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This is the kind of radar redevelopment I can envision sometime later in January and February what an arctic front having pushed into the southeast and stalling only to have a wave develop and hammer the southern apps. How pretty it would be to see that radar with widespread 20's in place at the surface?

I hope we get that opportunity at some point this winter...

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I was looking back at some rain totals from the USGS rain gauge here in Western McDowell County, since Sept 1st we have picked up 19.56 inches of rain...I'm betting we are close to 40 inches for the year, unfortunately the stats go back only 120 days.

Does anyone have a CoCoRaHS gauge near your location? You could search their database by location/gauge going back to the first of the year. http://cocorahs.org/

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I was looking back at some rain totals from the USGS rain gauge here in Western McDowell County, since Sept 1st we have picked up 19.56 inches of rain...I'm betting we are close to 40 inches for the year, unfortunately the stats go back only 120 days.

I was just doing my totals for the year. Through Dec 18 I was at 47.23". I'm not sure what my new official 30 year average is now (I know its down a lot ) but that puts me roughly average for the year, maybe above normal. I'd be surprised if you have lower than me. There's been an inch or 2 more since then, so I'm probably at 48 to 49 " now. With good bit more to come, I may break 50" this year.

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I just sent my contact at the NWS an email to find out if we set any record high minimums this morning. My low was 61.0 at 7:42am

GSO, CLT and GSP all set a record warm minimum. Now we have the severe to contend with later on.

Are those records set yet? I thought those records were 24 hour based. So if we drop below those readings before midnight tonight wouldn't the lowest temperature even if it's at 11:59PM tonight be considered the minimum? It really looks like a good chance around here that we dip back into the 50's late this evening. I'm learning here so if I'm wrong I apologize.

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Same here, just under a tenth :( Still some precip coming in from the south but looks miss as the heading is more east than north. Did have a chance to fire up the grill tonight, dodged a couple showers, otherwise nice weather for the barbie considering mid-Dec.

I ended up with .09 :lol: I think I will just call this the best extended spring I have had in a while :hug: My iris's are coming up, the buds on the Bradford pear look ready to pop and my roses haven't quit blooming yet. :lol:

If the 0z Nam is right you're area will see very little rain out of this next event. It shows the rain from I-85 and on to the northwest from there. We got less than a half inch today and now are not looking for much out of this next event after thinking I'd see an inch or more. That ridge in the bahamas is just too strong right now.

It will probably be right :( Everything for months has gone to my west and to my east.

as i was finishing the last of my christmas shopping yesterday...it was so warm and humid i felt like taking another shower when i got home...and i thought to myself, so this is what christmas time is like in the se...not so sure i'm a fan...

:lol: At least the elec bills are not sky high this year :hug:

69 deg at 10:30am and looking for a high of 71 :ph34r:

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I ended up with .09 :lol: I think I will just call this the best extended spring I have had in a while :hug: My iris's are coming up, the buds on the Bradford pear look ready to pop and my roses haven't quit blooming yet. :lol:

It will probably be right :( Everything for months has gone to my west and to my east.

:lol: At least the elec bills are not sky high this year :hug:

69 deg at 10:30am and looking for a high of 71 :ph34r:

bah humbug :P

I cut and burn my own wood so electric bills are irrelevant to me...so bring on the freaking cold for weenie's sake :arrowhead:

Even if i had electric i'd gladly pay higher to have a good winter by golly. :snowman:

Good rain event so far, picked up 1.15 so far and radar is encouraging. Went to augusta yesterday and clark's hill is still way down along with my lakes. . So bring on the heavy rain.

Praying for a pattern change though.After the last few years, this warm weather is almost torture.

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Tried to post this in the LR, but it's locked up. Since it appears we will be sarting January off warm and for who knows how long I started digging. The 6th warmest January on record for the US as of January 2000, was you guessed it Jan 2000. I'm sure alot of you in central NC remember Jan 2000. The second half of the month was without a doubt the best 1-2 week period of winter weather I have expierenced. If memory serves me correct we had 4 sepearte events within this time span and of course one of them was the "Carolina Crusher." Whats weird is how dry it was for the month back then overall nationaly and Globaly. We had big time cold bottled up over the poles and torch going on underneath, much like today. The month started off with ridge in the central/east U.S v/s Troughiness in the west. Then mid month they flipped. Anyway heres the link with the summary. Not sure if we where heading in or out of La-Nina that year, but it goes to show regardles of how stacked the pattern is in our favor or against us, the unexpected is always possible in our winter climo.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/2000/1

I agree. While I don't necessarily believe the warming, even if it culminates in an SSW (still uncertain), will bring about the demise of a general AO+ tendency, I do believe it could lead to episodes of some blocking during January. Such an outcome would be consistent with insights from the 1975-76 and 1999-00 La Niña winters where January was the coldest month relative to normal.

NCSNOW mentioned this yesterday and Don S. mentioned the above in the SSW thread this morning. This is kind of how I see this winter turning out. We'll have a two to three week period the 2nd half of January, 1st part of February when we'll have some blocking and cold air. I'm not predicting another "Carolina Crusher" but like NCSNOW mentioned above, I would love to have another 2 week period like we had at the end of January 2000.

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Nice little line of showers coming through right now. It looks like more is slowly building well ahead of the main batch of rain.

I'm fixing to go out with my sword and pronouce my yard "rain land", lol. I haven't seen the sun in days, and if it isn't raining, it is misting, or fogging. The ground is soaked, my bad shoulder is killing me....this is freakin' wonderful :):raining: As long as this stuff keeps coming up from Pensacola way, I'm happy as a clam. I hope it stays like this until June, with occasionaly breaks for heavy sleet!!! Odd though that it isn't finding the gauge yet. Oh, well, there is more coming...and maybe my rain gauge gps homing device is on the blink :) T

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bah humbug :P

I cut and burn my own wood so electric bills are irrelevant to me...so bring on the freaking cold for weenie's sake :arrowhead:

Even if i had electric i'd gladly pay higher to have a good winter by golly. :snowman:

Good rain event so far, picked up 1.15 so far and radar is encouraging. Went to augusta yesterday and clark's hill is still way down along with my lakes. . So bring on the heavy rain.

Praying for a pattern change though.After the last few years, this warm weather is almost torture.

Ditto for me on all counts except the cut my own wood part....I got gas logs. Watching those storms to my west...and all that liquid snow behind them :flood: .....really need a fantasy storm to track at least....even if it is the 384 GFS :cry:

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We're closing in on the record high for today of 81; at 80 as of 1253. It's beautiful outside :sun:

I just wish I wasn't at work :(

In honor of Tony, I'm so tempted to go to the beach and eat some ice cream. What a beautiful day! High of 80+ at KSAV!

I know he thinks that the salt-laden seabreezes have gone to my brain. ;)

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